Myanmar's deteriorating situation and the Rohingya crisis

It has been five years since the Rohingya influx into Bangladesh, but there had been no headway with their repatriation due to Myanmar's lack of interest. And with a military coup in Myanmar in February last year, repatriation has become all the more uncertain. Meanwhile, the Rohingya crisis has once again come into the ambit of international attention due to the fierce fighting that has broken out between the Rakhine Arakan Army and the Myanmar army. The conflict between the two sides in Rakhine has caused consternation and concern along the Bangladesh border, giving rise to international deliberations on the issue.

Dhaka drew the attention of the international community to the shells fired from Myanmar exploding in Bandarban, Rohingyas being killed and the Myanmar air force violating Bangladesh's airspace. Bangladesh appealed that the border situation be resolved by peaceful means, but Myanmar paid no heed. The issue is being given due importance in discussion at the US Security Council.

Three months before the military coup in Myanmar, in November 2020 an unwritten ceasefire had been reached between  the Arakan Army and the Myanmar army, Tatmadaw. The unwritten ceasefire was violated on 31 August when the Arakan Army launched an attack on an outpost of Myanmar's border. At least 10 Myanmar soldiers were killed in the attack near Mongdu, along the Bangladesh border. After that, a few soldiers of Arakan Army were killed in Rakhine and the Chin state in the south. The Arakan Army, as well as various regional groups, is also locked in fierce battle with the Myanmar army in Shan down south and Sagaing up north. The army is having to face stiff resistance from these opposing forces in various places around Myanmar.

Many quarters feel that the prevailing circumstances have added a new dimension to the Rohingya crisis. At a webinar on 'The International Community's Response to the Myanmar Crisis: What Comes Next?' organised by ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute on Friday, former US diplomat Dereck Mitchell said, the prevailing crisis in Myanmar has created a new opportunity to resolve the Rohingya crisis. The international community should make use of this opportunity.

Former US ambassador to Myanmar, Dereck Mitchell, felt the present conflict in Myanmar was a threat to the entire Indo-Pacific region. China's influence on Myanmar in these circumstances was a matter of concern. However, he comments, the anti-military junta forces and insurgents all over the country kept the military constantly engaged and this may give rise to a new balance of power. He said ASEAN and all international quarters should now establish contact with the opposition including the National Unity Government (NUG).

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has said that the situation within Myanmar has deteriorated further. After reviewing the conflicts around the world, in September this international research institute placed Myanmar on the crisis list of countries where the situation was deteriorating.

ICG commented that after a two-year interval, conflict has broken out once again in Rakhine. The Myanmar authorities are continuously facing violent opposition and are oppressing the peaceful protestors.

ICG's observations published on Wednesday said that there has been an upsurge of violence on the Rakhine state. It mentions the exchange of fire between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army, and also how shells are being launched into Bangladesh as well. The Arakan Army claims to have killed 10 soldiers in the Chin state towards the end of August. Then there were reports of fights breaking out between the two sides on 1 September in Paletwa. The town Paletwa is around 18km from the Bangladesh border.

The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), a group of international experts, is working to support the people of Myanmar in establishing human rights, peace, democracy, justice and accountability. A special report of SAC-M published on 5 September said that the army now controls only 72 of Myanmar's 330 townships (equivalent to Bangladesh's upazilas). That means only 22 per cent of the country is under the Myanmar army's control.

The deterioration of the situation in Myanmar over the past few months is no sudden occurrence. The UN and ICG experts in the second half of last year had predicted that Myanmar's situation would deteriorate. But unlike the coups of 1962 or 1988, this time Myanmar's military government has failed to suppress the demonstrators. The anti-military rule youth have risen up against the olive green fatigues, from the towns to the villages. The regional separationists have joined in with the anti-government uprising, to meet their own goal. Under the leadership of the anti-military rule National Unity Government (NUG) activists, their affiliated People' Defence Force (PDF) has created small guerilla forces in many townships.

President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies (BIPSS) Maj Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, speaking to Prothom Alo, said that over the recent months separationist groups have joined hands with National Unity Government's PDF and have stepped up their activities. This has added a new dimension to the mass resistance against Myanmar's armed forces. The joint efforts of NUG, PDF and the separations have taken Myanmar to the initial stages of a civil war.

