Seven challenges for the new foreign minister in difficult times

Former information minister and Awami League joint general secretary Hasan Mahmud has been bestowed with the responsibility of the foreign ministry in the new government. Tackling the government's diplomatic challenges ahead, depends upon him to a great extent.

The new foreign minister, elected as member of parliament for a the fourth consecutive time, had been state minister for foreign affairs in the past. He had also the environment minister. After the formation of the new cabinet, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader mentioned the diplomatic challenges among other challenges ahead. Let's look at the challenges that lie ahead for the new foreign minister.

The biggest and the most important challenge in the foreign affairs for the foreign minister, to my mind, is to bring relations between Bangladesh and the US relations to a reasonable level. For quite some time before the election, relations between the two countries had been strained.

In 2021, the US government imposed sanctions on RAB and on some of its serving and former officials.

In May 2023, the US declared its policy against those impeding a fair election. Those who would come under the visa restrictions included the administration, the law enforcing agencies, politicians and the judiciary.

They also said the implementation of this restriction started in September 2023.

Bangladesh was not invited to the Democracy Conference initiated by the White House in 2021 and 2023. The new policy on labour rights was declared on 16 November. While declaring the policy, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken mentioned the name of Bangladesh's labour leader Kalpana Akhtar.

There were apprehensions that the US may impose visa and trade restrictions if a one-sided election took place in 2024.

After the declaration of the election schedule, US voice became a lot quieter than before election. Although the US maintained that the election was not free and fair, once the new government was installed, their reaction was similar to their reactions after the elections in 2014 and 2018. As a result, many think the government has come to an understanding with the US.

US ambassador Peter Haas made a courtesy call on the foreign minister on 17 January. After the meeting. while talking to newsmen, Peter Haas said the US is ready to work on bilateral issues in the days to come. (Prothom Alo 18 January 2024).

If his statement is to be taken literally, it seems the Bangladesh-US relations are restored. However, the statement of the prime minister is clearly different. In a meeting at Tungipara on 14 January, she criticised the US and termed it 'shameless'. Her anger indicates that the possibility of restoring relations remains apprehensive.

Although the harshness of the US statements softened in the pre-election weeks, the US State Department in its regular briefing repeatedly said the US policy has not been changed on the Bangladesh election.
Besides, issues like human rights and labour rights are hanging like Damocles' sword above Bangladesh.

The foreign minister has to remain alert about future steps of the US, and whether any step will actually be taken or not. And the foreign minister has to continue his efforts to normalise bilateral relations.

Whatever friendly relations exist with China and India, Bangladesh's main export market is in the West. Then there is the issue of overseas remittance. In the 2022-23 fiscal, a total of USD 3.52 billion came from the US as remittance. The US is second only to Saudi Arabia in remittance to Bangladesh. So any type of restrictions from the US may pitch the economy into further crisis.

In a statement issued by the high representative of the European Union (EU) on 9 January regarding the election, importance was placed on democracy, human rights, the rule of law and such values. EU also expressed it regret that all major political parties did not take part in the election.

The EU ambassador in Dhaka, Charles Whitely, paid a courtesy call on the foreign minister on 17 January. The next day he met with the prime minister. On behalf of the EU, he congratulated her on being elected prime minister for the fourth consecutive time. The ambassador pledged to continue providing Bangladesh all facilities and benefits under EBA (Everything but Arms) and also the GSP+ facilities.

Compared to EU's previous stand regarding the election or the statement of the high representative, the ambassador's words seemed to be a lot more accommodating and positive for the government. However, of the two facilities that he mentioned, the EBA facilities are also for least developed countries. This facility will not be available after graduation. The GSP+ conditionalities include human rights, labour rights, environmental protection and climate change, and good governance.

Will Bangladesh maintain the 27 conventions in this regard? If it does, that is all well and good. If not, the foreign minister will be in dire straits in his efforts to hold on to this biggest market for Bangladesh exports.

The reaction of the United Kingdom towards the election is much on the same lines as that of the US. In a statement issued on the day after the election, UK's foreign office said that the standards of human rights, the rule of law and elements of the democratic process were not consistently met during the election. US also condemned acts of violence and intimidation prior to the election.

In the global context, the UK may not be as important as the US, but it is a large destination for Bangladesh export. A large Bangladeshi diaspora has also settled there. That is why the foreign minister will have to make an effort to maintain effective good relations with the country.

By any consideration, Bangladesh's relationship with India is most important for Bangladesh's foreign policy. The top leadership of both countries repeatedly state that these relations are now at the highest level and a role model in bilateral relations. While the countries of the West had been issuing all sorts of statements about the 2024 election, India was more or less silent.

The issue of the Bangladesh elections was discussed at the 2+2 dialogue between the US and India on 10 November last year. The two sides could not reach a consensus concerning a fair and inclusive election in Bangladesh. After that, India expressed its support for however the Bangladesh government wanted to hold the election.

No matter how string friendship may be, there always remain certain challenges in bilateral ties, particularly when the two countries are immediate neighbours. Bangladesh had handed over almost everything for which India has asked. This was reflected in the prime minister's words too. On the flip side, India has displayed indifference and reluctance in meeting Bangladesh's few demands.

People are still being shot along the border by BSF guards. The excuses made by the Indian government to exonerate themselves of these killings, simply infuriates the people of Bangladesh further. India is also depriving Bangladesh of its share of the river Teesta's water on the excuse of their domestic politics.

Transit has been granted over Bangladesh territory to India's northeastern states. But Bangladesh hasn't been given permission simply to cross the Siliguri corridor to reach Nepal. Then there are the non-tariff barriers. The foreign minister must continue negotiations with India regarding these irritants.

The pre and post-election statements and reactions of China have been pleasing to the government. The very day after the election, China's ambassador in Dhaka called upon the prime minister and congratulated her. In the past few years, relations between China and the present government have been more or less smooth.

In bilateral trade, there is a big surplus in favour of China. China is the main source of capital machinery and consumer goods. China has provided Bangladesh with loans on commercial interest rates for certain large projects. Many Chinese companies have also been awarded contracts for large projects too. Bangladesh has joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) too.

The government will have no problem maintaining such relations with are favourable for China, particularly as there is an influential group in Bangladesh who have financial interests with China. Bangladesh's only regret is China's unfortunate stance regarding the Rohingya crisis. China has always taken a stand against Bangladesh on the Rohingya issue at various UN forums. But the Bangladesh government has never castigated China for this. On the contrary, if often follows China's advice.

A problem may crop up over the proposed Teesta project. China is supposed to implement the one billion dollar project for the overall management and rehabilitation of the river Teesta. On 21 December last year, the Chinese ambassador in Dhaka expressed his hope that work on the project would start after the election. A significant number of Chinese nationals will work in the implementation of the project.

The project site is near India's 'chicken neck' or Siliguri, considered to be a sensitive location where Indian security is concerned. It is still uncertain what stand India will take regarding this project or how far it will apply pressure to have it scrapped.

Meanwhile, China will be understandably displeased in the project is shelved. It may be recalled that the agreement for the construction of the Sonadia deep sea port was about to be signed when Bangladesh backed off at the last minute under Indian pressure. China was visibly annoyed.

Many believe that this disruption of the Sonadia project has a role behind China's incongruent stance regarding the Rohingya issue. After winning support from both India and China to hold a controlled election, the foreign minister's task will now to be strike a balance between the two countries.

There needs no preamble about the much-discussed Rohingya issue. During the five years of Hasan Mahmud's predecessor's term, there was no progress in repatriating the over one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

In the meantime, the Rohingya camps have become hubs of armed conflict, drugs and human trafficking. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has made matters worse. One of the major challenges for foreign minister Hasan Mahmud will be to set up effective communication with all relevant sides and, with support of the international community, relieve Bangladesh of this burden.

Whenever any human rights organisation like Amnesty International, Transparency International or Human Rights Watch bring about allegations of extrajudicial killing, indiscriminate arrests, silencing the media or the lack of justice, the government rejects such allegations and discovers some sort of conspiracy. They accuse the concerned organisations of being biased.

This hardly is effective. The international community deems the narrative of these organisations more credible than that of the government. It will be a challenge for the foreign minister to retrieve the government from this culture of denial, interact with the international human rights organisations and create a credible reputation abroad.

Outside of these seven challenges, the foreign ministry has to be involved in two other issues, whether it wants to or not. One of these is the overseas labour market, for which the government has a separate ministry. But it is the responsibility of the foreign ministry to sort out the irregularities and problems that crop up in this area. The other challenge is human trafficking, a matter under the home ministry. But the foreign minister will face all sorts of pressure on this issue too.

Good luck, foreign minister.

* Md Touhid Hossain is former foreign secretary

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir and Rabiul Islam