7 January election: Is the election to find out an opposition?

The parliamentary elections of Bangladesh slated for 7 January in 2024 is unique in many aspects. First, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),  one of the two main political parties in the country, and its like-minded parties are not taking part in the election. Left democratic alliance that maintains equidistance both from the governing Awami League and de facto opposition BNP also is not in the elections.

Second, Awami League leaders have been contesting the election with the “boat” symbol and also as independent candidates, who are being dubbed as “dummy candidates”.

Third, everyone already knows which political party will win the next election and form the government even before the polling. British magazine The Economist ran a report a week ago that said ‘Sheikh Hasina’s party is set to be re-elected in January’. The report said, “Sheikh Hasina has served four terms as Bangladesh’s prime minister, three of them consecutively since 2009. Nobody seriously doubts that she will begin her fifth after an election due on January 7th.”

Fourth, the competing parties and candidates in this election are fighting against whom? An election takes place on the basis of party ideologies, policies and programmes, where a party gets more emphasis than any candidate. But the party has become secondary in this duel between the “boat” and independent candidates.

Electoral candidates have taken the forefront. In other words, there is no ideological difference between the candidates who will run with boat symbol and the independent candidates from the Awami League. All are followers of Bangabandhu and Sheikh Hasina. They have faith in the charter of Awami League as a political party. That suggests they would say only one thing against the other, “the party has nominated the wrong person”.

While speaking to a private television channel, an Awami League leader who has been contesting as an independent candidate claimed that he does not consider anyone as his competitor.  The “boat” candidate will come 4th in the election. This independent candidate further claimed that the people are with him. He even said that he will get votes of local leaders and activists of the BNP that has boycotted the election.

When he was asked, despite having such a huge popularity, why he did not seek the party’s nomination, he answered, “I don’t have that much money. You need to spend hundreds of thousands of taka to get a nomination.”

Only the nomination board of the Awami League could answer this allegation.

What would the leaders and activists of Awami League do in the constituencies the party relinquished for its allies? Though the party has not fielded any candidates for those seats, the AL leaders who have been contesting as independent candidates in those constituencies will approach the voters with the party’s ideologies, policies, and programmes. Those who have been contesting with Jatiya Party’s “plough” symbol surely expect to get the vote of AL leaders and activists. In that case, if the AL leaders and activists support the “plough” candidate, they will have to take position against their party’s ideologies, policies, and programmes.

It is being discussed in the political arena who would be the opposition after the 7 January election. Some said this is an election to select an opposition while some others have been saying that any of the “king’s party” that have participated in the election or the AL leaders who have been participating as independent candidates could act as the opposition. But in reality, this chance is slim.

First,  even if some of the leaders of king’s parties win in the election, they will not have sufficient number of MPs to form an opposition and the AL leaders who have been participating as independent candidates will remain as Awami League leaders. We have to choose the Chinese model of democracy if we want to form the government and the opposition from the same political party. But that won’t be done now. Jatiya Party will be chosen as the opposition in parliament like that of 2014 and 2018 to keep the coating of multiparty democracy in the country.

This mindset has worked behind JaPa’s participation in the 7 January parliament election. Since the fall of the military dictator in 90’s, except two governments formed by the BNP, Jatiya Party has got a share of power in this or that way. They were coalition members of the Awami League government in 2008. Likewise, they simultaneously were with the government and worked as the opposition in parliament, formed through the 10th general elections in 2014. They acted as the opposition in parliament formed in 2018. We presume they have been taking part in the 7 January election finalising the seat of the opposition in parliament.

In 2008, as an entity of the grand alliance, Jatiya Party got 27 seats. They got 34 and 26 seats in parliament in 2014 and 2018 respectively. This time their seat number will depend on the Awami League’s directives to the independent candidates.

AL top brass said they have withdrawn the boat candidates but the independent candidates will remain in the fray. Their nature of staying in the competition is also a matter to be observed. In the two previous parliamentary elections, Jatiya Party had benefited as there were no independent candidates in the constituencies the AL left for them. But this time around, there are independent candidates from the Awami League. This has thrown JaPa in stiff competition. Awami League will not suffer any loss in the seats where there are both the independent and boat candidates. But what would happen to the plough candidate?

Jatiya Party has already been alleging that their party candidates cannot run campaigns due to obstruction from the supporters of independent candidates.

We have already got hints that the actual competition in the 7 January election will be between the candidates who were nominated and not nominated by the Awami League.

Omar Farurq Chowdhury got the AL nomination from Rajshahi-1 constituency. Actress Sharmin Akter alias Mahiya Mahi has been contesting against him as an independent candidate in the constituency. Omar Farurq Chowdhury has compared his competitor with the local collaborators of the Pakistan army during the Liberation War in 1971. Mahiya Mahi was not even born in 1971. How could she be compared with the collaborators? Likewise, comparing Omar Farurq Chowdhury with the archetypal “Chowdhury saheb” of Bangla film, Mahiya Mahi has been saying, “Chowdhury saheb has got money but he does not have sensitivity.”

Mahiya Mahi has been trying to win the attention of the voters. We shall know after the 7 January election, which is more powerful, money or sensitivity.

BNP’s defector Shahjahan Omar Bir Uttom, who has joined Awami League and bagged the party’s nomination from Jhalakathi-1 (Rajapur and Kathalia) constituency, has expressed the essence of this election. While addressing an election campaign at the Fajil madrasah ground in Rajapur’s dak bunglow intersection on Thursday, he said, “This is not an election. There is no joy in an election that does not have any strong opponent, good players, rallies and processions of both the parties and slogans. However, this is not the end.”

Does this mean that people like Shahjahan Omar will prepare in advance for another competitive election?

* This op-ed, originally published in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Shameem Reza