‘We have to prepare for cyclones every year'

Bangladesh is one of the most cyclone-prone areas of the world due to its geographical location. Depression forms seven to eight times every year in the bay. Some of these depressions intensify into cyclones and mostly hit India's  Odisha and Andhra or Bangladesh coastline.

The number of cyclones can increase in any region in any given decade. In the last 10 years, cyclones hit Bangladesh almost every year. In the 1980s and 90s, Bangladesh would be hit by cyclones once every three to four years.

Bangladesh was battered by cyclones Sidr and Aila in 2007 and 2009 respectively. Later we saw one or more cyclones hit Bangladesh every year from 2015 to 2022.

Seeing this trend, one might question if there was any change in the weather and climate of the Bay of Bengal leading to an increase in cyclones. But we would see the same trend in the 1960s. In that decade, more than one cyclone hit Bangladesh every year. Even two cyclones hit Bangladesh in April 1961 alone.

Many meteorological factors such as weather patterns, cyclone-forming capacity and wind currents in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal contribute to the formation of cyclonic storms. These factors might intensify in any given decade resulting in an increase in the number of cyclones. That also means that one or more cyclonic storms might hit Bangladesh almost every year. So, we have to remain prepared for disaster. The forecasting system should be made easier and more discernable to the public.

The area hit by cyclone Sitrang, i.e. Barishal, Noakhali and Chattogram coastline has seen very few cyclones in the last three decades. Cyclones made landfall in this area in 1985 and 1991 for the last time. All the following cyclones hit the southwest coast of the country. The region has more natural defences to face major disasters like cyclones. Also, Sundarbans is located on this coast. Wind speed and tidal surge weaken when a cyclone hits Sundarbans. The cyclones that hit the region since Sidr and Aila have caused relatively less damage.

There is no big forest along the Barishal, Noakhali and Swandip coastline and Meghna estuary. The rivers in the region are also bigger. As a result, tidal surge inundates people’s habitat quickly which leads to more damage. We’ve seen a cyclone ravaged Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar in 1991.

This region should be better prepared for cyclones. Embankments damaged by Sidr and Aila are yet to be repaired completely in this region. Many regions and islands do not even have embankments, so the damage would multiply if cyclones hit these areas. The government should prepare all the coastal regions for more cyclones in every year.

* Samarendra Karmakar is former director of Bangladesh Meteorological Department.