What will happen if Middle Eastern countries reduce recruitment of migrant workers?

For several decades, Middle Eastern countries have not only been workplaces for Bangladeshi workers but also a major pillar of the country's economy. The remittances sent by millions of expatriates from these countries have acted as an invisible driving force, impacting everything from rural economies to national growth. However, the Middle East, which was once the dreamland and main source of employment and foreign currency for millions of Bangladeshis, is now rapidly changing.

A transformation is taking place in the labour market within the Middle East, which is more significant than the smoke of the US-Iran conflict, geopolitical uncertainties, or fluctuations in the oil market. The demand for unskilled and semi-skilled labour is gradually shrinking.

Artificial intelligence, automated technology, and robotics are becoming alternatives to many tasks performed by humans. Additionally, Gulf countries, through their sustained nationalisation policies, are prioritising employment for their own citizens. In the next decade, the nature of demand for foreign workers in these countries could fundamentally change.

In this context, the most pressing concern for Bangladesh is what lies ahead for the country's economy, employment, and remittance-led development if Middle Eastern labour markets are no longer as accessible to Bangladeshi workers as they have been in the past.

The question in the context of the ongoing fundamental transformation of the Middle East is no longer imaginary; rather, it is becoming a harsh reality. It's not just about how many Bangladeshis will go abroad in the coming decade, but whether our existing labour migration model will survive at all. Bangladesh cannot afford to ignore this reality. It's not just a labor market crisis—it serves as a profound warning for our development strategy, foreign income, and future economic security.

Bangladesh sends a large number of workers abroad every year. According to government data, about a million Bangladeshis have gone abroad annually in recent years for employment. A significant portion of them head to countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, from where over half of the total remittances originate. However, the vast majority of this massive workforce consists of low-skilled or semi-skilled workers.

This model was successful over the past three decades because the Gulf countries required a large number of low-skilled workers for their construction, infrastructure, and service sectors. But this economy is rapidly changing. Saudi Arabia is transitioning through its ''Vision 2030'' plan from an oil-dependent economy to one focused on technology, tourism, digital services, and advanced industries. Saudi Arabia is implementing its ''Saudisation'' policy, Qatar is pursuing ''Qatarisation, '' the UAE is pushing for ''Emiratisation, '' Kuwait for ''Kuwaitisation, '' and Oman for ''Omanisation, '' giving priority to employment for their own citizens.

This trend is seen in other Gulf countries as well. By 2030, the main objective of these nationalisation policies is to increase employment for their own citizens in both public and private sectors and reduce dependency on foreign workers by developing their skilled workforce. Also, automation, smart logistics, and artificial intelligence are reducing the demand for repetitive low-skilled tasks.

On the other hand, with large infrastructure-based projects in the Middle East reaching mature stages, the demand for a large number of construction workers is no longer the same. Therefore, in the Middle Eastern labour market, skills, technological capabilities, and specialized professional qualifications are becoming more valuable than quantity, posing a major policy challenge for countries like Bangladesh that rely on traditional labour migration.

According to a study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in 2025, digital transformation is changing the demands of the labour market in the Middle East. They noted that in a couple of years, around 14. 6 per cent of jobs (about 8 million) in the Arab region could become more technology-dependent through artificial intelligence, and around 2. 2 per cent of jobs (about 1. 2 million) might be at risk of disappearing or being replaced due to automation and technology. This implies that future labour markets will see increased demand for skilled and technology-capable workers as opposed to unskilled labour.

Moreover, a recent ILO report highlighted that a large portion of employment in the Arab region is concentrated in risky sectors. According to their estimates, approximately 40 per cent of jobs in the Arab region are concentrated in high-risk sectors like construction, production, transportation, trade, and hospitality where foreign worker presence is highest.

As per ILO's 2026 forecast, if the US-Iran war prolongs, total working hours in the Arab region could decrease by up to 3. 7 per cent. In a worse scenario, this reduction could reach 10. 2 per cent, a larger blow than during the Covid-19 pandemic (source: ILO, 2026). The organisation has warned that, in the current instability in the Middle East, migrant labourers will bear the brunt of employment adjustments. Signs are beginning to appear which suggest a reduction in new worker recruitment and a weakening of remittance flows in these countries.

Unfortunately, a large proportion of Bangladeshi migrant workers in the Middle East are still engaged in low-skilled or semi-skilled jobs. Consequently, they usually receive low wages, are easily replaceable, and are the first to be affected by changes in the labour market. Conversely, demand across the Arab world is increasing for roles such as industrial automation technicians, advanced welders, electrical and mechanical technicians, healthcare workers, renewable energy specialists, logistics operators, IT-skilled workers, and digital maintenance specialists. Is Bangladesh preparing these people? The honest answer is probably not yet.

Construction workers, general assistants, cleaners, domestic workers, or lower-tier service sector jobs have long paved the way for Bangladesh's primary migration path. These jobs are important. Without the labour of these workers, many economies could not function. But the reality of the international labour market is that not all work values will increase equally.

Jobs that are repetitive and easily replaceable will gradually face pressure. Automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital management are accelerating this change. This doesn't mean that millions of workers will lose their jobs overnight; rather, the change will come slowly—hiring fewer low-skilled workers, increasing demand for skilled workers, intensifying competition for the same job, and those unable to acquire new skills will be most at risk.

Suppose the demand for low-skilled foreign workers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Oman decreases by 20 to 30 per cent over the next 10 years. What would happen then? Many believe that it will only lead to a reduction in remittances. The crisis will actually begin even earlier. First, opportunities to go abroad will decrease. Then wages will decrease. Employers will hire more skilled workers for the same pay. Bangladesh's low-skilled workers will be the first to be excluded. Thousands of returning workers will need to reintegrate into the local labour market. The flow of foreign currency will diminish. Rural consumption expenditure will decrease. Pressure will increase on families dependent on expatriate earnings. Local businesses will suffer, and pressure on foreign currency flows will intensify. The reintegration of returning workers will become a significant challenge; in other words, it's not just a labour market crisis. It's a structural risk to Bangladesh's development model.

Countries like the Philippines, India, Vietnam, Nepal, or Pakistan also compete in the global labouur market, but their strategies are different. The Philippines has long strengthened its position in the global labor market by producing nurses, healthcare workers, maritime professionals, and skilled workers in various service sectors. It not only sends workers but trains nurses, caregivers, marine engineers, IT specialists, and technical workers according to specific country demands. India has positioned itself in the international market through expertise in technology and engineering. Vietnam has integrated into the global supply chain through production and technical skills.

The government of Nepal and development partners are now prioritising skill development, aiming to reintegrate returning migrant workers into the domestic economy with new skills. Nepal, in collaboration with the ILO, is implementing joint programmes to strengthen safe migration, skill certification, social protection, and fair recruitment systems for the Gulf countries.

Pakistan is emphasising market-driven skill development policies, prioritising sectors that will have future demand in the Gulf countries and focusing on technical training and certification accordingly. Pakistan is implementing a roadmap that includes AI-based job matching, digital certificate verification, online pre-departure training, and digital recruitment platforms to modernise the recruitment process for expatriate workers. For a long time, Pakistan has emphasised mutual recognition of skills and demand-driven training with Gulf countries, to send skilled workers instead of low-skilled labourers.

These countries can ensure higher earnings with relatively fewer workers. Bangladesh must move in the same direction. If Bangladesh's policy does not shift from quantity-based migration to skill-based migration, the risk of falling behind in this competition will increase.

In the context of the ongoing transformation in the Middle East, a fundamental change is necessary in Bangladesh's migration policy. The focus should shift from how to send more people abroad or how much remittance has increased, to how to create skilled workers that foreign employers will compete for. To achieve this change, at least five areas need emphasis:

First, skill development based on the demand of the foreign labour market is essential. Training plans need to be formulated according to which professions will have increased demand in specific countries over the next 10 years. Increasing the number of training centres is not sufficient; an integrated ''skill diplomacy'' is required.

Second, international standard technical certification and recognition of skills must be ensured so that Bangladeshi workers can enter high-paying jobs. It's not enough to just create workers with a training certificate; international recognition of that skill must be ensured.

Third, language education, digital skills, workplace safety, and the use of modern technology should be made integral parts of migration preparation. English, Arabic, and soft skills should be made mandatory parts of training.

Fourth, joint training programmes should be initiated with foreign industries and educational institutions.

Fifth, migration should not be viewed only as the responsibility of the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment; it should be integrated as a coordinated strategy involving education, industry, foreign affairs, and economic planning.

In conclusion, Bangladesh's competitors in the Middle Eastern labour market are no longer just India, Nepal, or Pakistan. The biggest competitors are technology and the self-sufficient skilled workforce of the Gulf countries. To win this competition, the policy should focus not on exporting labour, but on exporting skills. For four decades, Bangladesh has provided cheap labour to the Middle East. The coming days will see the Middle East buying skills, not cheap labour. The future labour market in the Middle East will sustain countries that not only send a large number of workers abroad but also prepare and send workers with advanced skills and technological knowledge.

#Selim Reza, Associate Professor and Coordinator, Centre for Migration Studies, North South University
*The opinions expressed are the writer’s own.

#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam