Bangladesh was among the 60 countries against who US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs after he assumed office for a second term. Competing countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have already reached agreements with the United States. India, Thailand and the Philippines are close to finalising deals. So why did Bangladesh fall behind?
As always, this time too we were afflicted with hesitancy. We often have a propensity towards indecision. In my view, the US is now moving forward with this tariff initiative in all seriousness, but we have not attached the same level of urgency to the matter. News reports suggest that the government assumed the initiative would be delayed by a year, giving us time, and therefore the issue didn’t need to be treated as a high priority.
There are two main reasons behind this. First, because of our indecision, there was a sense of uncertainty about whether or not we should take proactive steps. Second, we failed to properly grasp the geostrategic perspective behind the US tariff approach this time. As a result, we viewed the whole issue in our own way. But what we didn’t take into account was the fact that a major shift is taking place globally, something beyond our own perspective.
Because of this failure, it seems we've fallen somewhat behind in negotiations. Discussions with the US are ongoing, but it’s still unclear exactly where we stand in the negotiations. Nevertheless, we hope that in the end, there will be an outcome that is satisfactory to both sides.
Although it's being framed as reciprocal tariffs, the conditions set by the US suggest that the issue extends beyond trade alone. It has increasingly taken the shape of a security and geopolitical issue. According to various sources, there may be conditions such as reducing trade and investment ties with China, or limiting defence, arms and military cooperation with China. In that context, how complex is the geopolitical challenge now facing Bangladesh?
Bangladesh’s geopolitical challenge seems quite complex. Since returning to power, President Donald Trump has identified China as his primary rival. During both his first term and the Biden administration, the US maintained a similar view towards China. However, it appears that this time Trump is moving forward with this initiative more proactively.
That’s why we’re seeing him use the tariff war to bring a particular issue to the forefront - wants to change the current global trade structure. The reasoning behind this lies in the fact that China became a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001.
For 25 years, China has expanded its trade significantly by leveraging the benefits available to developing countries. So, if the trade structure is now altered, China will undoubtedly suffer. Until now, the WTO ensured equal opportunity for all members. But the tariff regime the Trump administration is now pursuing may not maintain that equality and China may be deprived of the advantages it has long enjoyed.
As a result, many believe that a central goal of Trump’s tariff initiative is to contain China or curb its rise as an economic power. If China can be restrained economically or its economic momentum slowed, then its prospects of becoming a geopolitical rival to the United States could be effectively blocked.
The US wants to draw Bangladesh into its Indo-Pacific Strategy...
This responsibility doesn’t lie with the foreign ministry alone. From the highest levels of government to political parties, career diplomats, the civil administration and the business community, all stakeholders must understand that a storm is in the offing
It was to contain China that the US developed its Indo-Pacific Strategy. More recently, discussions have been intensifying over Taiwan. If a war were to break out between China and the US over Taiwan, Washington is engaging with various countries to determine its allies and who would stand by its side. The US wants Bangladesh to align with it in this context.
The US would want Bangladesh to gradually step back from its current military and defence cooperation with China. That expectation from the US is quite natural. For this reason, the global and regional rivalry between the US and China is closely tied to the tariff storm now looming over Bangladesh.
Prothom Alo :
What can Bangladesh do in the midst of this US-China rivalry?
M Humayun Kabir
We are currently engaged in negotiations with the US over a potential agreement. In this process, there are several points we can present to clarify our position.
First, the areas where China invests are not typically areas where the US invests. China mainly focuses on infrastructure. We can make the case to the US that since they don’t invest in our infrastructure, why should we not accept Chinese investment in that sector? I believe the US will find that reasonable.
Second, we can assure the US that although we maintain economic relations with China, Bangladesh will not take any action that would harm US geostrategic interests. We can engage in meaningful dialogue with the US to reduce their concerns about Bangladesh’s relationship with China.
The issue of a security framework is coming up. Does the US want to sign a military agreement with Bangladesh? Given its position as the gateway to the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh holds significant geopolitical importance. But how realistic would it be for a country like Bangladesh to join any particular alliance? What course of action should Bangladesh take in this context?
The US has held discussions about involving Bangladesh in its Indo-Pacific Strategy. In response, we announced our Indo-Pacific Outlook in 2023. However, if the US–China rivalry intensifies further, there is a risk that Bangladesh may end up caught in the crossfire. In such a situation, we must use diplomatic skill to maintain as much equal distance from both sides as possible.
