Bangladesh–India relations: What lies ahead?

It's no secret that anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh is currently quite high. On the other hand, one cannot say that there is a flood of goodwill towards Bangladesh in India. After 5 August, this hostility has become more pronounced on both sides of the border. There has been some writing about this tension in relations, but during the interim government, it was not very easy to openly discuss the matter.

Since 5 August, it's as if a type of ice has formed in the relations between the two countries, and neither government has taken any visible steps to break this ice. India assumed that bypassing the influence of Mahfuz and Nahid, it would not be possible to forge a new close relationship with the Yunus government; thus, waiting was the better option. On the other hand, the policymakers of Professor Yunus did not dare to take any big initiative by moving beyond the ‘Delhi or Dhaka’ sentiment.

Despite this frozen situation, there was a reasonably stable relationship. However, from time to time, various groups have tried in different ways to destabilise that stability. For instance, some dreamers in Bangladesh, by drawing various kinds of maps involving India's northeastern seven states, have angered Indians. On the other hand, Indian extremists have spread communal propaganda by providing exaggerated explanations for certain isolated mob incidents in Bangladesh. To calm Hindu spiritual leaders, the Indian Cricket Board excluded Mustafiz from the IPL, which increased public resentment in this country. These events have created tension but have not been able to break the status quo.

In cold countries, in winter, the surface of ponds, lakes, or rivers freezes. The lower the temperature, the harder the ice becomes. But beneath the hard ice, water continues to flow, moss grows, and fish swim. Sometimes, the overlying ice acts as an insulator to retain heat in the water below.

In the India-Bangladesh relationship as well, the ice above has created a type of stagnation. But this stagnation has given both governments the opportunity to maintain a stability internally, away from the eyes of the opposition. To understand the current state of relations between the two countries, we mainly need to look at three metrics: border, trade, and politics & diplomacy. Of course, there are many other issues beyond this, such as goodwill, visa policies, international cooperation, and media discourse, which are also important. However, these are primarily reflections of those three fields. If a problem arises in any one of these three, its impact can be seen in the others.

There is no major territorial dispute on the Bangladesh-India border. Nonetheless, some violent incidents occasionally occurred, most of which were non-military in nature. However, currently the Bangladesh-India border is relatively peaceful. For this, the leadership of the border security forces of both countries deserves credit. Past problems, especially the killing of Bangladeshis at the border, have largely been reduced.

Some Indian push-in incidents still occur, mostly related to India's internal politics. The people who are pushed into Bangladesh, many of them are taken back through discussions between the border security forces.
The Bangladesh-India border is one of the longest borders in the world. Its length is 4,096 kilometers or approximately 2,545 miles. Compared to any previous time, the current situation on such a long border is quite peaceful.

In today’s world, no country is completely self-sufficient. Essential goods with low domestic production need to be imported. Surplus goods are exported to cover import deficits. Trade with neighbouring countries reduces transport costs and time. Often, the type and quality of goods meet the demands of consumers in both countries.

For this reason, despite various political issues, Bangladesh-India trade continues to increase. Besides rice and onions, Indian yarn is extremely important for the garment industry. Now, that yarn is also coming via seaports. The President of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association has said that yarn imports from India increased by 137 per cent in the last fiscal year. Not just yarn, imports from India have increased in almost every sector. Calculations show that total imports from India increased by about 7.8 per cent in the last fiscal year.

The biggest shortfall in Bangladesh-India relations now lies in politics and diplomacy. Diplomatic tensions between the two countries worsened after the July revolution in Bangladesh and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seeked refuge in India.

However, the conflict began even before that. Critics believe Sheikh Hasina ran an authoritative regime in Bangladesh for almost 15 years, with Indian support. She ignored international pressure for democratic elections and political reforms over a long period. As a result, a large segment of Bangladesh’s populace has blamed India for that regime.

After 5 August, fierce protests were heard from the youth against ''Indian aggression''. Some even linked this with conspiracy theories, involving secret agreements with India or unilateral transit for India over Bangladesh. An advisor to the interim government mentioned canceling ten such agreements. However, the outgoing foreign affairs advisor later stated that most agreements in the circulated list did not exist. While many of these allegations were proved wrong later, the perception that arose in people's minds has not been completely removed yet.

As mentioned before, the core issue in relations between the two countries lies in politics and diplomacy. Recently, there have been some movements in that area, though changes are not yet very visible. However, one thing is clear: both sides are becoming somewhat flexible.

In recent times, there have also been significant changes in the geopolitical landscape of this region. Under President Joe Biden, the United States viewed India as a major partner in leadership for this region. Donald Trump has moved away from that notion, strengthening the policy of direct relations with small and large countries. Thus, there have been some changes in the balance of regional power.

In Bangladesh too, political change has occurred through elections. The BNP has come to power with a significant victory, and Tarique Rahman is now the Prime Minister. The influence of young student leaders that was significant during the Yunus government is no longer there. The BNP will proceed in foreign policy according to their own calculations.

Both of these changes are influencing Bangladesh-India relations in the new era. Recently, leaders of both countries have undertaken some initiatives that are encouraging each other to come forward.

Restoration of Indian visas for Bangladeshis is now only a matter of time. The Bangladesh government has also decided to resume issuing visas to Indian citizens from their missions in Delhi and Agartala after almost two months of suspension. Cross-border transportation between Kolkata and Tripura through Bangladesh has also resumed on a limited scale.

According to a report by the Indian online media The Print, within weeks of the new government taking power in Dhaka, Major General Mohammad Kaisar Rashid Chowdhury, the head of Bangladesh's Defense Intelligence Directorate, visited New Delhi. There, he held meetings with heads of various intelligence agencies and discussions were held on normalising relations.

During Ramadan in Dhaka, the Indian High Commission organised an iftar gathering for Bangladeshi politicians and dignitaries. After becoming the Leader of the Opposition, the Secretary of External Affairs of India, Vikram Misri, made a courtesy meeting with the leader of Jamaat-e-Islami, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman.

India's inclusive approach would have been hard to imagine during Sheikh Hasina’s term or even at the time of the interim government. At that time, Modi''s policy mainly depended on the relationship with the Awami League. Many Indian think-the-tanks criticized the policy of putting all eggs in one basket back then.

It's perhaps not a coincidence either that after a long time, India''s police have arrested Faisal Karim Masud, the main accused in the murder of Osman Hadi, the convener of Inqilab Mancha, and his accomplice, Alamgir.
The BNP is also inclined to normalize relations with India. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir has stated that Hasina''s pro-India stance will not be an obstacle in this matter. However, the BNP is likely to move slowly and will also consider road reactions. There are still many sceptics in Bangladesh who are suspicious of India''s intentions. As long as the ''Delhi or Dhaka'' debate remains on the streets, Tarique Rahman might proceed with caution too.

However, even if at a slow pace, if the governments of the two countries move forward sincerely, focusing on the positive aspects of the relationship, the warmth of relations will gradually increase. And then perhaps, the ice that has accumulated will start to melt.

#Saleh Uddin Ahmed is a teacher, writer & political analyst
Email: salehpublic711@gmail.com

*The opinion expressed is the author's own

#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam