Dhaka-17 by-polls: Difference in votes of Arafat and Hero Alom

Voter turnout in the by-election of Dhaka-17 constituency was significantly low. Even with these low turnouts, there was a big difference in voting rates by area. Again, this area-wise difference reflected on the votes obtained by Awami League candidate Mohammad Ali Arafat and independent candidate Ashraful Hossen alias Hero Alom.

Dhaka-17 Constituency consists of Dhaka Cantonment, Gulshan, Banani, Baridhara, Mohakhali and parts of Mirpur. There are 325,205 voters in this constituency. Only 37,420 votes were cast in the by-election of this seat held on 17 July accounting for a rate of 11.51 per cent. The candidate of the ruling party, Mohammad Ali Arafat, was elected as a member of parliament from this constituency as he received 77 per cent of the votes cast. His closest rival independent candidate Ashraful Hossen alias Hero Alom received 15 per cent votes with other candidates getting the remaining votes.

Out of the 124 polling centres in this constituency, 23 had a voter turnout rate below 5 per cent, according to the analysis of the results. Among these centres, 14 were located in the Cantonment area, 5 in Gulshan, 2 in Banani, 1 in Matikata, and another one in Baridhara.

These areas, except for Matikata, are considered elite areas of the capital. Notably, female voters were relatively higher in these centres with low turnout. In these 23 polling stations, Arafat secured 65 per cent of the votes cast, while Hero Alom received approximately 24 per cent. Hero Alom obtained more votes in this area compared to other areas.

However, in 30 polling stations of Dhaka-17 constituency, the voter turnout rate is above 15 per cent. In 11 of them, the voter turnout is more than 20 per cent. These polling centres are located in Mirpur, Mohakhali, Matikata, Karail, Balughat, Baigartek, Kalachandpur.

Most of the residents of these areas are middle class and lower income people. Awami League candidate won in all polling centres except in two. Awami League candidate got relatively more votes in these centres. On the other hand, Hero Alom got less votes here than the elite area. In these 30 polling centres, Arafat received 79 per cent of the votes cast while Hero Alom received 13 per cent votes.

After the election, an internal notice of an organisation went viral on social media. The notice called for the disclosure of a list of names of the voters who cast votes in the election in specific areas.

Independent candidate Hero Alom stated that the ruling party was unable to influence the 'elite' voter areas. However, other areas had low turnout due to voters being intimidated. Hero Alom also alleged incidents of fake voting in slum areas.

Efforts were made to contact Awami League candidate Mohammad Ali Arafat for comment on the allegations, but no response was received by this correspondent.

Less than 5 per cent turnout

The polling stations where less than 5 per cent votes were cast in this by-election, are Ideal Public School, Ground Floor (Matikata, Female Voters), Manarat Dhaka International College (Academic Building, Second Floor Female Voter Centre), Gulshan Manarat Dhaka International College (Boys Building, Second Floor , Female Voter Center-2), two centres for female voters at Gulshan Model School and College, Banani Bidyaniketan Female Voter Center-1 and 2, Niketan Housing Society Office Zahurul Islam Memorial Complex (Female Voters), four polling centres at Adamji Cantonment College (Center No. 1 , 2, 3  and 4), Bangladesh International School and College (Female Voters) at Mohakhali DOHS, BAF Shaheen College Kurmitola Female Voter Centre, Shahid Ramiz Uddin Cantonment College of Dhaka Cantonment four centres (Male Voter-2, Female Voter, Male and Female Voter, Centre 1 and 2), Baridhara Scholars International School & College (Female Voters), three polling centres (1, 2 and  3) of Adamji Cantonment Public School in Dhaka Cantonment and BAF Shaheen College Centre in Tejgaon. These polling centres comprised of 60,028. But only 1977 people cast their votes here.

Less than 1 per cent vote in two centres

In the by-election, the voting rate at two polling stations was less than 1 per cent. One of these stations was Adamjee Cantonment College (Female Voter, Center-4), which had a total of 1,998 registered voters, but only 19 people voted, resulting in a polling rate of 0.95 per cent. Among these 19 votes, Arafat received 12 votes, and Hero Alom got 4 votes.

Similarly, another polling station with less than 1 per cent voter turnout was Shaheed Bir Bikram Ramiz Uddin Cantonment School (Male and Female Voters) Centre-2. It had a total of 2,429 registered voters, but only 24 of them voted, making the polling rate 0.99 per cent. Out of these 24 votes, Arafat secured 11 votes, and Hero Alom received 8 votes.

Hero Alom wins in one centre

Awami League candidate Mohammad Ali Arafat won in 122 centres out of 124. Among the remaining two centres, he received fewer votes than Hero Alom in one and they both received the same number of votes in the other.  The only centre, which was won over by Hero Alom is Bangladesh International School and College (male voters) centre-1 in Mohakhali DOHS. There were total 225 votes cast in this centre. Out of that, Hero Alom received 110 votes whereas Arafat received 79 votes. 

Besides, Arafat and Hero Alom received equal votes at Shaheed Bir Bikram Ramiz Uddin Cantonment School (male and female voters) centre-1. There were total 60 votes cast there and these two candidates received 25 votes each.

Meanwhile, there were 30 centres where 15 per cent plus votes were cast. Most of these centres were for the male voters.

Though the overall vote casting rate was low in the centres of female voters, the centre with the highest vote casting rate was indeed a centre for female voters. Bangladesh Muktijoddha high School (female voters) centre-2, located in west Bhashantek, had the highest vote casting rate in Dhaka-17 by-election. This centre had the vote casting rate of 29.36 per cent.

Former election commissioner M Sakhawat Hossain told Prothom Alo that EC has found a new trend from the area-based vote casting rates and the difference between the numbers of votes received by the two candidates in Dhaka-17 by-election.  The election commission can investigate about these centres.

He said that there hasn’t been any competition in the election for a long time. People are thinking that there’s no point of casting votes. Who’s going to be the winner is known beforehand. That’s why people have grown reluctant about casting votes.

*This analysis, originally appeared in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat and Nourin Ahmed Monisha