Exports fall, concerns rise

Foreign exchange reserves began to recover again toward the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year due to growth in remittances and in exports, One of the two main sources of foreign exchange earnings, remittances, has maintained growth in the current 2025-26 fiscal year. However, the other source, exports, has entered a negative trend, declining for five consecutive months.

In December, exports fell by 14 per cent, the largest drop in the past one and a half years. Commodities worth USD 397 million was exported during the month, compared with USD 462 million in the same month of the previous fiscal.

While this data is from the National Board of Revenue (NBR), the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) did not release export data on Thursday. Typically, the EPB collects preliminary export figures from the NBR.

Exports are recorded after customs duties are finalised. Once all processes related to exported goods are completed, they are entered into the NBR database. The NBR database includes three types of records: domestic exports (supply of raw materials and equipment to export-oriented enterprises within the country), sample exports, and actual exports.

Exporters from various sectors consider the five-month consecutive decline in exports a matter of concern. According to them, sales have dropped because reciprocal tariffs have increased the prices of Bangladeshi products in the US market, and purchase orders are not coming in as expected. At the same time, because the US has imposed higher retaliatory tariffs on China and India, entrepreneurs from those countries are offering products to European Union (EU) buyers at lower prices. This has put Bangladeshi exporters under intense competition.

More than 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s total exports come from the readymade garment (RMG) sector. Therefore, a decline in RMG exports affects overall export performance. From August to November, RMG exports fell for four consecutive months. Since the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) did not release last month’s data, statistics for RMG exports in December are not yet available.

Fazlul Hoque, Managing Director of Plummy Fashions in Narayanganj, said that many factories are unable to export directly because they are not receiving the same level of support from banks as before. He stated yesterday that, to survive in the global market, genuine businesses must be supported within the rules; otherwise, foreign buyers’ trust could be undermined.

Remittances, the main source of foreign currency earnings, grew by 27 per cent in the 2024o25 fiscal year, reaching USD 30.33 billion. In the first six months of the current fiscal year, remittances totaled USD 16.26 billion, 18 per cent higher than the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In the last fiscal year, exports reached ISD 48.28 billion, about 8.5 per cent higher than the previous fiscal year. However, according to EPB and NBR data, in the first half of the current fiscal year, merchandise exports amounted to USD 24.00 billion, a 2 per cent decline from USD 24.52 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In July, the first month of the current fiscal year, merchandise exports totaled USD 4.77 billion, nearly 25 per cent higher than the same month of the previous fiscal year. However, in August, exports fell by 3 per cent to USD 3.92 billion, compared with USD 4.03 billion in the same month of the previous fiscal year.

In September, exports fell further to USD 3.63 billion, a decline of 4.61 per cent compared with the same month last year. In October and November, exports amounted to USD 3.82 billion and USD 3.89 billion, respectively, representing declines of 7 per cent and 5.5 per cent in those months.

Mohammad Hatem, President of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), told Prothom Alo, “To survive in the current volatile global market, competitor countries’ governments are taking multifaceted initiatives. For example, the Indian government has announced assistance worth 450 billion rupees to protect its export sector from the impact of US retaliatory tariffs. Bangladesh, on the other hand, is going in the opposite direction. Many of the facilities and incentives that existed are being withdrawn due to LDC and IMF-related concerns. As a result, competitors are advancing while we are falling behind.”