Election scenario becomes clearer

Media outlets have been publishing reports, editorials and opinions frequently on two issues for about one and a half years. The readers will easily guess the issues. The first is potatoes, eggs and onions. The different government agencies launch drives. Sometimes people are fined and jailed. The commerce minister makes assurances and requests to the traders.
Meanwhile, the consumers who consume potatoes, eggs and onions, express their disappointment and they lament. Green chillis of Tk 250 or 300 per kg joins the list too, so that the matter does not become monotonous. Broiler chickens are also sold at Tk 250. On the TV news a clip of 10 seconds was heard of a buyer with four hilsha, "These four hilsa were bought for Tk 9,500."
When prices don't go up ever in a week, the news of eggs, potatoes and onions disappear. But the thing which did not disappear from newspapers for one and half years is the next parliamentary election. In the first issue, the players of potato, eggs and onion are disappointed, the buyers are frustrated. Sometimes the wholesalers, even the largest stockists, are the focus of discussion, but the 'syndicate' remains ever out of reach.

The minister, who is in charge, has a firm belief that he will be able to convince eggs, potato and onion to listen to him like the home minister does by detentions and arrests. If the home minister makes arrests and sends the accused to jail, they are stopped for the time being. But eggs, potatoes and onions do not understand the law set by the commerce minister.
The number of players of the second issue is limited and widely known compared to the players of the first issue. One of the big players of the next election is Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, whose address was at the DB office of Mintoo Road on Sunday evening till writing of this article. The media outlets said the police with the invitation letter are looking for Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury to take him to the same address.
These incidents are known to us. If the trial court grants remand for BNP leaders including Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, they would be brought to the DB office again for interrogation. In many cases, legal obligations are not taken into consideration. Twenty years ago, the High Court in a detailed verdict cleared many things for the law enforcing agencies regarding post-arrest interrogation and related matters.

According to that verdict, with four hours of arrest of any person including Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir in the city have to be interrogated in present of arrested person's close relative, or friend or lawyer while in case of remote areas, the same thing has to be done if several more hours are required.
The Appellate Division endorsed the verdict of the High Court. It is also in the constitution that none will be treated with inhuman, cruel and dishonour conduct. But those who are overburdened with power do not listen to this.
On this second issue, in another side two special persons are seen in the leadership role in the streets, they are Obaidul Quader and Hasan Mahmud. Like adamant Pathans, they have been delivering the same statements for about one and half years. That is the election will be held as per the constitution.

The developments on 28 and 29 October have made things clear – firstly, the election will take place as per the current constitution; secondly, the endorsement of hartal by most of the political parties made it evident that they will not participate in the election.

Jatiya Party is still silent despite the prevailing chaos. I think the section controlled by Raushan Ershad may join the election in January, while the loyalists of GM Quader may stay off the electoral field.

Through the arbitrary detention, the government is closing all the ways that may lead the BNP to the election and will continue doing so. It will be more evident if Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is placed on remand on 30 or 31 October. If he is placed on remand for five to 10 days, we will be more sure about the unfolding approach of the election.

Prior to this 28 October, rallies and grand rallies have taken place in the city many times throughout the last one and a half years, with counter processions and peace rallies in counter programme on the same date.

Why the 28 October rallies are different, how the difference developed – there will be no answers to these queries anytime soon. The government’s analysis, which was disclosed in the home minister’s press briefing on 29 October, denotes that all the blames go to the opposition. The reasons of 29 October hartal is also similar – it is for the assaults and torture of the other side.

3.

I fail to recall any continent find where people belonging to rival sides, clans, communities, faiths,have not clashed with each other, armed with knives, swords, hammers and punches, killing each other. It was only 50 years after religious wars broke out in Europe that peace talks were initiated to halt these.

I won't delve into history and so I'll finish this with a sentence. In South Asia we haven't really had a long-lasting war in that sense. You attack and I surrender after a day or two, that is hardly a war. There are, of course, a few exceptions, like our war of liberation. Not long ago, he Iraw-Iran war of the eighties was a sort of religious war because there were the Sunnis under Saddam Hussein on one side and the Iranian Shias on the other. And the US instigated both sides all through.

So the next election is going to be one-sided. Those who do not grasp the spirit of the constitution but can just read the words written in the constitution, consider that the election will be held in accordance to the constitution.

An authoritarian government falls when the government cannot handle the economy. After the constitutional election, if the economy is in shambles, the election will not be of much use to the government. But if the economy is kept somewhat in control, even if there is no religious war, war games will continue for many years to come.

* Dr Shahdeen Malik is a lawyer of the Supreme Court and teacher at the University of Asia Pacific.