The global price of rice has fallen to its lowest level since 2017, according to a World Bank report.
The report says the price decline is due to increased production and reduced import demand in importing countries.
In Bangladesh, production has also increased, according to government data. However, prices have not fallen accordingly. In fact, they remain at their highest levels.
The World Bank recently published a report titled 'Commodity Market Outlook', which states that in 2025, the average global price of rice has fallen by 31 per cent so far, with a further 1 per cent decline possible in 2026.
According to Bangladesh’s government agency, the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), the price of coarse rice was Tk 50–55 per kg on 1 January and now sells for Tk 54–60 per kg. The price of fine rice in January was Tk 70–80 per kg and now sells for Tk 70–85 per kg.
Thus, although global rice prices have dropped by 31 per cent this year, prices in Bangladesh have not decreased; they have even increased. Bangladesh continues to import rice regularly.
In the 2024–25 fiscal year, 1.437 million metric tonnes were imported. From July to 26 November, 500,000 tonnes have been imported.
The cost of rice production has increased significantly in recent years. He estimates that reduced purchasing power has led to lower consumption of protein-rich foods, while rice consumption has increased, driving up demand. Official production figures are not entirely reliable. Government monitoring of a limited number of large traders in the rice market is inadequate.Khandakar Golam Moazzem, Research Director at the private think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
Rice is the staple food of Bangladesh. Price inflation has the greatest impact on rice. Countries like India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan have managed to reduce inflation. However, in Bangladesh, inflation remains high at over 8 per cent, though it has decreased slightly compared to before.
Md Mahbubur Rahman, Director General of the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) under the Ministry of Food, told Prothom Alo that even though international prices have fallen, domestic prices have not decreased proportionally.
He added that market conditions will be monitored for a few days, and necessary measures will be taken if needed.
He also said that sufficient rice stocks are being built to ensure food security. Because rice prices in the market remain high, the food-friendly programme has been extended from five months to six months. Open-market rice sales continue, and if prices do not fall, private-sector rice imports may be allowed as necessary.
Demand and production of rice
Since 2020, rice prices in the domestic market have been high. According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), at the beginning of that year, the price of coarse rice was Tk 30–35 per kg. Prices have been rising since then. Even during the July mass uprising, the ousted Awami League government failed in its attempts to reduce prices. Currently, despite favourable conditions in the global market, prices are still not falling.
A recent report by the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC) states that the annual domestic demand for rice is around 30.7–39 million tonnes, while local production reaches 44.3 million tonnes. In other words, production exceeds demand, although this estimate is disputed.
The BTTC report also notes that over the past year, paddy prices increased by 11 per cent, fine rice by 11 per cent, medium rice by 13 per cent, and coarse rice by 7.5 per cent. Meanwhile, in the international market, rice prices have fallen by 36–37 per cent over the same period.
The cost of importing rice from the global market is influenced by the US dollar and government regulations. However, data from Bangladesh Bank shows that since January, the dollar has remained around Tk 122, so costs have not increased due to exchange rates.
The government has largely removed import duties on rice, but imports are not completely open. Importers must apply for permission, and rice can only be imported once the government grants approval.
When asked why domestic rice prices have not fallen despite higher local production and lower global prices, Nasir Uddin, a wholesale rice trader from Mirpur-1, Dhaka, told Prothom Alo that prices at the mill level have not decreased, so they continue selling at previous rates.
The cost of importing rice from abroad is found in government purchases. In a meeting of the government’s Procurement Advisory Committee on 16 November, approval was given to import 50,000 tonnes of rice from India’s Gurudev Exports Corporation. The price per tonne was set at approximately USD 357, which comes to Tk 43.53 per kg, excluding freight and other expenses.
KM Laik Ali, Senior Vice President of the Bangladesh Auto Major & Husking Mill Owners’ Association, told Prothom Alo that while international prices have fallen and domestic production is good, prices in the market should have decreased. However, due to lack of monitoring, high prices persist. Rice stocks are available at all levels, and the government can check whether mills are selling at high or low prices.
Laik Ali added that although market prices remain high, mill-level prices have decreased. Paddy prices have dropped by at least Tk 100 per maund. As a result, mills are now selling rice at lower prices. The persistence of high prices in the capital’s markets is due to insufficient monitoring.
55pc of spending goes on food
In Bangladesh, a large portion of the income of low-earning and poor households is spent on purchasing rice. Research by the private institution Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC), titled “Economic Dynamics and Mood at Household Level in Mid-2025”, shows that, on average, about 55 per cent of a family’s monthly expenditure goes toward buying food.
Poverty is rising in the country, and employment growth is slow. Meanwhile, inflation is not decreasing significantly. Analysts believe a detailed study of the rice market is now necessary. Based on that, policy measures should be taken so that both farmers and consumers benefit.
Khandakar Golam Moazzem, Research Director at the private think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), notes that the cost of rice production has increased significantly in recent years. He estimates that reduced purchasing power has led to lower consumption of protein-rich foods, while rice consumption has increased, driving up demand. He also says that official production figures are not entirely reliable. Government monitoring of a limited number of large traders in the rice market is inadequate.
Golam Moazzem emphasises that a detailed study is needed, which will help formulate realistic and effective policy decisions in the future.