A White Paper that delves into grey areas

When the going gets tough, the tough gets going – and that exactly seems to describe the situation in Bangladesh at the moment. Things go from tough to tougher for the interim government, plagued with protests, pressure and a whole conglomeration of problems on its plate. But is it tough enough to plough through this situation? That’s the question in the air nowadays, as the post-uprising high expectations are somewhat tempered with a general sense of trepidation.

It was such a sense of concern that seemed to underlay the symposium recently held on ‘White Paper and Thereafter’, centering economic management, reforms and national budget. But there was also a feel-good sense that businesspersons, academics, politicians, economists, social scientists, students, the other participants and audience could actually voice their apprehensions, vent their frustrations, offer both bouquets and brickbats with equal aplomb, without ending up under the proverbial guillotine.

The day-long event threw up much food for thought and the erudite speakers offered almost forensic analysis of the ‘White Paper on the state of the Bangladesh economy’ prepared by the committee under leadership of Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya. More importantly, they focussed on the thereafter, the ‘what next’ conundrum.

The veteran economist Professor Rehman hit the crux of the problem when he said we haven’t even diagnosed the problems yet. Having been though a malfunctioning and non-functioning regime for fifteen years, the economy had certainly been impacted by debt default, crony capitalism and so on, but the problem was much deeper. Default had been integrated in the business culture. His advice to the interim government was to make best use of the time to come up with prospective solutions. Half-jokingly, he questioned Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir why they were in such a hurry for the election. He said you’ll face a massive amount of problems, why not let the interim government sort things out first?

The BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir exuded confidence, his characteristically smiling countenance intimating, “let the politicians do the job of the politicians.” He did point out that his party from two years ago had been touting state repairs, reforms and other changes as contained in their 31 points. He was very upbeat about political reforms and economic reforms, and seemed revved up to meet the public aspirations for change.

That was how the symposium ended, on a note of camaraderie, and kudos goes to Dr Debapriya and team for getting together such a galaxy or personalities to delve into the nitty-gritty of the country’s economy and the way ahead.

There was no sweet coating of the bitter pill that the last government left us to swallow. There was criticism, quite harsh at times, responses, discussion and debate. Debapriya said the interim government had successfully exposed the malfeasance of the past government and the magnitude of damage it had done to the economy. The task was to stabilise the macro-economy and come up with an effective reform agenda. Deftly conducting the discussions, he prodded the speakers to go beyond their prepared presentation, which left us laypersons a little wiser and the experts with much fodder to ponder over.

In his presentation, economist Dr Zahid Hussain took up the task of dissecting the myth of the “fastest growing” economy, pointing out that the growth estimates based on the correlates averaged 4.2 per cent annually during the FY09-19 period, compared with the 7 per cent average reported officially. Among the reasons for the decline in the state of the economy were global supply bottlenecks, misguided policies, accelerated capital flight, political uprising, political disruptions and floods.

Dr Hussain felt inaction of the government in addressing the economic problems would have a high cost and so the way forward would depend on policies (monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, banking, energy, business regulation, international trade, taxation, public expenditures, education and health); politics (commitment to economic reforms); and Nature (ability to cope with extreme weather events).

The former Member (Customs), National Board of Revenue, Md Farid Uddin, who is also on NBR reforms advisory committee, recommended good tax policy, a good reform policy for management and leadership, holistic and digitalised system for NBR and other regulatory bodies and, importantly, political commitment. And he echoed the sentiment high on the public mind – can’t VAT be decreased?

And perhaps more specifically echoing the mind of the business community, Syed Nasim Manzoor came down hard on the government, saying that in the present state of flux, consumer confidence was low and investor confidence was nil. Cost of doing business remained a bone of contention.

Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh pointed out that there was no systematic investment promotion strategy and that market intelligence needed to be strengthened.

It was on a more optimistic, albeit cautiously optimistic, note that the commerce advisor Sheikh Bashir Uddin said, change is the manifestation of opportunity. That certainly reflected the interim government’s mantra of change and reform. He reminded us that we were floundering in accrued criminalised institutions and the government was forging ahead in its efforts to take the TCB programme to the marginalised poor in an effective manner and to address the immediate needs of the public. He made sense and had logical explanations, but unless his symposium speech is translated into food on the poor man’s plate, misgivings will linger on.

Coming to the vital sector of energy and power, Dr M Tamim, Vice Chancellor of IUB and former Professor of BUET, pointed out how during the previous regime, the power nexus had manipulated policy for corruption. Maximum illegal transaction took place through underhand dealing and there also had been geopolitical influence in project approval. The energy expert said that with BPDB being the single buyer, executioner, upstream regulator and producer, it was easily controlled and manipulated by the ministry and political masters. As to the way forward, he said that an evaluation of the current status and a prudent transition plan was required to ensure energy security. This included rigorous onshore/offshore exploration, restructuring power and energy sectors, emphasis on renewable energy, reduction of system loss, cross border trading and operational efficiency.

The interim government can at least start change, was economist Professor Anu Muhammad’s pragmatic stance. This former professor at Jahangirnagar University, he pointed out that Hasina’s government obviously had a support base and we need to keep an eye of the ‘development miracle’ vendors, the bureaucratic ‘black hole’. The institutional destruction is worse than the financial destruction and so the government needed to play a strong role in restoring the institutions. He was critical of the World Bank, ADB and IMF prescriptions which promoted a decrease in subsidies and an increase in prices.

Earlier in the event, Tasneem Siddiqui professor of political science at Dhaka University and founding chair of Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), had also pointed out how the remittance from migrant workers totaled more than the IMF loan, yet the migrants faced the highest migration costs in Asia. She called for an increase in budget allocation for the sector.

Reiterating the interim government’s thrust, Professor Lutfey Siddiqui, Special Envoy on International Affairs to the Chief Advisor, said delivering quality service to the people is the aim and end of reforms, and reforms were the means to the end. He stressed on the need to change the fundamental culture of the way in which we work.

A lot more was said at the symposium with stalwarts and experts in the field such CPD’s Dr Mustafizur Rahman, SANEM’s Dr Selim Raihan, Adviser Sharmeen Murshid, foreign friends and many more, deliberating on the problems and the solutions. Dr Debapriya and his team had come up with a White Paper that delved into the grey areas hitherto swept under the carpet. This gave room for dissection, discussion and debate. Despite the differences and the difficulties that surfaced, one came away from the event with a sense of hope – the dark clouds had moved on and there were people out there looking out for a better Bangladesh.