The ruling Awami League is not confident that the parties declaring participation in the upcoming 12th national election will follow through until the end. To ensure a competitive election, the party is allowing its members to participate as independent candidates in case any party withdraws at the last moment.
As a result, the Awami League is keeping its political strategy confidential until the selection and withdrawal of nomination papers. This has led to confusion within the alliance. The deadline for submitting nomination papers, according to the declared election schedule, ends today.
Some parties in the 14-party alliance are uncertain about participating in the election as an alliance due to a lack of assurance regarding seat distribution negotiations with the ruling party. Many party leaders have been indecisive about submitting their nomination papers.
Recently, the Awami League conveyed a message to its allies that there would be no negotiations if they didn't submit nomination papers. Consequently, candidates from other parties within the alliance began submitting their nomination papers, according to leaders from several alliance parties.
Apart from the parties in the 14-party alliance, the Jatiya Party, some of the Islamist parties and parties known as king’s parties, who are taking part in the polls, are also expecting a negotiation with the ruling party. According to the sources, The Awami League doesn’t want to give any chance to the parties in the alliance or its allies to negotiate over distribution of seats.
Several ruling party leaders at the policymaking level said the Awami League wants to show the election without the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as a competitive one.
Policymakers are aiming to gain a clear understanding of the participating parties and their candidates in the election before finalising decisions on independent candidates and potential exclusions.
The allocation of the boat symbol to candidates from parties within the alliance and partners will be decided at the last moment, just before the deadline for withdrawing nomination papers expires.
The Awami League has strategically nominated "weaker" candidates in constituencies where the incumbent MP is from allied parties, anticipating potential negotiations with the 14-party alliance and other allies.
While the Jatiya Party (JaPa) has participated in the last three elections after negotiations with the Awami League, it has displayed hesitancy in deciding to participate in the upcoming election. The ruling party is concerned that JaPa might withdraw from the election at any point. Additionally, the Awami League perceives the parties within the alliance as lacking strength at the grassroots level, leading to a reluctance to engage in official negotiations with them. A senior AL leader mentioned that initiatives would be taken at the last moment to ensure the success of some top leaders within the alliance.
However, the Awami League leaders are saying that only party president Sheikh Hasina knows about the entire election policy of the party. However, it seems that she is stressing more on voter turnout than maintaining alliances.
Nomination paper submission
Since the announcement of the election schedule, members of the 14-party alliance have reached out to Amir Hossain Amu, the alliance coordinator, for negotiations. However, there has been no assurance from the ruling party regarding these negotiations. Amir Hossain Amu recently instructed alliance parties to submit nomination papers for their candidates. The ruling party conveyed a message that there would be no negotiations if the alliance candidates did not submit their nomination papers.
While Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon initially obtained the nomination paper for Dhaka-8 constituency, party sources indicate that they have decided not to submit the nomination paper due to a lack of assurance from the Awami League about obtaining the boat symbol for this constituency.
Later, on Wednesday, two nomination papers from Barishal-2 and Barishal-3 constituencies were obtained on behalf of Rashed Khan Menon from Barishal-2 and Barishal-3 constituencies.
The incumbent MP’s from these two constituencies are from the Awami League and Jatiya Party respectively. The Workers' Party is expecting to get the boat symbol from the Barishal-3 constituency. Barishal district Awami League general secretary Talukder Md Yunus has secured the nomination of the ruling party from this constituency.
Fazle Hossain Badsha, the general secretary of the Workers Party, is anticipating the boat symbol for Rajshahi-2 constituency but has not received confirmation from the Awami League.
Mohammad Ali, the president of Awami League in Rajshahi city, has obtained the party nomination for this constituency.
Rashed Khan Menon, when contacted by Prothom Alo, stated that he intends to run for election from Barishal and that there have been no discussions regarding negotiations so far.
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD) president Hasanul Haq Inu has submitted his nomination paper for Kushtia-2 constituency. He is getting the boat symbol from this constituency according to the sources in the Awami League. However, it is not confirmed yet whether any other JSD leader will get the boat symbol or not.
JSD general secretary Shirin Akhter is the incumbent MP of Feni-1 constituency. She has been elected from this constituency for two consecutive terms.
Former executive member of central Awami League Alauddin Ahmed Chowdhury Nasim has secured the party nomination from this constituency this time.
Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari, the chairman of Bangladesh Tarikat Federation, and Anwar Hossain Manju, the president of Jatiya Party (JP), may receive the boat symbol for Chattogram-2 and Pirojpur-2 constituencies, respectively. However, the Awami League has already nominated candidates for both constituencies.
Najibul Bashar informed Prothom Alo that he was in Chattogram to submit his nomination papers and is expecting negotiations to commence soon.
Responding to this on Wednesday, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader stated, “Is it mandatory to share constituencies with the allies? We cannot choose someone just because of the alliance, despite that person not having people’s support. We must win the election.”
Currently, there are eight elected MPs from the parties under the 14-party alliance, excluding the Awami League, all of whom competed in the polls with the boat symbol. According to sources in the Awami League, the party may allocate the boat symbol for allies in some four constituencies this time.
The Gazipur model of election
The Awami League, which has been in power for three consecutive terms, is facing multifaceted pressure from various quarters at home and abroad over holding an election without the participation of the BNP. Since not all parties are participating in the election, the ruling party aims to demonstrate a substantial voter turnout.
To achieve this, the party has decided to permit its members to run in the election as independent or rebel candidates. Despite the risk of internal turmoil within the party, it is willing to embrace this challenge. This approach has been termed the "Gazipur Model" within the party, as the Gazipur city polls witnessed a voter turnout of nearly 49 percent.
Former Gazipur city mayor Jahangir Alam's mother, Jayeda Khatun, emerged victorious as an independent candidate, defeating the Awami League's nominated candidate, Azmat Ulla Khan. This election was considered credible by all stakeholders. Despite initially being expelled from the ruling party, Jahangir Alam was later reinstated.
In response to independent candidates, Obaidul Quader stated, "Every party member must abide by the decision taken. We won't do anything without thinking it out. We too have some strategies."
*This report appeared on the print and online versions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ashish Basu