Grave New World

For all intents and purposes, we are living in a world perhaps more dystopian than Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World or George Orwell’s 1984. It is a grave new world, replete with dysfunctional democracies, engineered intelligence, disparate power dynamics, and tectonic shifts in geopolitics.

And in such a tightly interconnected world, the butterfly effect is more than palpable. A scratch of a pen in the Oval Office can cause tides to rise in the Bay of Bengal; a word uttered in the Kremlin can trigger a flurry in the Far East; a gesture in Beijing can provoke decisions in Britain (all hypothetical illustrations, of course).

The United States has, for better or worse, dominated the international scene for much of modern history. Currently, its ubiquitous presence is perhaps being felt globally more than ever. More precisely, the persona of President Donald Trump looms large, both within the United States and across the world.

If we were to create a word cloud about the US and its present position, the terms appearing large and loud would surely include “Trump,” “tariff wars,” “MAGA,” “ICE,” “Venezuela,” “Ukraine,” “Gaza,” “Board of Peace,” and so on.

The capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro by the US government was sudden and unprecedented. It reflected a significant shift in the global order, a growing tendency among global powers to resort to unilateral military action, ostensibly undermining multilateralism.

The intervention in Venezuela was “justified” as an operation to curb narcotics trafficking and to usher in a new and “better” regime. Yet the fact remains that, for all its shady reputation, Venezuela had not stood out as a major global conflict zone. Another notable aspect of this intervention was the US’s open acknowledgment of its geo-economic interests and its intent to take control of Venezuela’s oil resources. Essentially, the US stood to benefit, and made no bones about it.

Interestingly, much of Europe remained almost silent on the US’s Venezuela venture, with the exception of Spain, Norway, and the Netherlands. The US continues to exert dominance over Europe, often expecting loyalty as a form of recompense for NATO support. Only recently, Trump frowned upon British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s landmark visit to Beijing, warning of the costs of doing business with China.

Meanwhile, the US has swivelled its attention towards Greenland. Denmark is none too pleased, and the people of Greenland even less so. There is a general sense that they would choose Denmark over independence any day. Incidentally, Greenland possesses some of the world’s largest deposits of rare earth minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and dysprosium.

Hard power has also been used against Iran, justified by claims that Tehran was developing nuclear weapons and by the US’s desire to support Israel. Other controversial moves undertaken on geopolitical and geostrategic grounds include tariff wars and withdrawal from a host of international treaties and organisations, such as the WHO and climate accords. Trump’s “Board of Peace” appears to function as an alter ego of the United Nations.

For the rest of the world, including Bangladesh, it is high time to work towards restoring respect for international law and multilateral cooperation. There is a need for a clear agenda to forge alliances with countries that uphold these values. Global opinion must take stock of the moment so that coercive diplomacy does not become the norm.

Amid the cacophony of cascading global changes, Bangladesh can no longer afford to remain a silent spectator. It must become a smart and alert player, adept at riding the waves of this grave new world.
Bangladesh must prepare for the complex techno-polar world shaping global perspectives. We need a precise and in-depth understanding of hybrid warfare, grey-zone conflict, and other phenomena rapidly entering the strategic landscape.

We already have much on our plate. At the national level, a long-awaited election lies ahead, generating both hope and fears of sabotage. There is a constant and toxic deluge of disinformation on social media and other platforms. Regionally, with the deposed prime minister sheltered in India, relations with the neighbour have taken a nosedive, overtures overshadowed by hostility. Even recent World Cup tensions, sparked by the rebuff of Bangladesh’s star cricketer Mustafizur Rahman, reflect the sticky wicket of Bangladesh–India relations.

Whoever forms the next government will have to navigate a complex maze of foreign relations involving the US, China, Russia, India, Europe, and beyond. Simplistic maxims such as “friendship to all, malice towards none” no longer hold water. Whether in dealings with India or others, there is a widespread feeling that negotiation remains Bangladesh’s Achilles’ heel. We have granted transit across our territory without securing our fair share of Teesta waters; handed over insurgents while underworld kingpins operate from across the border; and remained largely silent as innocent citizens are shot along the frontier. We seek respect and friendship, but these must be reciprocal.

There are those who scoff at attempts by smaller countries like Bangladesh to strike advantageous deals. Yet history and geopolitics show that, if the cards are played right, even small nations can win big. Bangladesh enjoys an enviable geopolitical location, a massive youth demographic, and a resilient, hardworking population. Our women-led readymade garment industry testifies to our economic potential. We carry the confidence of a nation that fought and won a war of independence, and we confront climate change, natural disasters, and pandemics with stoic determination.

We stand on the threshold of an election. May it open the doors to democracy, peace, prosperity, and a place of pride in the new world order.