Anyone saying ‘December is at the door’ has no connection with Bangladesh: Adviser Titumir
Those who are talking about the Awami League’s return next December have no connection with Bangladesh, said Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, the Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance and Planning.
He said there was currently no one capable of reviving the Awami League, unlike the situation after 1975, when efforts were made to revive the party.
Professor Titumir described the “ousting of the Awami League” by the people of Bangladesh in 2024 as a victory for the country.
He made the remarks as the chief guest at a discussion titled “The Famine of 1974: Post-Independence Economic Crisis”, held at the Monsoon Theatre Hall of the July Mass Uprising Memorial Museum on Sunday afternoon.
The discussion was the fifth instalment of the museum’s Democratic Journey Seminar Series.
“If anyone says that ‘December is knocking at the door’, it should be understood that they have no connection with the soil, grass or water of Bangladesh,” Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said.
Titumir, a professor in the Department of Development Studies at Dhaka University, said the 1974 famine could not be explained solely by food shortages or failures in the market system. Rather, it was also rooted in the state’s estrangement from the people, a crisis of political legitimacy and the role of violence.
The prime minister’s adviser pointed to continuities between the systems of governance from 1972 to 1975 and the Awami League government’s rule from 2009 to 2024.
He said both periods were characterised by governments becoming detached from people’s aspirations and attempting to retain power through patronage and violence.
Titumir said similar tendencies were evident during both 1971–75 and 2009–24, including the suppression of opposition, abuse of state power and the use of violence to remain in office.
Rashe Al Mahmud Titumir said three theories are generally put forward to explain the 1974 famine. These concern a decline in overall food availability, people’s lack of purchasing power or access to food, and the absence of a social contract to prevent famine. The influence of international food aid and Cold War geopolitics is also cited.
However, he argued that these explanations fail to adequately address the crisis in the relationship between the state and its people.
According to the incumbent PM’s adviser, people’s aspirations were not reflected in the way the country was governed after independence. A disconnect developed between the people and those in power. In these circumstances, a system of patronage emerged as a means of retaining power, extending from rural areas to the centre. The influence of this patronage system was also evident in “rationing” and food distribution.
Titumir said similar tendencies were evident during both 1971–75 and 2009–24, including the suppression of opposition, abuse of state power and the use of violence to remain in office.
He also pointed to similarities in food prices during the two periods. While international rice prices fell, prices in the Bangladeshi market rose, he said. The international price of rice stood at US$147 per tonne in 1972 before rising to $542 in 1974. He noted that domestic prices in Bangladesh were higher than those in the international market during the same period.
The prime minister’s adviser further said that when the state becomes alienated from the people and resorts to violence to retain power, conditions conducive to famine and plunder emerge. Therefore, any discussion of the 1974 famine must consider not only economic statistics but also state violence and loss of life during that period.
Describing the 2024 mass uprising as a victory for the people, Titumir said Bangladeshis had repeatedly asserted their sovereignty. He said the people had played a role in establishing their rights in 1971, 1975, 1990 and 2024.
However, he stressed that making this victory sustainable required effective state institutions. Highlighting the role of the Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament), he said the state must retain the exclusive authority to exercise legitimate “violence”, but that authority must remain accountable.
An effective parliament was essential for this purpose, he said. Article 7 of the Constitution recognises the sovereignty of the people, and parliament is the institution through which this principle must be upheld. The challenges of state-building cannot be addressed through street movements without making parliament effective, he added.
The prime minister’s adviser further said that when the state becomes alienated from the people and resorts to violence to retain power, conditions conducive to famine and plunder emerge. Therefore, any discussion of the 1974 famine must consider not only economic statistics but also state violence and loss of life during that period.
The seminar was chaired by Ehsan Mahmud, director-general of the July Mass Uprising Memorial Museum. Writer and treasurer of the Panam Institute Asif Iqbal, and economist and researcher Nahian bin Khaled, also spoke at the event.