BBS survey: Questions arise over poverty data

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has claimed in the household income and expenditure survey - 2022 that the overall poverty rate dropped from 24.3 per cent in 2016 to 18.7 per cent in 2022, while the extreme poverty rate fell from 12.9 per cent to 5.6 per cent.

The survey also showed significant fluctuations in the division-specific poverty rates. Rangpur has lost its position as the division with the worst poverty rate to Barishal, as the former now maintains a poverty rate of 24.8 per cent and the latter 26.9 per cent.

The BBS disclosed the survey findings at a programme in the capital’s Agargaon area on Wednesday, but the speakers immediately raised questions over the poverty data and described that as inconsistent.

They said when the country has been suffering from high inflation for at least two years, the reduction in the poverty rate appears conflicting with reality.

They also questioned -- how did the calorie intake rate rise when high inflation led the poor and lower-middle-income families to cut down on their food consumption? Why did the poverty rate rise in Barishal, a division known as the 'granary'?

The BBS completed the seventeenth round of the household income and expenditure survey from January to December 2022. It released the initial report of the household income and expenditure survey 2022 in April. However, the poverty rate is the same in both the initial and final reports.

Mohiuddin Ahmed, deputy director of BBS and director of the survey project, briefed the programme about different aspects of the survey report.

According to the survey, the Barishal Division recorded the highest poverty rate of 26.9 per cent in 2022, up from 26.5 per cent recorded in 2016. On the other hand, Khulna registered the lowest poverty rate at 14.8 per cent. Earlier, Rangpur was the division with abject poverty for a long time.

According to BBS, the poverty rate has increased in Dhaka, Barishal, and Sylhet divisions in the last six years. The rate is now 17.9 per cent in Dhaka, 15.8 per cent in Chattogram, 16.7 per cent in Rajshahi, 17.4 per cent in Sylhet, 24.8 per cent in Rangpur, and 24.2 percent in Mymensingh.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, a noted economist and former caretaker government advisor, pointed out that the poverty rate was supposed to rise significantly in Khulna due to the high risk of climate change impacts. But it witnessed a decline in poverty, when Barishal, with its reputation as a granary, turned out to be the division with the highest poverty rate. Even Dhaka witnessed a surge in poverty rate, despite being the economic hub.

In the poverty alleviation process, he suggested that it is more necessary to ensure safety to the people just above the poverty line, as any unexpected shocks can push them back into poverty. The poverty alleviation will sustain if the method is followed.

He believes that there would be a more accurate picture of the poverty situation had the household income adjusted with inflation.

There has been a steady uptick in inflation since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war, but the poverty rate has declined to a significant extent.

Bikash Kishore Ghosh, a former additional secretary, said the average calorie intake per person increased by 200 calories over six years, but the media reported that the lower-middle-income group is reducing their food consumption.

The Rangpur division had the highest 47 per cent poverty rate in 2016, and it has almost halved now. The scenario in Barishal is in stark contrast as it has registered the highest poverty rate now. 

In this regard, Dipankar Roy, joint secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division (SID), said poverty might have shifted. It might have migrated along the river basin towards Barishal.