At this moment, we have no need to take sides with China, the US or India. And I believe we currently do not have the capacity to do so even if we wanted to. What we need instead is smart diplomacy and preventive diplomacy. We must develop the diplomatic insight and capability to anticipate problems in advance and keep them at bay. That effort must begin now.
In other words, we need to increase investment in our existing diplomatic structure and enhance its accountability. Our focus should shift from process-oriented diplomacy to results-oriented diplomacy. There is no longer room for passive or routine diplomacy. The rivalry among the US, China, and India in this region is intensifying day by day. To shield ourselves from its impact, we currently have no alternative but to rely on a strong diplomatic mechanism.
This responsibility doesn’t lie with the foreign ministry alone. From the highest levels of government to political parties, career diplomats, the civil administration and the business community, all stakeholders must understand that a storm is in the offing. It is not just heightened caution but heightened engagement that is now essential, so we can protect our existence and sustain our development aspirations in the face of that storm.
There is still time for the government to consult with experts across various fields -- national security, diplomacy, trade and others. While a non-disclosure agreement may be in place, if we do not discuss matters with our own people, how can we define our stance?
Economically speaking, China is an important partner for us. What can Bangladesh do to tackle the situation?
This is undoubtedly a complex and difficult issue. No matter whom we engage in dialogue with, whether the US, India or the European Union, the topic of China inevitably comes up. That’s because everyone is concerned about China. A sense of apprehension prevails about China.
In this context, we need to make our position clear. For instance, when the US or India is absent in certain areas, or when they are unable to meet Bangladesh’s specific needs, we have to point that out. I believe that if we can present these arguments reasonably and logically, we will at least be able to create space for negotiation. Negotiation is, after all, a form of rational dialogue. When presented with sound reasoning, the other side is often compelled to acknowledge it.
China is our neighbour and we have a multidimensional relationship with them. China is also our number one source of imports. So, a rupture in ties with China or distancing ourselves from them would be extremely difficult for us. We must make the US understand this. One key point is that while our import trade with China is large, Chinese investment in Bangladesh is not particularly significant. In contrast, when it comes to investment, the US is one of our biggest partners.
Therefore, we can present this case to the US with solid arguments. Discussions are already underway to expand US investment in various sectors, including energy. We can tell them that in terms of investment, the US already holds a dominant position in Bangladesh. Trade volumes may fluctuate, but investment is long-term.
Prothom Alo :
If Bangladesh forms an alliance with the US, then if the US imposes sanctions on any country, Bangladesh would be expected to comply. In that case, what challenges would Bangladesh face?
M Humayun Kabir
Our position on this matter must be clear: we do not believe in military alliances with any country. We maintain friendly relations with everyone and do not wish to enter into hostility with anyone. We must clearly state that while we respect your position, we cannot become a partner in it. This is because such an alliance conflicts with our nation’s long-term policy and would not be politically acceptable. Since its birth, Bangladesh has never joined such military alliances, and even today, the general public and political parties in the country would not accept any proposal to enter into one.
Prothom Alo :
We have learned that although Malaysia has signed a non-disclosure agreement with the US, its government regularly informs the public about the important terms of the deal. They also seek opinions from both local and foreign experts. Why do we see a different picture in our case? What kind of team do you think is necessary to conduct such negotiations effectively?
It is important to keep in mind that the United States initiated this tariff war through a national emergency mechanism. They declared a national emergency, which means they have mobilised all national resources behind this effort. But from our side, we are only focusing on the tariffs themselves. Have we taken any national-level initiatives like the US?
If we pay attention to the objectives behind the US tariff war, we should be able to understand what we actually needed to do. Trump’s tariff war has emerged as a matter of national importance for us. Therefore, we should engage in dialogue with all relevant stakeholders to define our position in national interests. This is why we are currently seeing gaps in our preparation.
There is still time for the government to consult with experts across various fields -- national security, diplomacy, trade and others. While a non-disclosure agreement may be in place, if we do not discuss matters with our own people, how can we define our stance? How will the government understand what the people want? Hence, to negotiate effectively with all stakeholders, we need to form a strong, well-coordinated team.
Prothom Alo :
Thank you
M Humayun Kabir
Thank you too