What’s happening in the various political fronts?

With the announcement of the election schedule, election-related politics of the country has turned a new corner. Awami League is proceeding along with the predictable road map of holding the election at any cost.

By announcing its decision to join the election, Jatiya Party has dispelled all speculations and confusions in this regard. Kalyan Party has created a bit of a sensation by announcing a new alliance, Jukto Front, to take part in the polls, and making it possible to break the BNP-led coalition. In the meantime, an active move has been taken up to draw in certain leaders and activists of BNP, no matter how low ranking, as well as certain other minor parties, to join the election. It is said that a strategy has been taken up to either lure them or threaten them to acquiescence. Then again, there are already a few “King’s parties” waiting in the wings. Awami League has the integrated strength of the party, administration and state machinery, as well as the financial capacity to put this initiative into effect and tackle the situation.

However, the consequences of all this is quite another question. There are questions and apprehensions arising as to whether Bangladesh will be able to bear the brunt of yet another one-sided election.

Politics has arrived at a juncture where the question that looms large is, what will BNP do now? Thousands of the party men, including most of its top leaders, have been incarcerated. Speedy trials are being held and the leaders are being convicted. Leaders and activist of all levels are now on the run. Since their grand rally was disrupted on 28 October, BNP has held 12 days of blockade in six phases and three days or hartal (general strike) in two phases. They have called for another two days of blockade on Sunday and Monday.

BNP has not been visible on the streets during these programmes, or they haven’t been allowed to take to the streets. The question is, will they carry on with these intermittent spates of one or two -day hartals and blockades? What will the ultimate outcome of such a movement be? Will it be possible to achieve their demands in this manner?

The question may be asked as to how far these programmes of BNP are being successful or if they are successful at all. This may give the ruling party a sense of smug satisfaction. But such programs are harmful for the country’s economy. And when it comes to education, that has already been affected by the pandemic, this is simply making matters worse.

Every day vehicles are being set on fire. The people are suspicious and doubtful as to whom these arsonists are actually. As these incidents are taking place during the programmes called by BNP, it is BNP who gets the blame, no matter who is actually behind it. BNP faces the risk of being held liable for no matter what mishaps occur in the coming days.

Yet another question may be asked by many – what else is there for BNP to do other than these programmes? I do not know if BNP has any alternatives in mind. However, political analyst Dr Harun Or Rashid, known to be of the Awami League ilk, says politics is like a game of chess and BNP has made the wrong moves. In his opinion, BNP should join the election as part of its movement.

How far is it possible for BNP to acquiesce to such a suggestion? BNP’s experience is that it was not possible to thwart the 2014 election with a violent movement. Then it is said that BNP took part in the 2018 election, receiving assurances from certain local and foreign friends, and also with certain pledges from the government. Given the experience of that election, how plausible is it for BNP to go ahead and join the 7 January election under this government?

The party is beginning to face criticism that it is failing to generate an effective movement, they are failing to draw the people into their movement or that programmes like hartals and blockades are ineffective. Again, it would be difficult for them to take part in an election under the present government.

Another strong allegation levelled against BNP is that they are depending on foreign powers, the United States in particular. This allegation cannot be ruled out. Overall, the situation is quite challenging for BNP.

BNP's dependence of the US and the open support of India, China and Russia towards the Awami League government, calls for an analysis of what's up on the international front.

India does not support the US stand and policy for free, fair and impartial elections in Bangladesh. They have officially made this stand clear. The US had no responded to this but it has become quite clear that the US and India will proceed with separate their stands and policies concerning Bangladesh's election.

BNP and most opposition parties boycotted the 2014 election, but India quite openly lent its full support for that election. The foreign secretary Sujata Singh has rushed to Dhaka at the time. Their activities are not that over this time. However, it is clear that they are active. No one came from Delhi, but Jatiya Party's GM Quader was taken to Delhi. He remained silent then, but the outcome of his visit by now must be crystal clear to the readers.

The equation of US and its partner countries on one side regarding Bangladesh's election, and India, China and Russia on the other side is quite complicated. China, perhaps, has the upper hand. They have given Bangladesh all sorts of reassurances, including replenishing its foreign currency reserves. China is well aware that India will not be able to compete with it in this regard. This reality may increase Bangladesh's dependence on China, both politically and economically. Also, China will be able to maintain its relations with Bangladesh using the same strategy it does to maintain is economic and trade relations with other countries too. China has nothing to lose.

But perhaps things are not all that easy for India. Bangladesh's excessive dependence on China may prove to be a thorn in the flesh for both India and the US. How will India carry out the difficult task of both opposing the US stand on Bangladesh as well as keep Bangladesh at an arm's length from China's influence?

It is said that US has made some changes in its Indo-Pacific strategic policy. It now wants to have direct presence in the region, something that India frowns upon. The contradictory stance of the US and India towards Bangladesh is responsible for this twist. The US has taken such an overt and strong stand concerning Bangladesh's election this time, that it has become a sensitive issue the country. Will the US change its position? Or is there no scope to do so? And just what can the US actually do? And what will the fallout be?

The answers to these questions are not clear as yet. Never before have so many regional and international powers been so open and active regarding Bangladesh's politics. There certainly are geopolitical reasons behind this, but then again, it is our politicians who have exceedingly been creating this scope for foreign power to poke their noses in our affairs.

t a webinar of the Forum for Bangladesh Studies, former election commissioner Brigadier (retd) M Sakhawat Hossain said, "I see no way out of this prevailing crisis."

We have no idea if anyone else has a solution to overcome this crisis. But what we do perceive is the alarming degree of the political stalemate.   

* AKM Zakaria is deputy editor of Prothom Alo and can be reached at akmzakaria@gmail.com

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir