What are Awami League grassroots activists and supporters thinking after the ban?

The main objective of this article is to look into what Awami League's activists and supporters at the grassroots are thinking after the bank on the party.

Using the random selection method, an attempt has been made to understand the thoughts of Awami League activists and supporters by speaking with them in the districts of Rajshahi, Naogaon, Joypurhat, Bogura, Rangpur, Bagerhat, Cox's Bazar, Sylhet, Barishal, and Sherpur.

Other than activists and supporters, information was collected by means of telephone interviews with teachers, journalists and NGO workers. The respondents expressed their unwillingness to reveal their names.

During the data collection, the respondents were found to be quite skilled at analysing the political situation. They often resorted to metaphors to explain their views.  For example, a respondent from Bagerhat remarked, "Whether it's the Awami League’s house that burns or the BNP’s, the heat is the same. Even non-confrontational neighbours can't remain unaffected by this heat." Within this metaphor lies the core idea of reconciliation in today’s context.

With the expansion of the online, there is an increased political awareness among people. We are encountering an analytically-minded public with a noticeable capacity for assessment and critical thinking. A respondent from Sylhet asked, "Has corruption and money laundering abroad ceased following the fall of Sheikh Hasina? While one may consider the Awami League to be fascist, does that mean another person’s right to support the party is forbidden?" This keen sense of public awareness represents a vital foundation of trust for the development of democracy in Bangladesh.

The data, observations, and opinions gathered from the field have been organised into several specific categories.

The research reveals that Awami League activists and supporters share a uniform feeling. They are in the same echo chamber. Across various regions of the country, the psychological geography of Awami League supporters shows a similar pattern. In the 1950s, American theorist Raymond Williams introduced the concept of the “structure of feeling” to explain cultural complexities and lived experiences. One can explore the feeling among Awami League supporters in light of Williams’ concept. This shared thought structure may be regarded as a foundational element of the party’s political existence.

Despite the threats and warnings, the anger and the feeling of deprivation, they remain quite staunch. The activists and supporters may have lost their aggressive clout, their voices may have lowered and they may be bowing their heads, but there is no change in their politician stance. That remains exactly the same.

They are being gnawed by political pressure and marginalisation, but they are mentally unmoved. They have no remorse. They are not convinced by the cases and charges against the party leaders and activists. They see these are mere political harassment. They do not want to admit Awami League's errors and misdeeds.

They are adjusting to the circumstances when moving about publically. Their loyalty to the party has not been tarnished. The relations forged through political association is not restricted to politics, but has crossed over social, economic, social safety thresholds. While about Awami League activists and supporters may have separated, in another sense these ties remain strong. There is a certain invisible unity in this separation.

One of the respondents says, we may have been bent, but we have not broken. Oppression and repression will not be able to finish off Awami League. An Awami League supporter in Joypurhat asked, not many brothers have shed blood for their brothers, but so many people around the world have shed blood for their ideology.

He said, Awami League leaders may have fled, but the activists and supporters have not. Awami League is not a party of leaders, but a party of activists and supporters. Many of the leaders are opportunists and exploiters.

According to a teacher from Sapahar upazila in Naogaon, through prolonged involvement with the party, activists and supporters become entangled in an inescapable web, not easy to break free from. Their long-term political association has evolved into a distinct behavioural pattern. This emotional structure among Awami League supporters constitutes a unique political identity.

The misgovernance and fascist narrative associated with the Awami League have little impact on this emotional framework. This mindset resembles the theory of narcotizing dysfunction, where, for example, a smoker knows that smoking is harmful to health but continues to smoke nonetheless. It’s not that the activists and supporters are unaware of the party’s wrongdoings, but they choose to remain under the Awami League’s umbrella despite that. Transforming this ideological frame is not possible through a new narrative alone. Finding a way to work within or around this framework remains a significant challenge for both existing and emerging political parties.

On 10 May 2025, the interim government banned the activities of the Awami League. A party activist who is a teacher from Rajshahi stated that the ban holds no significance for him. He is not giving it any importance or taking it seriously. In his words, “Awami League cannot be uprooted. We’ve faced situations like this many times before.” He further added that a political party cannot be eliminated through a ban. The death of a political ideology only occurs when it is replaced by a more compelling and superior political vision.

At the grassroots level, Awami League activists and supporters remain silent. They are currently unwilling to take risks involving lawsuits or legal complications. Quietly, they continue to maintain communication among themselves. In some places, those who have faced lawsuits or attacks are receiving financial and legal assistance from party leaders.

It is heard at the local level, there is a certain degree of contact between Awami League and BNP. In Rajshahi, for example, BNP is seemingly somewhat lenient towards Awami League. But this does not appear to be so in other districts.

According to respondents, on the ground BNP is more embroiled in internal factional conflicts. They are preoccupied with securing positions and control over markets, transportation hubs, fisheries, and various business centers. According to respondents, the events of 5 August initially generated some public sympathy for the BNP. But due to their various disruptive and negative actions at the grassroots, this is dissipating.

Respondents observe that Jamaat-e-Islami is independently conducting its grassroots activities in a more organised and strategic manner. Their outreach and religious engagement efforts (dawat) have increased significantly. There appears to be no evidence of cooperation between Jamaat and other political parties at the local level.

Information from Bagerhat and Sylhet indicates that although there were accusations of Jamaat's involvement in the looting and vandalism of Awami League offices, homes, and businesses across the country following 5 August they quickly distanced themselves from these "wrongdoings".
Jamaat has become active in removing symbolic elements tied to ideology. Respondents note that Jamaat-e-Islami is working to eliminate symbols associated with the liberation war, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and Sheikh Hasina.

Several respondents report that due to the absence of the Awami League and the reckless behaviour of the BNP, Jamaat has gained some acceptance among rural populace. People are not necessarily concerned with what might happen if Jamaat comes to power or shares power in the future, they are more concerned with immediate security and social stability.

According to respondents, the National Citizen Party (NCP) has little visible activity in rural areas.

Many respondents expressed a lack of confidence in the army.

In 1974, German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann introduced the model known as the Spiral of Silence. In this model, she explained that when individuals fear that expressing their opinions might leave relegate them as a minority or socially isolated, they may choose to remain silent. On the other hand, if individuals believe their opinions will be taken seriously, they are more likely to express them.

Awami League activists and supporters have come to understand that their opinions are currently unwelcome in the public sphere. Recently, their views and activities have been legally banned. This prohibition has even extended to social media. Even before the ban, loyalist intellectuals who had previously benefited in various ways, had already fallen silent. In private, secure conversations, they may still open up, but generally speaking, a deep silence now prevails among Awami League leaders, activists, supporters, and intellectuals

Awami League activists and supporters believe that the party’s good days will return, that it will make a comeback. They view the judicial proceedings against Sheikh Hasina as politically motivated harassment. Among these supporters, the emotional and psychological bond with the party has grown so entrenched that it is nearly impossible to detect even a slightest crack.

They are holding out hope for political transformation. They believe that once a political government comes to power, the ban will be lifted and a favourable environment for the Awami League will be restored. Supporters are confident that if the national parliamentary election is held under the interim government with a minimum level of neutrality, the Awami League will win at least 60 to 70 seats. If the party is not declared ineligible for the election, that number could be even higher.

Supporters also believe that if the Awami League is forced to contest the election through independent candidates, it could create a new opportunity for the party. Such a scenario might pave the way for fresh and untainted leadership to emerge, helping to clear the party’s tarnished image.

* Khan Md. Robiul Alam is a communication professional and teacher

(The views expressed are the author’s own.)