Major fluctuations in HSC results over 36 yrs: A year-by-year breakdown of pass rates

The results of this year’s Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) and equivalent examinations will be published tomorrow, Saturday (31 October). Looking back at the examination performance over the past 36 years ahead of the announcement, the pass rate has undergone significant fluctuations.

In some years, the pass rate plummeted below 25 per cent, while in others, it exceeded 75 per cent. In 2020, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, all candidates were declared successful through an alternative evaluation without sitting examinations, resulting in a 100 per cent pass rate.

These fluctuations in pass rates not only highlight shifts in student performance but also raise fundamental questions regarding the various parameters that influence examination outcomes.

Factors such as question design, script evaluation, candidate preparation, syllabus coverage, and assessment methodologies can all impact final results. However, pass rate statistics alone cannot definitively quantify the exact weight of each individual factor.

According to a prior announcement, the results for this year’s HSC and equivalent examinations were scheduled for release on 29 October. The date was subsequently rescheduled to 31 October.

This year’s HSC and equivalent examinations commenced on 2 July. A total of 1,270,583 regular and irregular candidates sat for the examinations, though a notable number of registered candidates were absent.

An analysis of HSC examination results from 1990 to 2025 reveals that the lowest pass rate during this period occurred in 1996, at 24.77 per cent. Conversely, during the pandemic in 2020, the pass rate reached an all-time high of 100 per cent. However, the 2020 result cannot be directly compared to outcomes derived from regular examinations, as all candidates passed under an assessment scheme conducted without exams.

In recent years, the most significant drop in pass rates occurred last year. In 2024, the average pass rate across the nine general education boards stood at 75.56 per cent. In 2025, this figure dropped sharply to 57.12 per cent—a decline of nearly 18 percentage points within a single year. Last year's performance represented the lowest pass rate recorded since 2005.

Prior to that, the pass rate in 2005 stood at 59.16 per cent. Over the subsequent years, pass rates gradually increased, though this growth was not uniform and experienced occasional dips. Eventually, pass rates oscillated within the 60 to 70 per cent range.

To comprehend the cause of last year’s steep decline, a simple year-on-year comparison is insufficient. Education experts note that script evaluation standards, subject-specific outcomes, student preparation, and question design played critical roles.

An analysis following last year's result publication indicated a higher failure rate in English and Information and Communication Technology (ICT), which dragged down the overall average.

Whether this year’s results mark a recovery or continue the downward trend observed last year will be revealed on Saturday.

The analysis over 36 years shows that in 1990, the HSC pass rate stood at 29.70 per cent. It rose over the following two years to roughly 51 per cent in 1991 and over 65 per cent in 1992, before dropping again. The pass rate was just above 46 per cent in 1993, over 40 per cent in 1994, and over 46 per cent in 1995.

A major slump occurred in 1996, when the pass rate fell to 24.77 per cent. Although pass rates fluctuated upwards over the next few years, consistency remained elusive. The pass rate stood at over 39 per cent in 1997, over 28 per cent in 2001, and approximately 27 per cent in 2002. It rose to over 38 per cent in 2003 and reached nearly 48 per cent in 2004.

In 2005, the pass rate climbed past 59 per cent, maintaining an upward trajectory over the next few years. The pass rate stood at nearly 64 per cent in 2006, over 64 per cent in 2007, and nearly 75 per cent in 2008, before dropping slightly to just over 70 per cent in 2009. In 2010 and 2011, pass rates hovered around 72 per cent, rising above 76 per cent in 2012.

Following 2012, the HSC pass rate hovered around 70 per cent for several years. It recorded over 71 per cent in 2013 and nearly 76 per cent in 2014, before declining to roughly 66 per cent in 2015.

The pass rate rebounded to over 72 per cent in 2016, then fell to nearly 67 per cent in 2017, roughly 65 per cent in 2018, and close to 72 per cent in 2019.

Data from this era shows that pass rates did not follow a single trajectory. Increases in one year were often followed by declines in the next, or returned to previous baselines. Consequently, a single year’s pass rate cannot serve as the sole benchmark for measuring the quality of the broader education system.

Alongside pass rates, factors such as learning quality, subject-specific proficiency, and evaluation methods must also be evaluated.

In 2020, HSC examinations were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and all candidates were declared passed, resulting in a 100 per cent pass rate.

The following year, in 2021, the pass rate stood at 95.57 per cent, declining to 84.31 per cent in 2022. The downward trend continued, with the pass rate dropping to roughly 76 per cent in 2023 and over 75 per cent in 2024, before falling to the 57 per cent range in 2025.

Overall, HSC pass rates between 1990 and 2025 have seen repeated cycles of growth and decline. However, with last year's drop to the 57 per cent mark, anticipation surrounding this year's results remains high. Stakeholders will have to wait until 31 October to learn the final figures.

Speaking to Prothom Alo, Professor Syed Akhteruzzaman, Chairman of the Dhaka Education Board and President of the Inter-Education Board Coordination Committee, noted that HSC pass rates have fluctuated due to a variety of factors.

According to him, policy shifts over the past two years have also influenced outcomes.

He expressed hope that if merit-based, authentic evaluation standards are maintained, pass rates will gradually improve over time.