The deterioration of the situation within Myanmar has given rise to an opportunity for Bangladesh to resolve the Rohingya crisis. It is to be seen how Bangladesh uses this opportunity. While the Myanmar military took over power in February last year, the Arakan Army still wields control in Rakhine. Towards the end of July this year, they shifted away from the ceasefire and engaged in fierce battle with the Myanmar army. The Arakan Army has established its control firmly in Rakhine. Their main political organisation, United League of Arakan (ULA), announced during an online press briefing last month that anyone in the world would have to come to an understanding with them when it came to any matter regarding Arakan.

At the press briefing, ULA said the Bangladesh government would have to recognise ULA and the Arakan Army if they wanted to send the Rohingyas back. Once they accorded the recognition, then discussions could be held. After that, based on the negotiations, ULA would draw up a roadmap for the repatriation of the Rohingyas.

This declaration by the Arakan Army or ULA has created both an opportunity and a risk for Bangladesh in the prevailing circumstances. In the deteriorating situation of Myanmar, an opportunity has been created to strengthen the demand for the repatriation of the Rohingyas. Then again, according recognition to the Arakan Army is a huge challenge for Bangladesh. Recognising such an armed force or holding talks with them is a kind of big obstacle to Bangladesh. Where it hasn't even recognised the military government of Myanmar, recognising the Arakan Army is almost unimaginable.

Government officials are unwilling to make any official statement about contact or discussions with the Arakan Army. However, on condition of anonymity, several concerned officials have said if the Arakan Army's control in the Rakhine state is taken into consideration, then it is difficult to take the repatriation process ahead without acknowledging them.

Given the global energy crisis and the spiralling price of commodities due to the Russia-Ukraine war, international attention was fully focused on the conflict. The Rohingya problem, which is the biggest humanitarian crisis in recent history, was eclipsed by the war. But analysts say that international attention is returning to the region due to the steady deterioration of the situation within Myanmar. The situation there is not just risky for Bangladesh, but poses as a threat to the entire region including India and the Bay of Bengal. And given China's extensive influence on Myanmar, there are indications of geopolitical tensions with the West. The China-Russia axis and the West may see a new competition in the offing in the backdrop of the Myanmar situation.

Former foreign secretary and Delhi University's Bangabandhu chair Shahidul Haque feels that new conditions of conflict have emerged due to Myanmar's internal situation.  On one hand the western world is behind this situation and one the other, China and Russia. This has created a new perspective. A new dimension had been added to the country's state of civil war. This has brought the Rohingya crisis to the fore again. Ushering democracy is not enough. The Rohingya problem must be resolved. So this has created an opportunity for Bangladesh to resolve the Rohingya crisis. It is to be seen how Bangladesh uses this opportunity.

With the recent unfolding of events in Myanmar, Bangladesh wants the UN to have a strong role in resolving the crisis, particularly in accelerating a solution to Rohingya problem. This stand was reflected in the speech delivered by the prime minister Sheikh Hasina at the UN General Assembly. A permanent member has expressed special interest to raise the Myanmar issue for discussion at the UN Security Council. There may be developments in this regard in the days ahead.

At various levels in the UN, Bangladesh has strongly said that the sanctions imposed by the West on Myanmar are not effective. Powerful countries like China and Russia are selling arms to Myanmar. Russia openly supports Myanmar. If the reins are to be pulled on Myanmar, stronger measures must be adopted.

NUG began its contact with the separationist group Arakan Army from February. But over the recent months, the contact hasn't quite taken seed. As public support for Arakan Army is growing in Rakhine, other than NUG, cooperation among other separationist groups and anti-government PDF is strengthening. The US and western powers are desperate to use this situation to oust China from Rakhine. China has massive investment in Rakhine. If Arakan Army's battle with the Myanmar military continues there, it is felt that China's projects will collapse. The West is desperate to prevent China by any means to expand its influence in the Bay of Bengal and beyond. They are seeing the prevalent situation in Myanmar as a significant opportunity to that end.

* This report appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir