Bangladesh’s routes to T20 World Cup semifinal

Statistically, Bangladesh are currently having their best ever outing in an ICC Twenty20 World Cup.

Before the ongoing edition in Australia, Bangladesh had never won a match in the second round of the competition. This year, the Shakib Al Hasan-led team has already won two matches in the Super 12 phase.

But for Bangladesh, the devil’s in the detail. Both of their victories have come in close encounters against lower ranked teams– the Netherlands and Zimbabwe. So far, their only match against a formidable side was against South Africa, where they suffered their biggest ever defeat in T20Is in terms of runs.

Still, the wins over Zimbabwe and the Netherlands have placed Bangladesh in third position in the Group 2 points-table and in with a realistic but improbable chance of making it to the semifinal.

Their remaining two games in the Super 12 phase are against India and Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India are unbeatable and have ended up on the losing side in the ongoing competition.

The Bangladesh team has an opportunity to turn a decent T20 World Cup outing into an unforgettable one by booking a seat in the semifinal. The Tigers can take three different routes to reach the milestone.

Although there isn’t any empirical data to support the claim, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that the Bangladesh cricket team has the most optimistic fan base in all of world cricket.

But even the eternal optimist fans of Bangladesh cricket are unlikely to dream of a scenario where the Tigers march into the semifinal after defeating both India and Pakistan.

If Shakib’s men, somehow, manage to defeat India on 2 November and then win against Pakistan on 6 November, then Bangladesh will end up on eight points and will be guaranteed a spot in the semifinal.

Beating both India and Pakistan in the same T20 World Cup seems a bit of a stretch for Bangladesh. But winning one match against either of their South Asian neighbours seems like a much more plausible scenario.

However, beating just one of them could prove to be insufficient for Bangladesh.

A win against either India or Pakistan would take Bangladesh’s point to six.

South Africa and India are currently occupying the first and second position in the Group 2 points-table with five and four points respectively. Both teams have two matches to go and gain up to nine and eight points respectively.

Zimbabwe are fourth in the table with three points. They will next face the Netherlands and South Africa, and could potentially end up on seven points, which, although, seems unlikely.

Pakistan are fifth in the table with just two points, but still have a slim chance of making it to the semifinal if they can win their final two games to reach six points.

So, in the current points-table, three teams can surpass Bangladesh in terms of points and one team, with a much better net run-rate, could equal them.

So, for the Tigers to reach the semifinal with six points, they need multiple outcomes to go their way.

If Bangladesh beat India but lose to Pakistan, then they would need Zimbabwe to defeat India in order to reach the semifinal.

And if Bangladesh lose to India but win against Pakistan, then they would need South Africa to lose to both Pakistan and the Netherlands in their last two games and India to beat Zimbabwe.

Bangladesh have played the semifinal of a major ICC tournament only once, in the ICC Champions Trophy in 2017, where rain played a part in their qualification.

Bangladesh was heading towards a certain defeat against Australia in London, but rain stopped the match midway, gifting Bangladesh a fortuitous point, which helped them reach the semifinal for the very first time.

The current T20 World Cup in Australia has seen multiple rain interruptions. Four matches have been washed out so far and more rain is in the forecast for the remainder of the tournament.

Bangladesh have been fortunate as rain hasn’t caused any major interruption in any of their games. In their final two Super 12 matches, the Tigers need the rain gods to stay in their favour and maybe gift them a point that could send them to the semifinal.