A review of several old newspapers suggests that the first report on market prices in Bangladesh after independence was published by the state-owned daily Dainik Bangla.
Published on 27 December 1971, the report was headlined, “Prices of Fish, Eggs and Vegetables Fall in Dhaka.” It began:
“Since normal life resumed across Bangladesh, including the capital Dhaka, and communication systems were restored, the supply of various commodities to the city has been increasing day by day. As a result, prices of different goods have also begun to fall rapidly. These include vegetables, fish, eggs, meat and other items.”
The next report on market prices in Dainik Bangla appeared 22 days later, on 19 January 1972. This time, the news was quite the opposite. The headline read, “Commodity Prices Rising, Greed for Excessive Profits the Main Reason.” The report began:
“Prices of essential commodities in daily life have risen abnormally in recent times. The prices of some items have already soared to such heights that they are on the verge of moving beyond the purchasing power of the public. Traders cite supply constraints as the reason for rising prices. Using the seemingly compelling argument that supply is lower than demand, they have been raising prices in accordance with the principles of economics.
“There is no doubt that supplies of some commodities in the market are inadequate. This is only natural for war-ravaged Bangladesh. But a slight shortage in supply does not justify selling kerosene, which used to cost Tk 6.50, for Tk 24. There is no other legitimate explanation for this apart from the greed for excessive profits. There is also no doubt that the greed of traders hoarding goods is at work. Otherwise, why should prices soar when goods are available in the market?
“It is not only the price of kerosene, an essential everyday item, that has risen. Prices have increased for rice, lentils, mustard oil, soap, baby food, cigarettes, matches, blades and a wide range of other goods. And these are not merely marginal increases. Prices have doubled or even tripled.”
That was how it began. Over the next 55 years, prices in the country continued to rise. Sometimes the pace was slow, at other times rapid. A look at budget speeches shows that finance ministers have devoted more attention to inflation and the cost of living than to almost any other issue. They have had fewer success stories to tell and more failures to acknowledge.
Of course, expenses have not been the only thing to rise. People’s incomes have also increased. The economy has expanded, growth has taken place and per capita income has risen. But incomes have failed to keep pace with expenses. As a result, the rising cost of living has become a constant economic reality for ordinary people in this country. Everyone has felt why economists call inflation a silent killer.
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The rising cost of living is not a problem unique to Bangladesh. There are also many examples of hyperinflation, a phenomenon known in economic theory as hyperinflation. Generally, when inflation exceeds 50 per cent in a single month, it is classified as hyperinflation.
Hungary experienced the worst hyperinflation in the world. The situation became so dire that, in July 1946, prices were doubling on average every 15 hours. In Germany, monthly inflation stood at around 29,500 per cent in October 1923. In Zimbabwe, monthly inflation reached 79.6 billion per cent in November 2008. In Yugoslavia, it was around 313 million per cent in January 1994. Venezuela recorded annual inflation of around 130,000 per cent in 2018, while prices in Argentina rose by 196.6 per cent in a single month in July 1989.
The United States experienced a prolonged period of high inflation from 1965 to 1982. In 1974, then President Gerald Ford called inflation “Public Enemy Number One”.
Rising prices make everyday life difficult for people. The pressure does not merely cause public hardship; it can also put the state at risk. A 2011 study found just that. Titled Food Prices and Political Instability, the study analysed data from more than 120 countries between 1970 and 2007.
It found that rising food prices weakened democratic institutions in low-income countries and increased the risk of protests, riots and conflict. When food prices rise, life becomes harder for poor people. That pressure combines with other grievances and fuels instability.
This does not happen only in low-income and developing countries. The protests seen across Europe, including in France, have also been driven by the rising cost of living. There is no need to look that far away. The student-led mass uprising in Bangladesh in July and August 2024 was also influenced by the rising cost of living.
