Diplomatic capacity regarding Myanmar must be strengthened

Where does the situation in Myanmar stand now? A guerilla leader of the Chin state fighting against the government claims that the army will topple this year. What do you think?

The bloody civil war that ensued from the military coup in Myanmar in 2021 took on new proportions in October last year. Three of the rebel groups fighting against the junta merged to form the Three Brotherhood Alliance. These comprise the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. This alliance stepped up its operations against the junta government in October last year under the name of Operation 1027 and achieved unprecedented success. This posed as a serious threat to the junta government.

The manner in which the Three Brotherhood Alliance is capturing the cities of various regions as well as military installations, many are apprehending that extensive territory in Myanmar is going under their control. It is being assumed that around 48 per cent of the territory has fallen from junta’s control. Many large towns of the Rakhine and Chin state alongside Bangladesh’s border have been captured. It fact it is apprehended that even the capital of Rakhine, Sittwe, will very soon be taken over by the Arakan Army.

PDF has also joined in this fight of the rebels against the military. PDF is basically controlled by the largest population of Bamar. The Bamar never before took position against the armed forces. So this joint resistance against the military has taken on new shape and proportions.

However, while many western media outlets state that the Myanmar junta government will fall within this year and guerilla leaders make the same claim, this is hardly plausible. After all, it has not been possible to put much pressure on the junta government’s control of the central region. The places where they face challenges are basically ethnic regions and alongside the border. So it cannot be said for certain that the Myanmar forces will be completely defeated.

The impact of these conflicts within Myanmar is being felt along the Bangladesh border. How is Bangladesh dealing the matter, do you think?

As Myanmar’s Chin and Rakhine states are along our border, we are feeling the impact now. Life and property have been damaged by mortar shells fired over the border. There have been deaths. Also, members of the junta government’s army have fled from the rebel groups and entered Bangladesh for shelter. All this is a threat and challenge for Bangladesh’s national security. Till now Bangladesh has been treating this with caution and from a humanitarian viewpoint. The Myanmar military members who fled into Bangladesh were given medical treatment and shelter and then sent back in an organised manner. But the matter of concern is that the clashes within Myanmar may increase further and this will have an adverse effect on Bangladesh. Our border security may be at stake. The rebels groups may also be chased by the Myanmar military and enter Bangladesh. We must strengthen our border security further and prepare accordingly.

There is a general perception that Bangladesh does not have much of an understanding about Myanmar. This makes it difficult to adopt policies and strategies concerning Myanmar. Do you believe that too?

Other than India, Myanmar is our only neighbouring state. That is why everyone agrees that we have never been able to forge strong ties with Myanmar or we never even made the effort.

Myanmar recognised Bangladesh after independence, but after that we did nothing to establish an understanding with them. And so Myanmar seems to remain an unknown neighbour. We did not make any effort to have tangible diplomatic, security and people-to-people ties. We never had adequate knowledge at a policymaking level regarding Myanmar. Even if we look at the diplomatic side, it was only after the Rohingya problem emerged that our foreign ministry created a separate wing for Myanmar. Before that there was no separate arrangement to carry out diplomatic activities with Myanmar. That is why there never was any move to build up the diplomacy and capacity that was required. As a result, the policies we drew up at various times regarding Myanmar were very temporary and inadequate. We have seen the outcome of this at various times.

India also faces the impact of the Myanmar situation. The US undersecretary for South and Central Asia, Donald Lu recently stated that the situation in Mynamar was escalating and that Bangladesh and India should be on alert. What does this ‘alert’ mean? What can the two countries do?

Myanmar’s border with India is in the northeast. The impact of the Myanmar situation is falling upon India just as it is falling upon Bangladesh. But India is more vulnerable because of the various insurgencies and armed groups in its northeastern states. They are being influenced by the armed groups of Myanmar. That is why India and Myanmar armies had joint operations against such groups in the past. India is much more worried than Bangladesh about the operations of the armed groups in Myanmar. India had a project in the Rakhine state, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport project that will link India with Myanmar by river and road. Half a billion dollars has already been spent there. But work on the project has come to an almost full standstill due to the Arakan Army’s activities in Rakhine. No progress is being made. The conflict in Rakhine had a direct adverse impact on Indian activities in the region. The matter will grow more complex in the days to come. That is why Donald Lu has advised caution for Bangladesh and India. We should consolidate our strength at the borders where needed. We need to regularly monitor what is happening on that side of the border.

