Myanmar gas through a pipeline, how feasible it is

The government is looking for new sources of gas to tackle the country's ongoing gas crisis. Following its initiative to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Malaysia, the issue of importing gas from Myanmar has now come under discussion.

Bangladesh has proposed importing gas directly through a pipeline. As an alternative, Myanmar has also expressed interest in discussing the possibility of supplying LNG to Bangladesh.

However, the proposal is still at the preliminary stage of talks. It remains unclear how much gas could be supplied, from which gas field it would come, what route the pipeline would take, and how its cost and security would be ensured.

Although Myanmar has gas reserves, the country's production is declining. It also has long-term gas export agreements with China and Thailand. In addition, there are the conflict in Rakhine, the Arakan Army's control over border areas, and diplomatic tensions between the two countries stemming from the Rohingya crisis.

Energy sector experts say that, for these reasons, gas from Myanmar cannot provide an immediate solution to Bangladesh's ongoing gas shortage. If the political and security situation changes, it could be considered a long-term source of supply. Before that, however, a detailed feasibility study is needed on gas availability, pricing, transportation routes and the project's economic costs and benefits.

Last Sunday, Myanmar Ambassador to Bangladesh Kyaw Soe Moe met Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Iqbal Hasan Mahmud at the Secretariat. During the meeting, the energy adviser expressed Bangladesh's interest in importing gas from Myanmar through a pipeline to help address the country's natural gas shortage.

According to a press release issued by the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Bangladesh has proposed reopening talks on constructing a gas pipeline from Myanmar to Chattogram.

The Myanmar ambassador responded positively to the proposal. At the same time, he also expressed interest in holding detailed discussions on the possibility of supplying gas to Bangladesh in the form of LNG alongside the pipeline option.

The practicality of the two options, however, is not the same. Importing gas through a pipeline would require a lengthy process involving identification of the source gas field, a long-term gas purchase agreement, route selection, security arrangements, financing and construction.

By contrast, importing gas as LNG would not require a new cross-border pipeline. However, LNG could be more expensive because of the costs associated with liquefaction infrastructure, transportation by ship and regasification at terminals in Bangladesh. It is also not yet clear whether Myanmar has the necessary infrastructure and capacity to export LNG.

According to data from Myanmar's Ministry of Energy, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the country has proven gas reserves of about 22 trillion cubic feet. It produces around 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day. At the current rate of production, those reserves would, on paper, last for about 40 years.

However, the country's gas production has declined compared with previous years. Myanmar has been facing a political crisis since 2021 and has come under economic sanctions.

Two international oil and gas companies have withdrawn their investments from the country's gas sector. Western oil and gas companies have also refrained from making new investments. By contrast, Myanmar was producing about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day in 2016–17.

According to the World Bank, in 2024, 50 per cent of the gas produced in Myanmar was exported to Thailand, 25 per cent to China, while the remaining 25 per cent was used domestically.

Myanmar has long-term supply agreements with both countries. Demand for gas for power generation is also increasing within Myanmar. Meanwhile, the country recently announced the discovery of an offshore gas field with reserves four times larger than its current proven reserves.

However, these are not yet proven reserves. They can only be confirmed after additional exploratory wells are drilled. Experts say any decision on a pipeline should be made only after verifying all the information and assessing its economic viability.

Geologist Badrul Imam told Prothom Alo that Bangladesh is facing a gas shortage and production from its own gas fields has been declining steadily. Since Myanmar has gas reserves, it could be a potential source. However, he said, any decision must take into account whether Myanmar has the capacity to supply the gas, what the price would be and how it would be transported.

People associated with the energy sector say discussions on a gas pipeline with Myanmar date back nearly three decades. In 1997, a private company proposed constructing a pipeline from Myanmar through Bangladesh to Tripura in India.

The proposal, however, was not intended to bring gas to Bangladesh; rather, it was aimed at exporting gas to India. Bangladesh would have earned regular transit fees from the pipeline. The government at the time did not attach importance to the proposal.

Formal talks on the issue among the three countries—Bangladesh, Myanmar and India—began in 2004. In 2005, a technical committee was also formed with the agreement of all three countries. At the time, Bangladesh sought transit access through India to Nepal and Bhutan. As India did not agree to that condition, the pipeline initiative was effectively abandoned. Discussions on a gas pipeline from Myanmar have now resumed. This time, Bangladesh wants to import the gas for its own use.

Bangladesh has been facing a gas shortage since 2007. Gas production has been declining steadily since 2017. Over the past nine years, production has fallen by 1.05 billion cubic feet per day. Current production stands at 1.65 billion cubic feet per day. Although this is higher than Myanmar's production, Bangladesh's gas demand is much greater. To meet the additional demand, Bangladesh has been importing LNG since 2018. Even so, the shortfall has not been eliminated. The gas crisis has worsened since 21 July, when a fire forced the closure of one of the country's LNG supply terminals. Since then, the government has been searching for new sources of gas.

Experts say the current reality is different. The situation in Myanmar remains unstable. Constructing and operating an overland pipeline through territory outside the control of the Myanmar government would be nearly impossible without some form of security and political understanding with the Arakan Army. In addition, Bangladesh and Myanmar remain at diplomatic odds over the Rohingya crisis. Myanmar has yet to agree to repatriate the Rohingya refugees. A genocide case against Myanmar is also pending before an international court.

South Asian geopolitics researcher Altaf Parvez told Prothom Alo that Bangladesh effectively no longer has a border with Myanmar, as almost the entire frontier is under the control of the Arakan Army. He said it would be difficult to build a pipeline without peace being established in Myanmar, as it could come under attack at any time. He added that the situation would be different if the pipeline were laid beneath the seabed. He also said that, under the current circumstances, a cooperation agreement between the two countries would be beneficial for Myanmar, but it could weaken Bangladesh's position on the Rohingya issue.