What would happen if ‘no’ wins in referendum

Amid sharply divergent positions among political parties, the interim government has approved the roadmap for implementing reforms based on the July National Charter. The President has already given it legal effect through an order.

Although not all major parties are happy with the development, they have apparently accepted it. As a result, the uncertainty surrounding the reform process appears, for now, to have been eased.

However, the future of the reforms depends entirely on the outcome of the referendum. With the possibility that ‘no’ rather than ‘yes’ might prevail, the question has now emerged: what will happen if the ‘no’ vote wins? Will the nine months of discussion by the National Consensus Commission, the political parties’ efforts, and the interim government’s initiatives all go to waste? At present, no one has a clear answer.

If the ‘no’ vote wins, the party victorious in the next general election will not be obliged to implement the reform proposals as per the July Charter. Instead, reforms will then depend entirely on the wishes of the majority party in the next parliament.

On 13 July 2023, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) announced 31 points for the “democratic reform of the Constitution and system of governance” and for “economic emancipation”. The party may seek to advance future reform initiatives in that spirit.

But this approach of BNP does not align with that of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and various other parties. Jamaat has, however, supported almost all the reform proposals in the July Charter. Whether the party will pursue reforms in line with the Charter even if ‘no’ wins, or propose its own new formula, remains to be seen.

The July National Charter was formulated after prolonged discussions between political parties and the National Consensus Commission, drawing on 84 proposals submitted by six reform commissions. Among those, 48 proposals are related to the Constitution.

Several of these proposals were opposed by various parties, including the BNP. Despite such disagreements, most parties, including the BNP and Jamaat, signed the Charter on 17 October.

During negotiations with the parties, there was consensus that the Charter would be implemented through a referendum. However, disagreements persisted over the legal basis, timing and procedures for the Charter and the referendum.

On 28 October, the National Consensus Commission submitted two alternative recommendations for implementation of the July Charter to the government, leaving the decision on the timing of the referendum to the authorities.

Later, on 13 November, the interim government released the roadmap for implementation. The next general election and the referendum on implementing the July National Charter will take place on the same day.

Although the referendum concerns four issues, they effectively encompass the 48 constitutional reform proposals. If ‘yes’ wins, the next parliament will become bicameral, with a 100-member upper house constituted through proportional representation (PR) system based on the votes received by political parties. In other words, these reforms can only be implemented if ‘yes’ wins.

In an exclusive interview with Prothom Alo on 27 September, professor Ali Riaz, vice-chair of the Commission formed to draft the July Charter, expressed optimism that ‘yes’ would prevail in the referendum, while also noting that stakeholders must be prepared to accept a possible rejection.

Ali Riaz stated that from 1790 to 2016, more than 800 referendums were held worldwide, and only about 6 per cent of them “failed”. He added, “The concern lies elsewhere. So much effort, so much consensus has been reached. If the people reject it, we must be ready to accept that.”

The referendum will be held on 48 proposals related to the constitution. These have been grouped into four areas, to be decided through a single referendum question. The question will be something like, “Do you consent to the July National Charter (constitution reform) Implementation Order, 2025, and the following proposals related to constitutional reform as recorded in the July National Charter?”

a. The caretaker government, election commission and other constitutional institutions during the election period will be formed in accordance with the procedures laid out in the July Charter.

b. The next parliament will be bicameral. A 100-member upper house will be formed on the basis of proportional representation according to parties’ share of the national vote, and constitutional amendments will require approval by a majority of the upper house.

c. The 30 reform proposals on which political parties reached consensus, such as increasing women’s representation in parliament, electing a deputy speaker and committee chairs from the opposition party, limiting the prime minister’s tenure, expanding the president’s powers, extending fundamental rights, strengthening judicial independence and local government must be implemented by the party or parties forming the next government.

d. Other reforms outlined in the July Charter will be implemented as pledged by the political parties.

Voters will express approval or disapproval through a single ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to all four issues. This is where the core complexity lies. Some issues face objections from the BNP and its allies; Jamaat and aligned parties oppose only a few aspects. This leaves political parties with no room for a middle position: they must either vote ‘yes’ to advance reforms in line with the Charter or reject the entire package with a ‘no’. As a result, the possibility of a ‘no’ victory cannot be ruled out.

Political analysts believe that the Bangladesh Awami League, whose activities have been banned, unwilling to enable the interim government’s success, may encourage its supporters to vote ‘no’.

Meanwhile, the BNP has strong reservations about several issues of the reform proposals, including the PR-based upper house, its powers, and the procedures for forming a caretaker government and appointing constitutional office holders. It would therefore not be surprising if many BNP supporters also opt for ‘No’.

On Friday, Zainul Abedin Farroque, adviser to the BNP chairperson and former opposition chief whip, publicly urged voters at an event in his Noakhali constituency to vote ‘no’ in the referendum.

The first issue of the referendum question is about the formation of the caretaker government, the election commission (EC) and other constitutional institutions according to the July Charter.

All the political parties, the BNP, Jamaat, NCP and others, support the restoration of a caretaker government during elections. However, the BNP objects to several procedural steps included in the Charter for forming this caretaker administration.

If ‘no’ wins and the BNP forms the government, how it chooses to structure the caretaker arrangement remains to be seen. In addition, a Supreme Court ruling on the caretaker system is pending. Its directives will carry binding force. Thus, even if the Charter fails to receive the people’s mandate, the Court’s ruling will remain a factor.

The July Charter proposes including in the Constitution the method of appointing in the Public Service Commission (PSC), the Ombudsman, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) and the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC). These appointments would occur through selection committees comprising representatives of the ruling party, the opposition, and, in some cases, the judiciary.

While parties agree on the process for forming the EC, the BNP disagrees with applying the same committee-based appointment method to other constitutional bodies, preferring appointments through ordinary legislation instead. By contrast, Jamaat and the National Citizen Party (NCP) agree with the Commission’s proposal.

The BNP’s 31 points pledge the restructuring and strengthening of all state, constitutional and statutory bodies to ensure transparency. If the BNP wins, it may thus introduce laws and procedures as per its own wishes.

The BNP, Jamaat, NCP and 25 political parties have all expressed support for a bicameral parliament. The BNP’s 31 points also commit to creating an upper house if the party comes to power. However, seven parties including the BNP oppose the method of forming the upper house proposed in the July Charter.

According to the Charter, the 100-member upper house would be formed on the basis of vote share. But the BNP, the 12-party alliance and like-minded parties want seats to be distributed according to the number of seats won in the lower house, not by vote share.

If ‘yes’ wins, a constitutional reform council will be formed from among elected representatives in the next parliament. This council will have 180 working days from its first sitting to complete the constitutional reforms. Within 30 working days after that, the upper house will be constituted based on the PR system. Its tenure will last until the lower house completes its term. Constitutional amendments will require approval by a majority of upper house members.

If ‘no’ wins, there will be no legal obligation to form an upper house. Any government may establish one only if it wishes.

Bringing voters to polling centres is fundamentally the responsibility of political parties, their candidates and activists. As the general election and referendum will be held on the same day, parties are expected to make maximum efforts to mobilise voters.

Yet the referendum concerns 48 issues, which are about the constitution and complex in nature. Voters are therefore likely to respond largely in line with how political parties frame and explain the questions. Thus, the referendum outcome will depend significantly on the positions taken by political parties.

If ‘yes’ wins, it will undoubtedly usher in a new era of reform. But if ‘no’ wins, it is not that all paths will be closed. Some reforms may still be enacted through executive orders. However, many fundamental reforms will fall into uncertainty, dependent on the desires and political will of whichever party forms the government.

Before the fall of military ruler HM Ershad, the BNP, Bangladesh Awami League and other major parties developed three-bloc reform proposals. But these were never given legal status, and thus most of them were not implemented by subsequent parliaments.

Since 2001, every election has produced a government with a two-thirds majority for the ruling party and its coalition. If any party or alliance secures a two-third majority in the upcoming election, the fate of reform becomes unpredictable. A government with a simple majority may be pressured by the opposition to adopt at least some reform measures.