Many apprehend that Myanmar may break up. What do you think?

The armed groups that are struggling against the junta government have specific and limited objectives. None of them singly want to grab power at the centre. None of them are wanting their respective regions to be independent states. They want to have control on their respective regions and resources. Till now they have no agenda to establish democracy or have elections and such, even though the West is interested in that. Basically, the province-based rebel groups want to ensure that they face no pressure from the centre. So it is not realistic to imagine that Myanmar is going to break up.

Will the situation in Myanmar have an effect on the prevailing geopolitical situation prevailing in this region? How will this be manifest?

Several regional powers are directly involved in the conflict or situation in Myanmar and have created their sphere of influence. China and India may be particularly mentioned in this regard. China has directly being backing the junta government in Myanmar, and at the same time it is maintaining contact with the various rebel groups. China is maintaining relations with both sides. At the same time we observe that India has fallen back somewhat in the prevailing circumstances. After all, for so long they had been keeping up ties with the junta government had had nothing to do with the rebel groups. In that sense, China has the upper hand.

Outside of the regional powers, the US is making an effort to establish its sphere of influence here. Russia is getting involved in this competition too, in some areas. And in economic terms, Japan, South Korea and Singapore are maintaining relations with Myanmar for the national interests. The strategic competition between China and Russia globally has an impact in Myanmar too. The US has drawn up its Burma Act facilitating it to extend support to ethnic groups in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Thailand and will be able to accelerate the process within Myanmar further. So the US may become more active in the region to implement the Burma Act. It looks like the US versus China strategic competition will have a direct impact on the region.

Which area in Myanmar will be most impacted by the Burma Act and the China-US strategic competition, do you think? After all, China has influence on some of the ethnic groups and the US has influence on some.

Overall, the national interests of China and the US are involved in Myanmar. Both countries have a sharp watch on the Rakhine region which neighbours Bangladesh. The reason is that a deep seaport has already been constructed in Rakhine and China has 80 per cent ownership of it. This port is deeply significant to China because it is not just a deep sea port, but two pipelines go from here up till Kunming in China. One of the pipelines carries petroleum to Kunming and the other gas. The Strait of Malacca is a vital route for China’s energy security. If for any reason the Malacca strait is blocked, this would be a threat to China. Then it will be able to bypass this and bring in energy from the deep sea port in Rakhine. That is why the deep sea port is no sensitive and important to China.

Secondly, the Bay of Bengal, that is, the India Ocean, is extremely important for the Indo-Pacific Strategy declared by the US and its allies. Rakhine is an entry point to this Indo-Pacific region. That is why China has placed so much importance on setting up a deep sea port here.

Thirdly, certain specialised economic zones are being set up in Rakhine, mostly owned by China and Russia.

Fourthly, of the six economic corridors being established as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, two are river routes. One of them is known as the China-Myanmar corridor. So Rakhine has multidimensional important to China. And in the meantime, the US will not want China to establish its influence here and will want to resist this. As this area is close to Bangladesh, whatever happens there will have an effect on Bangladesh.

The biggest challenge Bangladesh faces now is to send back the Rohingyas sheltered here. Many are of the opinion that we should set up contact with the rebel groups in Myanmar too. What do you think our strategy should be?

Firstly we must consolidate our security measures. We must step up our capacity to be able to constantly monitor the situation. We need to have regular communication with the other regional countries too in this regard. This will include China, India and ASEAN. All the superpowers are trying to establish their influence here. We must analyse their objectives and their actions.

The conventional diplomacy we have been practicing so far will not do in such circumstances. We need to take up innovative and creative diplomacy. So far we have been maintaining relations with the junta government. We now need to set up some form on informal communication with the rebel groups who have extended their control in territories up till the border areas.

I do not see any initiative on our part to take up a policy at the state level in such a complex circumstance. It is not just the foreign ministry that is to be involved in this. An interministerial task force must be set up. Political decision and recommendations are necessary. We are seeing the possibility of Rohingya repatriation shrinking in the prevailing circumstances. It is no longer an important issue for the junta government in Myanmar. But if we keep up communication with the other groups about this issue, then we may secure an advantageous position in the future.      

Thank you.

Thank you too.