In 2025, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published a fact-finding report on human rights violations during the student-led movement. The report cited a sense of deprivation of economic and social rights, inequality, corruption and a lack of employment opportunities for young people as factors behind the protests. It also said: “Since 2022, low- and middle-income Bangladeshis have been disproportionately affected by food and fuel inflation.”
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Bangladesh is now experiencing its longest economic slowdown since 1990. People are living amid high inflation, low employment and slowing economic growth. There is an economic term for this situation: stagflation.
Since 2022, prices of essential commodities in the country have continued to rise. But incomes and wages have not increased at the same rate. According to data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the Consumer Price Index rose by around 54 per cent between September 2021 and September 2026.
Over the same period, the Wage Rate Index increased by around 45 per cent. In other words, although wages have risen, they have failed to keep pace with the rising cost of living.
The pressure has been greatest on families with little savings, uncertain incomes or outstanding debts. According to a 2025 estimate by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC), around 18 per cent of households are still above the poverty line but remain at risk of falling into poverty if their incomes decline or expenses rise.
The World Bank’s 2025 Bangladesh Poverty and Equity Assessment report points to a similar risk. It says that in 2022, 36 per cent of the country’s population, or around 62 million people, were just above the poverty line. They had little savings, uncertain consumption expenditure and inadequate social protection. As a result, they too risk falling into poverty if their incomes decline or expenses increase.
According to the World Bank report, as inflation outpaces wage growth, the poverty rate could rise from 18.7 per cent in 2022 to 21.2 per cent in 2025.
To understand this pressure, consider a family of four. Suppose their monthly income was Tk 20,000 in September 2021.
According to the BBS Consumer Price Index, prices of goods and services had risen by around 54 per cent by September 2026 compared with that time. The same basket of goods that could be bought for Tk 20,000 then would now cost around Tk 30,800.
Over the same period, the Wage Rate Index increased by around 45 per cent. If the family’s income had risen at that rate, it would now stand at Tk 29,000. But they would need Tk 30,800 to make the same purchases as before. That would leave them with a monthly shortfall of around Tk 1,800. In other words, although wages have increased, they have failed to keep pace with the rising cost of living.
At the request of the National Pay Commission, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) conducted a survey titled Living Standard Survey 2025. Data for the survey were collected between 14 and 18 September 2025. It found that 47.42 per cent of households had borrowed money to meet essential expenses in the 12 months preceding the survey.
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A study titled Governing for Growth? Economic Performance and Finance Minister Survival in Democracies and Autocracies was published in 2026. It was conducted by Jonas Villibaldi Schmidt of the University of Oslo in Norway and Jacob Nirup of Stockholm University in Sweden.
Analysing data on more than 2,800 finance ministers between 1966 and 2021, the researchers found that finance ministers in democracies are more likely to remain in office when the economy performs well and face a greater risk of being removed during crises. However, they found no relationship between economic conditions and changes in finance ministers in autocratic countries.
The study Inflation Surprises and Election Outcomes was conducted by three German professors—Jonathan Färberle, Kathrin Mohr and Moritz Schularick. The researchers analysed 365 elections in 18 developed countries since 1948.
According to their findings, when inflation is 10 percentage points higher than expected, support for opposition radical, populist and mainstream political parties could increase by an average of 15 per cent. This trend was more pronounced when prices rose faster than wages.
Taken together, these findings suggest that inflationary pressure and the rising cost of living have a political economy of their own. The question is: how well do our politicians understand this reality when they are in power?
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The big question facing the country at this moment is whether the crisis will ease soon. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast offers little reason for optimism. The finance minister has said people will have to wait another two years.
But will ordinary voters, who elected the government with a huge mandate, be willing to wait that long? How many people could fall below the poverty line during this period? And how much further could the middle class be squeezed?
Controlling inflation while overcoming the investment slowdown will not be easy. Nevertheless, this is what needs to be done, and it is what people expect. But how well-equipped are we with the economic plans, implementation capacity, strong institutions and good governance needed to fulfil these expectations?
* Shawkat Hossain, Head of Online, Prothom Alo