2018: To hope or not to hope?

As the country embraces the new year of 2018, it brings several questions to the public mind as to whether it would usher in the hope for a national consensus to take the country forward or to a political crisis like that of 2014.

The year 2018 is being considered the election year as the 11th parliamentary elections are due at the yearend. Before that, elections to five city corporations and mayoral by-polls to Dhaka north city corporation will also be held.

The ruling Bangladesh Awami League (AL) has already decided to launch its election campaign from the very beginning of the year while its arch rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) mulls over street campaign once again to realise its electoral demand.

Political analysts, academics, as well as people concerned say the unusual context of the 11th general elections has attached additional importance to the elections, making it a crucial one for future Bangladesh.

“An uncertainty looms large whether the people of Bangladesh will be able to exercise their franchise in the 11th parliamentary elections and it’s very crucial for future Bangladesh,” former election commissioner M Sakhawat Hussain reacted when asked about his expectation in the new year of 2018.

“The year of 2018 is very important as the people didn’t get good elections over the past couple of years. People got a sort of stability, but at the cost of deviation in democratic system,” observed the political analyst.

People were largely deprived of their voting rights in the last, lopsided and controversial 5 January 2014 elections, resulting in the nine-straight-year rule of Bangladesh Awami League (AL) president Sheikh Hasina who came to power in an election held during the military-controlled government.

Two and a half years later, the AL in 2011 scrapped the system of the caretaker government - a party-neutral election-time government comprising technocrats - ensuring that it will control the administration during all the future elections.

AL, through a violent street campaign with Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, forced its arch enemy Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which was in power at that time, to introduce the caretaker government system in 1996.

Since then, the country’s general elections were being held under a non-party interim government, keeping all the power contenders out of power to ensure a level playing field for all.

And those general elections - 1996, 2001 and 2008 - are considered so far the best elections in the country’s history, along with that of 1991 as it was also held under an interim non-partisan government after the fall of General Ershad in 1990.

Scrapping of the caretaker government system took the country’s principal opposition political party, BNP, and its allies to the streets, leading to the killing about 80 people ahead of 2014 general elections, but all to no avail.

The AL staying in power presided over the general elections and its arch rival BNP along with its allies boycotted the polls and resorted to violent campaign to resist the lopsided polls. At least 20 people were killed on the very polling day.

It’s widely believed that people were deprived of their franchise in 2004 general elections in which as much as 153 MPs - a number which ensures formation of the government - elected unopposed.

The existing constitutional provision stipulates that parliamentary elections will be held within the period of ninety days preceding the dissolution of parliament. The current parliament is scheduled to expire in the third week of January 2019.

Accordingly, the 11th parliamentary elections shall be held with AL president Sheikh Hasina at the helm of power and before the dissolution of parliament.

The BNP-led opposition political camp has all along opposed the system and demanding for introduction of a non-party neutral election-time government, for which it had boycotted the 2014 general elections, but the ruling AL is intransigently sticking to its guns.

Ruling AL general secretary and road transport and bridges minister Obaidul Quader has emphatically been saying that the next elections will be held as per the constitutional provision and will be held in time even if opposition BNP does not come on board.

But the BNP is insisting that the polls must be held under a non-party neutral government and threatening with sturdy street campaign again “with the people”.

There is, however, a rumour in the political arena that BNP chairperson and former prime minister Khaleda Zia might be convicted early this year ostensibly to keep her away from the election, as cases filed against her are now at the final stage.

Political analysts also doubt that the ruling party using the government agencies might try to split BNP once Khaleda is convicted and thus lands in jail, the way the military controlled caretaker government did in 2007-08, before the next polls.

These circumstances make the next general elections crucial and people are curiously waiting to see if the next general elections would be a credible one with the participation of all political parties or the country will plunge into a chaos once again, posing a serious threat to people’s safety and security.

Citizens for Good Governance better known as Shujan secretary Badiul Alam Majumdar is of the view that the general elections which bring a change to power are not possible to be held in a free and fair manner under the existing legal framework.

“This legal framework creates an unjust scope [for the ruling party during the polls]. This is discriminatory,” said the secretary of Shujan - a civic platform which campaigns for good governance and observes elections.

“I would like to see a political consensus ahead of the next general elections, paving the way for a credible and acceptable election. Otherwise we’ll encounter a serious disastrous situation. Another controversial election will push the country to the brink of destruction,” he observed.