Rising temperatures cost Bangladesh Tk 210 billion, but how and why?

Parvin Akter, 47, works as a day labourer at Karwan Bazar in the capital. She worked at a wholesale potato shop in the market. Her task is to separate good quality potatoes from others. She earns Tk 600 daily. Her husband is sick. However, he pulls a rickshaw from time to time. But his income is not regular. The couple has a son and a daughter who live with them. Their daughter also has two children. The entire family is dependent on Parvin’s income.

Since last April, Parvin herself has fallen ill at least twice, while her daughter and her son have each been sick three times. “I get paid when I go to work, but not when I don’t,” she recalls. This year, she could not go to work for 11 days due to illness. In Karwan Bazar, the work environment makes you sweat in the heat. Over the past few years, the heat has felt unbearable to her.

Parvin said, “The sweat sticks to your body and makes you sick. The heat is getting unbearable — there’s no end in sight.”

Thousands of people like Parvin are losing workdays due to heat. Bangladesh suffered financial losses of around Tk 210 billion the last year (2024), according to a World Bank report.

The report, titled "An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh," analyses the country’s temperature and humidity data from 1976 to 2023. It also includes a major survey conducted in 2024, in which over 16,000 people were questioned in two phases.

The highest temperature of the country has increased by 1.1 °C since 1980. During this period, the perceived heat has risen by 4.5 degrees Celsius.

During this period, the heat in Dhaka has risen by 1.4 °C. The capital’s heat is nearly 65 per cent higher than the national average. As a result, cases of diarrhoea, prolonged cough, breathing difficulties, and severe fatigue have increased.

In terms of heat impact, Bangladesh ranks second in the world. In 2024, nearly 250 million workdays were lost in the country due to the heat.

World Bank senior operations officer and co-author of this report Iffat Mahmud said, “Our analysis shows that extreme heat is increasing health risks for people, while directly affecting productivity as well. Like many other countries, Bangladesh faces a real risk of losing human resources and productivity.”

The World Bank survey found that due to physical illness, people are unable to carry out their usual activities for a few days on average each year. During the summer, this amounts to 1.4 days, and in winter, 1.2 days. Days lost due to mental health issues are comparatively higher — 1.9 days in winter and 2.3 days in summer. However, there was little difference between rural and urban areas.

On average, men lose more workdays than women due to physical and mental health issues. By age group, people aged 36 to 49 lose the most work days. They miss an average of 1.7 days in summer and 1.4 days in winter due to physical illness, and 2.5 days in summer and 2 days in winter due to mental health issues. Among those aged 50 and above, seasonal variations are less noticeable. On the other hand, people aged 16 to 35 lose 1.1 days of work in summer due to physical illness and an additional 2.2 days due to mental health, which is higher than in winter.

Differences in lost work hours were also observed based on income. People with the lowest earnings lost an average of 1.7 days in summer and 1.5 days in winter, while wealthier individuals lost 1.1 days and 0.8 days respectively. The rate of lost work in summer due to mental health issues was roughly the same across all income groups, though in winter, the losses were comparatively lower among wealthier individuals.

Analysis on the basis of type of work shows that unskilled labourers suffered the most due to physical illness losing 1.8 days in summer and 1.7 days in winter. Due to mental health issues, skilled workers lost the most 2.9 workdays, while office workers lost the least 2.2 workdays.

Speaking to Prothom Alo, Dhaka University Health Economics Institute professor Syed Abdul Hamid told Prothom Alo, “The World Bank’s research is very significant. It highlights a new impact of rising temperatures. Heat not only causes lost work hours due to illness, but also drives people to spend money to cope — those without electric fans buy one, and those without air conditioners buy one. While this may have a short-term positive effect on GDP, the negative impact ultimately outweighs it, because illness and fatigue lead to far greater loss of work hours. And this is not limited to labourers; it is true across all professions.”

The study found that extreme temperatures directly affect people’s work capacity. In the 30 days prior to the survey, when temperatures ranged from 35 °C to 37 °C, an additional 0.8 days of work were lost due to physical and mental illness. When temperatures exceeded 37 °C, the likelihood of lost work increased further, resulting in an extra 1.4 days lost, which is significantly higher than on days below 30 °C.

Professor Abdus Salam of the Chemistry Department at Dhaka University has been researching air pollution and rising temperatures for many years. He told Prothom Alo that the main causes of rising temperatures are unplanned and rapid urbanisation and pollution. With the population increasing, urbanisation in Bangladesh is happening at a fast pace, but there is no sign of proper planning. The same situation is seen in Dhaka and other parts of the country.

The study found differences in lost workdays by age. People aged 36 to 49 reported losing an average of 2.5 days, while those aged 50 to 64 lost 2.1 days. This is significantly higher than for people aged 16 to 25. Although there was no major difference by gender, productivity losses were much higher among people with disabilities, who lost an average of 6.3 additional workdays.

Non-communicable diseases also emerged as a major cause of lost work. People with heart disease lost an average of 4.7 days, and those with chronic lung conditions lost 3.9 days. People suffering from diabetes, high blood pressure, and kidney problems lost an average of 1.9 days, 2.5 days, and 1.9 days respectively. On the other hand, those who spent more time indoors lost 0.12 days less on average than those who spent more time outside.

Education level is also linked to productivity and lost work. People with education beyond secondary level lost an average of 3.8 days less work compared to those with no formal education. Differences are also evident by income and occupation. Compared with low-income individuals, those with middle income lost an average of 1.6 days less, and high-income individuals lost 2.9 days less. Workers in skilled occupations lost 3.1 days less work than low-skilled wage labourers.

Urban residents have been more affected as compared to the people living in rural areas. People in cities reported losing an average of 1.4 days more due to physical or mental health issues.

Green spaces are disappearing across the country, including in the capital, where the situation is particularly severe.

Over the past three decades (1990 to 2020), the surface temperature in the capital has risen by more than 9 °C on average. However, in areas with wetlands, the rate of temperature increase has been relatively lower. Over these three decades, Dhaka’s wetlands have decreased by 69 per cent. If this trend continues, 90 per cent of them could disappear by 2050, which would further increase the city’s temperature.

A study on surface temperatures, wetlands, and area-wise temperature variations in the capital over the past three decades has revealed this picture. In March, the World Development Sustainability journal published the study titled "Development at the Cost of Unsustainable Degradation of Wetlands: Unravelling the Dynamics (Historic and Future) of Wetlands in the Megacity Dhaka." The research was conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Glasgow in the UK and Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University.

Professor Abdus Salam has shown in several of his studies that rising temperatures are linked to pollution.

He said, “Several harmful gases are particularly responsible for the rise in Dhaka’s temperature. These include black carbon, carbon dioxide, and methane. Harmful gases from vehicle smoke, brick kilns, and similar sources contribute to their production, but we see no effort to curb these sources of pollution.”