The World Bank has forecast that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be 4.6 per cent in the current fiscal year.
According to the institution, growth may increase to 6.1 per cent in the next fiscal year, 2026–27.
This forecast on Bangladesh’s GDP growth has been presented in the January edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects released today, Wednesday.
Explaining the reasons behind the upward revision of the growth forecast, the World Bank said that household consumption is expected to rise and inflationary pressures are likely to ease.
In addition, if the national election is held in early 2026, political uncertainty may decline.
Besides, a new government is expected to implement structural reforms, which would strengthen the industrial sector. Based on these expectations, the World Bank has raised its growth forecast.
The World Bank believes that these factors will lead to an increase in both investment and public spending.
However, it noted that inflation in Bangladesh is currently higher than the target. To control inflation, monetary policy has been tightened.
As a result, credit growth has declined, which is creating obstacles to the expansion of business and trade.
The World Bank also warned that reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States could pose risks for Bangladesh in international trade.
According to the World Bank report, Bhutan is expected to record the highest growth in South Asia, at 7.3 per cent. India ranks second, with growth projected at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal year.
Growth is expected to be 3.5 per cent in Sri Lanka, 2.1 per cent in Nepal, and 3.9 per cent in the Maldives.
The report provided no growth forecasts for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has released provisional estimates of GDP growth for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025–26, that is, from July to September.
According to BBS estimates, GDP growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year stood at 4.5 per cent. In the same period of fiscal year 2024–25, growth was 2.58 per cent.