Crisis will intensify if election is not credible
The Election Commission (EC) on 15 November announced the schedule for the election to be held on 7 January 2024. Jatiya Party and some other fringe parties have declared their participation in the election. It is also assumed that Awami League will be able to lure some of the BNP leaders to the election. But it does not seem Awami League can give this one-sided election any façade of legitimacy through these activities. This election will not get acceptance home and abroad. Surely it can be said, this sort of thinking will act as a boomerang for the government and the head of the government. In this column the foreign background is focused especially.
Recently the relationship between Bangladesh and US got a big jolt regarding the letter of Donald Lu, Awami League rejected his urge of dialogue. In May 2023, US announced they would impose a ban on whoever obstructs the forthcoming election and recently they have once again reminded that to everybody. This visa restriction will not seem to be the only step. Bangladesh, in all likelihood, is going to face some more embargos.
Although not publicly stated, the US government confirmed that the ruling Awami League government derailed the entire electoral system by resorting to ballot-rigging in the 2018 parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. What Awami League did in that election was shameful ballot rigging, which was not necessary at all. Many people think that even if the elections were fair, Awami League its 'grand alliance' would have won a huge majority. The top leadership of Awami League and their advisers could not catch the pulse of the people.
After the announcement of the schedule of EC the suspicion is getting stronger that Awami League is heading towards another one-sided election. It does not seem the US and its Western allies will accept another one-sided or gerrymandering election in 2024. So, there is an anxiety that the country is going to plunge into trouble.
What can be sadder than the fact that the Awami League, which rose from the ranks of the people, is regarded as the party of corrupts, capital-robbers and capital-launderers by most of the people. That is why they had to rig the election in 2018. The US has been annoyed for a long time with the attitude of the current government.
From many symptoms it could be understood that the point of view of Joe Biden, who won the election as Democratic Party candidate in 2020 US presidential election and ascended to power on 20 January 2021, is not very friendly to Bangladesh government after he has taken the principle of envisaging democracy as part of the global principle.
Since the regime of the former US President Barack Obama, the government's hostile behavior with professor Yunus was not acceptable to the then US administration. The erstwhile US Vice president Joe Biden is not easily supposed to forget that. Despite this, Bangladesh was invited by the US to join the Indo-Pacific strategy. Earlier, Bangladesh was invited by the US government during president Trump's tenure to join the US-led anti-China military alliance 'Quad' that Bangladesh did not accept. The Quad was a proposed military alliance of the United States, India, Japan and Australia. But as Bangladesh declined the invitation to join the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the United States moved directly to an anti-Bangladesh position.
Earlier, Bangladesh was not invited to two consecutive democracy conferences hosted by US president Joe Biden. It made clear that the US has discontent about the 30 December 2018 election in Bangladesh. Four of the South Asian countries- India, Pakistan, Maldives and Nepal were invited in that conference, But Bangladesh was excluded despite it continuing the practice of politics of polling. After that in December 2021, US imposed travel ban on seven former and current top officials of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh that created a huge jolt in the image of Bangladesh in the global arena.
From 2013 to the brutal massacre of Holy Artisan on 1 July 2016, several terrorist attacks took place in the country. Even the police force was not spared from these attacks. Many militants were killed in the crossfire when the law enforcement forces launched an operation to suppress the activities of the militants. Whatever the explanation, these are considered extrajudicial killings. But it must be remembered that the rule of law is the saviour of the citizens. If suspected terrorists start being shot dead by the police or RAB before they can be found guilty by trial, there is no difference between the rulers of the state and those who order assassins.
With the intensity terrorists were massacring, it became urgent to suppress them. But there is no other option than to annihilate the terrorist forces by following the rules of law and order. Crossfire, encounter, heart-attack—by whatever name an extrajudicial killing is called, it is uncivilized. Militant terrorism in the country has reduced significantly after 2016, but deviations from the rule of law like crossfire have raised questions about the state's rulers. There was a need for speedy trial and appropriate punishment of suspected militant killers through tribunals.
Awami League promised in its 2018 election manifestation that extrajudicial killing will be stopped. I think, if the US sanction over Rab gives the nation some relief from the profound culture of extrajudicial killing, the country will be benefitted.
I am directly saying If the Awami League does not become caring about making the 2024 election free and fair by repairing the derailed politics, the nation may be in trouble, if the democratic countries of the world do not take a joint initiative. Even the UN may take an initiative in this issue. We cannot get away just by blaming the US then.
Our trouble will know no bounds if US takes stern steps like confiscating the foreign currency reserve of Bangladesh in Federal Reserve regarding the human rights breaching issues like extrajudicial killing and enforced disappearances and rigging elections by seizing ballot papers. Already the economy is in jeopardy due to dollar-crisis, high inflation, hundi business that erodes expatriate remittances, capital flight and quick fall of foreign reserves.
Awami League seems over-confident at the current stage. It would be a big mistake to think that the opposition parties will not be able to strengthen the agitation and struggle before and after the elections. If the Awami League thinks that they can unilaterally pass the next election by showing the middle finger to the joint stance of the United States, the European Union and the United Nations regarding free, impartial and fair elections, then it will be a big mistake. Not much will be gained by giving too much importance to the support of India, China or Russia.
* DR. Mainul Islam, economist and former professor of economics at the Chittagong University