Time to think of an interim arrangement

Two pictures absolutely stunned me. One was of Abu Sayeed, the student of Begum Rokeya University in Rangpur. The whole world saw him standing there, arms outstretched, chest bared to aggressors. He was faced by scores of armed police. It was as if he was taunting them, shoot me in the chest. I do not fear death.

The second picture was of a young girl carrying a schoolbag on her back. She is pushing back a police van with all her might. You can't see her face but you can almost hear her words, go ahead, drive over me, shoot me. I will not move away from this fight.

China's 1989 Tienanmen Square mass killings come to mind. We may forget all else but not the unnamed youth who stood alone in front of the convoy of tanks. It was as if he was saying,  come, kill me, I am not frightened of you.

Once the people learn to overcome fear, it is impossible to defeat them.  Bangabandhu said so himself.  In 1971 the people of Bangladesh faced death to prove they could not be suppressed. Is not the scenario of Bangladesh today giving the same message?

The answer to this cannot be given right now. But it is clear that Bangladesh has come to the brink of a horrendous disaster. If the ongoing mass agitation continues to spread and no resolution is reached, the driving force of public anger will flare up in Bangladesh again.

The quota reform movement which was limited to a student protest has now taken form of a political crisis. The ruling quarters have taken it for granted that they can overcome the crisis by the use of force and laying the blame on the political opposition. But that is not possible. The picture of Abu Sayeed with his arms outstretched and of the girl with her schoolbag says so.

The biggest fear is about Bangladesh's economy. At this moment perhaps we can't see the depth of the crisis.  But it cannot be denied that if this crisis is extended further, Bangladesh’s economy will fall into a disaster from which there will be no easy way out.

The fragile state of Bangladesh’s economy was apparent even before the outbreak of the present crisis. The World Bank had cautioned us in advance that it would not be possible to meet the 7.5 per cent GDP target as projected by the government. 

The World Bank in April this year pointed out four aspects of the overall crisis due to which it would not be possible to attain the target. There were, high inflation, deficit in foreign currency reserves,  import restrictions and risks in the financial sector.

The World Bank at the time had hinted that the GDP would drop to 5.6 per cent. And they had not taken into consideration the economic complexities that would arise from the prevailing political crisis. From official and unofficial figures, those complexities are becoming more apparent. 

Take the foreign exchange reserves for example. Taking into account the third tranche of the IMF loan, towards the end of June the reserves stood at 26.5 billion US dollars. That's the official account. IMF and other sources put it at less. According to one calculation, the usable reserves are not more than 13 billion US dollars, with which it will be difficult to meet even two months' import costs.

With the fall in reserves, the US-based credit rating agency S&P has lowered Bangladesh’s credit rating. This can lead to four types of crisis. These are, increase in the cost of availing loans, devaluation of the taka, fall in foreign investment and shrinking of the opportunities to participate in the international finance market. None of this bodes well.  

There are more problems. On the domestic front, particularly in the garment industry,  the fall in production,  the shortfall in reserves, the liquidity crisis in the banking sector etc. can lead us to further disaster. A lack of confidence will emerge in the investment sector. This non-confidence has already reared its head.

The European Union is one of our major trade partners.  The EU has displayed reluctance in going ahead with the 'Partnership and Cooperation Agreement ' with us because of the ongoing political turmoil. Our turmoil has been raised in the British parliament too. Labour Party MP Rupa Huq sternly criticised the role of the Bangladesh government in suppressing protests, saying that they were unable to trust this government. 

I guess the views of the European investors are no different. A Bangladeshi American market expert told me if this situation prevails, Bangladesh will lose its position as an attractive destination for investment. Given the uncertainties, foreign investors will lose interest in investing in Bangladesh. They will turn to Sri Lanka, Vietnam or Oman instead. The conditions for investment there are as attractive as in Bangladesh, if not more. 

Needless to say, this state of the economy has put pressure on the government. From the highest level of government, requests are being made to Bangladeshis working overseas to send higher amounts of foreign exchange directly to the country. How will they do so if the Internet is blocked?

Foreign pressure is another major problem. The United Nations, the European Union,  several foreign governments and international human rights organisations have strongly condemned the use of force in suppressing the students' movement.

The UN has said outright that it does not believe the government's explanation in this regard. They have evidence in this regard. Amnesty International have also expressed their lack of confidence, rejecting the number of deaths projected by the government.

And a most embarrassing incident has been the use of UN peacekeeping vehicles to suppress the demonstration. The foreign ministry came up with the ridiculous excuse that they forgot to erase the UN logo. It is felt that these vehicles were intentionally used to imply international approval of their actions. 

It will be difficult for the Bangladesh government to ignore this pressure from foreign governments and agencies. We are not China. It had the strength to ignore foreign condemnation of the Tienanmen Square bloodshed. We do not. Today or tomorrow,  we will have to reach out to those foreign quarters for money or arms.

Under such circumstances we need to think of an immediate solution to the problem. Those involved in the movement strongly doubt that the present government will be able to solve the problems. They have least interest in holding dialogue with the government that shot them down like birds.

Doubts about the government's sincerity increased multiple times when the movement coordinators were forced at gunpoint in the police's Detective Branch office to make a statement about withdrawing the movement. By transferring additional commissioner Harun-or-Rashid from the Detective Branch the government may have acknowledged its wrong decision, but that had not resolved the crisis. 

It is unwarranted that any unconstitutional quarter take advantage of the situation or take over power. This will only serve to exacerbate the situation. We have had such experience in the past. We have to think of other means. From past experience I say that a political solution must be reached inclusive of all concerned sides.

Consideration can be given to the formation of an interim national government, even though there has been no such national government in this country before. If such an arrangement can be made, this interim government will have but one agenda - an immediate solution to the prevailing crisis and to carry out a credible election. But first and foremost,  a consensus must be reached about such a government. 

* Hasan Ferdous is a writer and columnist 

* This column appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir