Awami League's election reverberations are all around. "Joy Bangla!" "Jitbe abar nouka! (The boat will win again)' or 'Barbar dorkar Sheikh Hasinar sarkar (Sheikh Hasina government is needed again and again)' -- these are slogans of campaign processions on the streets. While stuck in the unbearable traffic congestion for hours, I think about the 'boat and who is contesting against it?
Two dozen parties are participating in the election with Awami League. These include some kings' parties and some small parties loyal to Awami League. The only notable one among these is Jatiya Party. This party has agreed to join the election on assurance of getting some seats. Besides, the Awami League has fielded some 'dummy' candidates to imply a competitive election.
So Awami League has no real competitor in the election. The contest in the 300 constituencies will be held between Awami League and 'loyal' or dummy candidates. The party which was a real opponent in the elections has been driven away from the scene by arresting its leaders and activists or launching an arrest drive across the country. Unless there is any natural disaster, one thing can be said with certainly -- that the 7 January election is being held and Awami League is winning in the 300 constituencies (on their own and with loyalists).
The elections of 2024 have ended before they've even started.
2.
A task of Awami League is yet left over the election and that is to show that the election has been 'inclusive' by bringing voters to the polling stations on the voting day. For that, all sorts of pressure is being created now.
So there will be candidates and some voters, and a party will certainly win in the election of 2024. But the question will remain -- how much of an election is this and how much has the victory been ensured through repression and evil strategy.
Instructions are being given to submit relief cards for the destitute and elderly people to force them to turn up at the polling stations. Threats are being issued to stop civic services (allowances, certificates, attestation). Many more pressures will be created to bring the voters to the polling stations. The way Awami League has shaped the state system in the last 15 years, none of the state agencies will bring perpetrators to book for their illegal activities. As a result, the party will be able to bring some additional voters by creating various pressures. It will perhaps be possible to show sufficient 'participation' by stamping seals on the ballots, having 'approved' observers and controlled media statements.
So there will be candidates and some voters, and a party will certainly win in the election of 2024. But the question will remain -- how much of an election is this and how much has the victory been ensured through repression and evil strategy.
A question arises: How is the Awami League government to blame if BNP and its allies do not participate in the election? However, considering the political history and culture of the country, there should be an initial question: has the government even tried to bring NP to the 2024 elections?
The statement of Abdur Razzaque, the agriculture minister and a key ruling party leader, made it clear that there were efforts, but were done in a crooked way. He said a proposal was offered to bring BNP into the polls by releasing all of their leaders overnight. Some ministers denied the authenticity of his statement, while he provided a different explanation in the face of pressure.
But the incident of Barrister Shahjahan Omar is shining proof that there were efforts, as disclosed by the agriculture minister. Shahjahan Omar, like other BNP leaders now languishing in jail, was imprisoned and placed on remand in a case. All of a sudden, he secured bail, walked out of jail within hours, and announced candidacy the next day following a meeting with the prime minister.
A similar incident happened to another BNP leader, Ekramuzzaman. If the agriculture minister’s statement becomes false or personal, what are the explanations for these events?
These incidents prove that the government tried to bring BNP into the elections by exerting pressure after imprisoning them, rather than through negotiations and dialogue. These incidents also indicate that the sabotage cases against the BNP leaders are not substantive, and their bail depends on the will of the government.
This sign was evident not only in the cases of bail but also in the cases of punishment. If not, when the conviction rate for serious crimes like violence against women is 3.6 per cent, how is it that opposition leaders are being sentenced in nearly 80 per cent of fictitious political cases? Why are there frequent hearings only for these particular cases? Why are there night sessions in the courts? Why are policemen being forced to give testimony in line with the case statements?
There has been an attempt to establish a one-party government system in the country by keeping only the loyal and insignificant parties active, just like the China and Cambodia model. It can really happen in Bangladesh if BNP can be banned by bringing allegations of sabotage against them.
There is ground to believe that the administration, the police and every state institution has now been engaged to curtail or undermine the people's right to vote and suppress any movement against the fake election. Thus a one-sided election is being ensured where Awami League will emerge victorious unilaterally.
We may see more repressive policies to maintain the victory in the next five years. A demand has already arisen to ban a major political party like BNP. Besides, there have been different mysterious sabotage incidents and subsequent fatalities across the country.
Ali Riaz, a noted columnist, said in an article that there has been an attempt to establish a one-party government system in the country by keeping only the loyal and insignificant parties active, just like the China and Cambodia model. It can really happen in Bangladesh if BNP can be banned by bringing about allegations of sabotage against them.
We might be heading towards these situation through back-to-back staged elections. But the question is, what glory do these victories carry? And who will benefit from it?
4.
Experts have written extensively about the apprehended collapse of the economy and of democracy in the aftermath of a contrived election. This election will likely harm people’s social bonds too. The prevailing repressive policy is dividing the political society into two: the oppressor and the oppressed.
It will have far-reaching effects on society and increase discord and hatred among the people. The foreign states in favour of the ruling coterie will take further advantage if the strength and unity of the state are undermined in this way. Others may try to take advantage by imposing different sorts of sanctions.
Thus, a party or group wins through repressive policies, divisions and staged elections, but it is the country that suffers an ultimate loss. Surely the Liberation War was fought to establish such an election or such a state system.