Massive deployment of troops sparks fresh fears in Manipur

Pradip Phanjoubam: That is one of the major factors but there are other factors. Each state is different in its own way. One thought was that BJP is against Christians and it was a major factor in Mizoram and Meghalaya. In Nagaland, the ruling party has been facing anti-incumbency.

Pradip Phanjoubam: They have been making all this rhetoric against the Christians (and) the Christians felt they have been targeted and they voted against the BJP. 

Pradip Phanjoubam: In Manipur, it is a little different. What we are getting from the media has been little different from the actual happenings. All the Naga churches are standing but the Kuki churches have gone. So, it is more ethnic than being religion-driven. Voting pattern in Manipur has also been a lot different. In Manipur valley the factor was anti-incumbency, government’s inability to address the crisis.

Manipur has two constituencies. One in the valley– the Inner Manipur– and the other in the hills– the Outer Manipur. In Outer Manipur there was anger and it was not an individual decision to vote (against BJP); in some of the constituencies over 90% of the votes went to one candidate. In Churachandpur (south Manipur) district – which was in the eye of the storm – apparently there was a community decision to not vote and in some of the polling booths almost 100% of votes were polled for one candidate. It is en-bloc voting as Biswa Sarma has said. Yet in Churachandpur, religion is not always the factor. Majority of the MLAs are from the BJP. They were promised a separate administration in the last election and BJP did not respond. They were upset.

We have Kuki concentration in two districts– Churachandpur and Kangpokpi. In Kangpokpi (north-central district), Kukis boycotted the election, only the Naga's voted and so you can see an equitable sharing of votes.

Pradip Phanjoubam: The government will have to make a beginning and that beginning has to be the end of hostility. The centre should have made clear after the first week of violence that law has to be in the hands of the state. Now law has disappeared or everybody has hands on the law. All are arming themselves in the name of self-defence as they are also feeling insecure. If the state could provide protection to all, things would have been different. 

Now, there are so many troops here that people are suspecting that there is possibly another agenda. The state (government) is totally incapable and has no clue. The centre has flown in so many troops and together with the state constabulary they must have stationed between 60,000 to 70,000 boots on ground, maybe more. I think there is some plan afoot and there is a bit of uncertainty in the government as well. 

Pradip Phanjoubam: The state government was virtually in a state of animated suspension. The chief minister was removed from the head of the fight command. He could call meetings but not part of the decision-making regarding law and order, Centre was doing it. Amit Shah said, the valley should be managed by the police and the hills by the central forces. That caused another kind of division as the valley started suspecting central forces of siding with the Kukis and Kukis suspected that the police were with the Meiteis. There should be no such division in the forces. There were mistakes– either deliberate or inadvertent. 

I think so. Himanta is supposed to head NEDA (North East Democratic Alliance). But all the states governed by alliance partners have voted against the BJP…there is a backlash against the BJP. If they are not careful, they could be wiped off as was the case with the Congress. It seems that the shadow of the past has been returning. 

Pradip Phanjoubam: They may try to align with the party in the centre. In the Northeast, parties feel a little insecure to be left on their own and tend to think that they are better off if allied with the ruling party, though there are also rebels here. Three decades back the centre never trusted the regional parties, argued about foreign hand destabilising states and imposed President’s rule or engineered defections. It had a psychological impact, especially in weak states.

Pradip Phanjoubam: Indeed, Myanmar's situation is influencing the politics in the North East. In Manipur, arms and the population has been entering and allegedly it is fomenting trouble here. Besides there is this drug business. They are coming because of compulsion or it could be because of economic reasons as that side too is also impoverished. 

The question is, whether Myanmar chaos will continue and the junta will be overthrown or not. The impression that I get from experts– like Richard Horsey (Crisis Group’s Myanmar adviser) or Emma Leslie (international Myanmar observer) who are working there– is that the rebellion will continue and the military will suffer setbacks in different pockets but it would not be a comprehensive defeat for the military. The opposition is not united. Kachins don't see eye to eye with Chins or Chins to Arakans etc. and there is resistance within the Bamar community (the largest ethnic community) in the Irrawaddy plains.

Even in the hills, so many of the communities are divided in the sense that some are Christians– like the Kachins or the Chins– and then there are so many states with ethnic populations which are Buddhists like the Arakan or the Shan. Even within the states there are so many communities, it is so much like the Northeast that you can't say that this is one block and that is another block. So, if the rebels win, they will win in different pockets and it can't be comprehensive in nature, unless the military decides to give up which is unlikely. Besides, China is very interested in Myanmar.

Pradip Phanjoubam: They do not have a sea route to the Indian Ocean. Since all their resources are coming from Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, it is important for them to have access to the Indian Ocean which they don’t have. Right now, they use the Malacca Strait, which is a roundabout and the Strait is controlled by the United States. So, they are desperate to have a land route to the Indian Ocean, which is why they would invest any amount to be on the right side of the power in Myanmar. Right now, they are wooing the junta. If they find that the junta is losing, then they will use the rebel groups to ensure that the junta does not go away from China. If Aung Sun Suu Kyi comes to power, she will be given a red-carpet treatment too. The reasons for these are manifold. China has a pipeline running from Sittwe to Kunming, they have a Belt-and-Road initiative which is running straight through Myanmar and now a high-speed rail connectivity.

They also have another route via Pakistan reaching Gwadar port. That route apparently is topographically difficult. There is Karakoram range and it passes through Balochistan in places where the Pakistan government is weak. So, China would prefer an easier land route through Myanmar. If China is interested in one sector these days, then West– especially US– will take a keen interest in that sector. So, Myanmar is emerging as another nodal point for the new Cold War.

Pradip Phanjoubam: Yes. If China can make friends with India, they will be happy as it will let them access these routes. Besides, both countries would not engage in the arms race which I think is good for both. But since India is off the radar for now, China will be increasingly looking at Bangladesh, Nepal or Bhutan, etc.