Due to dams in India, downstream Bangladesh faces droughts in the dry season and then is suddenly flooded in the rains. When all the dams are suddenly opened at once after excessive rains, the rivers cannot contain such a huge volume of water, leading to floods and waterlogging. Instead of releasing the previous water before the fresh deluge arrives, the sluice gates are opened at the very last moment. Even if there are satellite forewarnings of excessive rain, the upstream water is not released a few days in advance. No drainage is carried out.
Two factors are important. These are, how much water there is in India's dams or hydroelectric reservoirs, and how much new water is to arrive according to the rain forecast. A mathematical modelling of these two factors will reveal how much water is to be released and how many days in advance. In downstream Bangladesh, the state of navigation changes due to siltation in the rivers and unsustainable development. Hydrological software can be installed to determine how much water can be released per hour in such conditions, and how many sluice gates can be opened in how many days in advance to drain the water into the Bay of Bengal.
In order words, India can keep its water retention capacity the same, but release the water in advance in order to reduce damages and losses in sudden floods. In this day and age, hydrological models are used all over the world in water and flood management.
The question may be raised diplomatically as to why India does not plan for advance water drainage with the help of technology. The matter of opening all the gates of Farakka barrage, the Teesta barrage, Gajoldoba barrage, the Barak barrage and others all at one time, must be resolved.
Water sharing during the dry season is not the only demand for the people and nature of the downstream countries, there must be an end to the destruction caused by floods too. With the use of advanced technology, the possible amount of rain at every inter-country river basin can be determined and plans devised accordingly to release tolerable amounts of water and carry out dredging. All that is needed is sincere intentions.
It is imperative to draw up a clear environment-friendly and agro-friendly model regarding the release of a huge onrush of water in the monsoons from the Himalayan basin into the Bay of Bengal. Unless this is done, the uncertainty over rice crops, vegetables and the overall food market will never be overcome. Scarcity of water in the dry season and floods in the monsoons -- both are big threats to Bangladesh's food security.
The official records of the direct losses caused by floods in 2020 stand at Tk 5 thousand 972 crore 74 lakh 76. (Source: State minister for disaster management and relief Md Enamur Rahman at the inter-ministerial meeting presenting the picture of the losses caused by the floods, 25 August 2020). On the other hand, the estimated losses of the crops, livestock and infrastructure in 18 districts in 2020 stood at Tk 86 thousand 811 crore 65 lakh (Disaster management directorate, Banik Barta, 25 July 2022).
The 2024 floods destroyed livestock -- around 50,000 domestic animals -- in three districts, drowning the dreams of thousands of farmers steeped in debt. According to the Feni district livestock office, around 24 lakh 12 thousand 396 animals and fowl were killed. In no way can such inconceivable losses be accepted. Such flood management cannot be seen as part of a modern civilisation.
In the floods of August 2024, over 5 million people faced losses. When all rivers were brimming with water during the excessive rains, India opened all the sluice gates of its water reservoirs and dams including the Dumboor dam in Tripura, without giving Bangladesh any advanced information or warning. As a result, Feni, Cumilla and Noakhali faced the worst floods in living memory, with infrastructure and property of a few billion dollars being destroyed.
The Dumboor Lake has a water retention capacity of 0.23 cubic kilometres. Suddenly releasing such a massive volume of water is like exploding a water bomb. This is being done for the past few years at Farakka, at Gajoldoba.
In order to prevent India from unilaterally constructing dams, Bangladesh needed strong efforts in the diplomatic, international and other spheres.
If one fourth of one cubic kilometre of water can create such devastation, then just imagine what can happen if the dams with the retention capacity of one cubic kilometre or more, or a few dams are opened up all together at one time, without any advanced warning to Bangladesh. Meanwhile, India is steadily constructing more and more barrages upstream from Bangladesh.
India's Arunachal Pradesh is located to the east of Bhutan. Around 60 per cent of the water of Jamuna (Brahmaputra) comes from Arunachal. According to the 2014 report of the Bangladesh-India joint technical team, the Indian government is going ahead with a project to construct 154 hydroelectric projects in Arunachal Pradesh. The capacity of these is around 56 gigawatts. Several high-powered power transmission lines will have to be set up to transmit the electricity from these projects to India's mainland. And this is where India needs Bangladesh.
The Chicken Neck or Siliguri Corridor of Siliguri town is already a densely crisscrossed with roads, canals and electricity lines. It would be problematic to set up high-powered electric lines there. Then China has army base in Doklam Valley. In that consideration, it would be extremely risky for India to take such an important transmission line of the power grid through the Siliguri Corridor. The risks would drop considerably if this backbone line was taken through Bangladesh.
Of the estimated 150 cross-boundary rivers, 54 flow through the Bangladesh-India border. In total disregard to international laws, India is constructing one dam after the other across the rivers and unilaterally blocking or releasing water. The more dams that India constructs upstream from Bangladesh, the more such incidents will increase. If India is given a power corridor, then several Indian agencies will be able to arrange investment for the construction of many planned barrages upstream from Bangladesh. So assisting India to construct a power corridor would be a suicidal decision for Bangladesh.
In order to prevent India from unilaterally constructing dams, Bangladesh needed strong efforts in the diplomatic, international and other spheres. Instead, when certain officials of the power department brought up the design risks of the corridor line and the matter of a feasibility study, they were either transferred or subject to harassment, it is reported. So it is imperative to give second thought this India-centric political decision taken during the rule of the Awami League government.
It has been learnt that the Power Grid Bangladesh plc has appointed consultants to draw up a design for the construction of this corridor line known as the Bornogor-Parbatipur-Katihar 765 KV transmission line. Also, a process is on to appoint another consultant at the power cell for environmental clearance of this line. This initiative must be halted before carrying out further research and a political-economic-environmental reevaluation.
* Faiz Ahmed Taiyeb is a writer in sustainable development issues and can be reached at [email protected]