What is India’s ‘game plan’ on Bangladesh?

Since the “Monsoon Uprising,” the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her entourage have been staying in India under its hospitality. Neither Hasina nor the Indian government has clarified under what legal status she is there — as a political refugee or under some special arrangement. What is clear, however, is that she is there, and living comfortably.

An Indian online portal, The Print, has provided a detailed account of their stay, part of which was republished in Prothom Alo. According to that report, former state minister Mohammad Arafat said they are working day and night to figure out how Sheikh Hasina can be restored to power. He is not alone. About two thousand Awami League leaders and activists are living at home in India. Some are going to the gym, some are transplanting their hair, and some are joining online meetings. But Arafat, he says, has set aside all comforts and is devoting his time to one task, that is how to remove the Yunus government and reinstate Hasina.

Their stay in India is not any “highly classified” secret. Hasina herself is issuing daily instructions over phone on what should be done and where. She occasionally assures that she will be returning home soon.

Disturbed by this overt political activity of the former head of government, Bangladesh’s foreign ministry sent a formal letter to India requesting that it be stopped. As far as can be recalled, Chief Adviser Professor Yunus raised the same request in his only face-to-face meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi three months ago in Bangkok.

Recently, India’s Ministry of External Affairs dismissed Bangladesh’s complaint in an official press statement. It said clearly: “No, we are not aware of any anti-Bangladesh political activity by Awami League members. The government of India does not tolerate such political activity. In other words, the allegation by the interim government is baseless.”

That this Indian statement is a blatant falsehood hardly needs to be said. If a reporter from The Print can simply pick up the phone and learn directly “from the horse’s mouth” what is happening, it is unbelievable that India’s entire intelligence apparatus failed to detect the same. The Print’s report details exactly which Kolkata neighborhoods these Awami leaders are staying in, which apartments, alone or with roommates. Several YouTube videos have already circulated riveting stories about their lives there.

The implication is obvious that the Indian government knows everything and has deliberately allowed Hasina and her followers to stay and operate there.

By most accounts, Hasina has been given shelter as a state guest — meaning her food, phone bills, and security are all being paid for by India. Some Indian politicians have begun questioning why, knowing that this damages bilateral relations, India continues to treat Hasina with such indulgence.

Asaduddin Owaisi, head of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, has asked why the Indian government deports ordinary people to Bangladesh just for speaking Bengali, yet treats Hasina with such honour. If Bangladeshis are to be expelled, he suggested, that should begin with Hasina herself.

It has often been said that Hasina’s fall from power was a major diplomatic setback for India. Prime Minister Modi had invested heavily in Hasina, treating her as his own ally — and reaped significant benefits. An Awami League foreign minister once candidly admitted in India, “For India’s own interests, it must keep Hasina in power.” But India failed to learn the basic lesson about putting all its eggs in one basket. With Hasina’s downfall in the Monsoon Uprising, Modi lost all. Many have remarked that if India had invested in Bangladesh and its people, rather than solely in Hasina and the Awami League, it would not be in today’s predicament.

Naturally, the question arises that why does India still keep Hasina and the Awami League in its pocket, instead of learning from this mistake? The simple answer is that to use later, if needed. Political scientists call this strategic leverage. In practical terms, it is a bargaining chip. As long as Hasina and the Awami League can be preserved as a “factor” in Bangladeshi politics, India can use them in negotiations with any future government in Dhaka — whether on trade, diplomacy, or other matters.
The two countries are neighbours; they cannot wish each other away.

Sooner or later, relations will have to be normalised. When that moment comes, India will place its “Hasina card” on the table. Such uses of strategic leverage are not new. For instance, Pakistan once sheltered Indian separatists in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, hoping to gain advantages. Today India supports Baloch rebels with money and weapons for similar reasons.

There is an even graver possibility: India may genuinely believe that sooner or later Sheikh Hasina will return to power in Bangladesh. Hasina herself has said so — YouTube is witness. Mohammad Arafat and several thousand of her followers are working toward that goal in India, with India’s blessing, according to The Print. None of this would be possible without Indian support.

Evidence that the Awami League still hopes for a return to power came only weeks ago, when the military disclosed that about 400 Awami workers were training in sabotage under an active army officer. In other words, Hasina’s return to power is not only theory — it is also practice. Anyone with a fertile imagination might easily conclude that such bold preparations in the capital city itself could not happen without a green signal from India.

I recount this not to spin a conspiracy theory, but to warn that Bangladesh faces a difficult test in the days ahead. The next election timetable has already been announced. Awami supporters argue that the interim Yunus government is illegitimate, so the demand to remove it is not undemocratic. But if the upcoming election is held smoothly and a government is formed, Hasina’s return to politics in Bangladesh will become virtually impossible. Therefore, Hasina and Arafat’s natural objective will be to block that election.

I assume the Bangladesh government is aware of this danger — otherwise it would not have protested Awami activities to India. But its responsibility cannot end with mere protest. The issue must be presented more forcefully before the world. It must be made clear that both inside and outside the country, a conspiracy is underway against Bangladesh.

* Hasan Ferdous is a columnist.

*The opinions expressed are of the writer’s own.