Ahead of Cambodia’s 2013 general election, two political parties—the Human Rights Party and the Sam Rainsy Party (later renamed the Candlelight Party)—merged in 2012 to form the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP). In the 2013 election, the CNRP mounted an unexpectedly strong challenge to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party led by authoritarian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Of the 123 seats in parliament, the ruling party won 68, while the CNRP secured 55.
Following this outcome, the CNRP came under intense attack from Hun Sen. The party’s leader, Kem Sokha, was arrested on fabricated charges of treason, and the CNRP was later banned by a High Court verdict. After the party’s dissolution, Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party won every single parliamentary seat in the subsequent 2018 election. In the 2023 election, five seats were ‘allocated’ to a small party. This Cambodian backdrop comes to mind in the context of Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh.
Following the fall of Sheikh Hasina, Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh has, quite understandably, assumed great significance. His recent Facebook post explaining why he did not return home during his mother Begum Khaleda Zia’s critical illness answered some questions but also raised new ones. However, the announcement of his specific return date on the day Osman Hadi was shot dispelled any lingering doubts about the election process that may have arisen from that incident.
Tarique Rahman is returning to Bangladesh at a time when, since 1975 (from 15 August to 7 November), the country’s state structure is at its most fragile. Putting an end to widespread speculation, he is coming home, though this return leaves little room for celebration from his perspective. Ahead of him lies an unimaginably large challenge—both as the de facto leader of the BNP in the run-up to the election and, even more so, if he were to win and become the country’s prime minister.
Bangladesh’s renewed move toward democratic transition after the fall of a formidable autocrat like Sheikh Hasina is a development for which the BNP, as a political party, can claim the greatest credit. In contrast to the Cambodian example discussed earlier—where Prime Minister Hun Sen succeeded in dismantling the main opposition party and the opposition failed to sustain effective resistance—Sheikh Hasina was unable to achieve what she had sought. Hun Sen not only avoided downfall but also retired in 2023 and handed power to his son, Hun Manet.
Sheikh Hasina attempted to apply the same method in Bangladesh (as virtually all autocrats do), seeking to break the country’s largest and principal political party, the BNP, in order to secure power indefinitely for herself and her family. Yet despite enduring brutal repression—including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, custodial torture, and fabricated cases—the party did not collapse. Instead, it continued to challenge Sheikh Hasina’s regime, initially fascist in character and later mafia-like.
Over the years, the BNP deserves primary credit for persistently pressuring and steadily weakening Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule. It was in this weakened state that the Hasina regime ultimately collapsed under the combined pressure of the July mass uprising. Throughout this entire period, despite being far from the country, Tarique Rahman led the party—initially jointly with his mother and later on his own.
It is true that the Awami League’s support did not vanish overnight after the fall of Sheikh Hasina and her flight to India. However, even if the party is not found guilty by the International Crimes Tribunal, it will still require a long time to reorganise its leadership and return to active political organisation.
As a result, the BNP is likely to remain almost the sole dominant force in Bangladesh’s political arena. Therefore, how the BNP governs after coming to power and how it performs as a political party on the ground are closely tied to the fate of the country and its people. In the short and medium term, Bangladesh’s democracy, good governance, and public welfare will depend on how Tarique Rahman leads the government and the country, and how successful he proves to be in doing so.
Above all, the country must hold a free, fair, and credible election. There are still conspiracies by certain individuals and groups to create uncertainty around the election, but the BNP alone has the capacity and grassroots organisational strength to thwart these efforts and steer the country toward democracy. Tarique Rahman will play a very important role in this regard as well.
Not everyone in the country needs to support the BNP; in fact, that would not be healthy for democracy. Even in free and fair elections, if it becomes clear in advance—and in many cases virtually certain—that the BNP will remain in power for consecutive terms, that would not be good news for the state or the people.
In a democratic system, when electoral victory is uncertain, the ruling party tends to act in the public interest; when victory appears almost guaranteed, that dynamic can change. However, until another liberal democratic party capable of challenging the BNP emerges, our fate remains tied to this party. If the BNP goes off course or becomes weakened, the state itself will be put at risk.
Therefore, even those who do not support the BNP and will not vote for it should wish the party well and, importantly, wish Tarique Rahman success. The party and its leader have undoubtedly made mistakes in the past, and such mistakes cannot be ruled out in the future either. For this reason, one can only hope for his success—while also continuing to apply sustained pressure on Tarique Rahman and his party.
In the absence of the Awami League, a coalition of right-wing and far-right political parties, led by Jamaat-e-Islami, is taking shape in opposition to the BNP. For those who believe that liberal democratic or centrist politics are best for the country, the BNP—despite its shortcomings—remains the only viable option at this moment.
#Zahed Ur Rahman is teacher and political analyst
*The views expressed are the author’s own.