We have a small group that discusses the country's economic issues. One of the group members is Humayun Kabir, whom we have dubbed as an untraditional economist. On October he suddenly said, three billion dollars will be remitted to the country next Ramadan. The economy was floundering at the time, the reserves were under extreme pressure, the country had just emerged from a remittance boycott. So we were rather taken aback.
The fact was that our remittance target at the time was just about 2.5 billion dollars. Yes! The only way that remittance could increase was if the government devalued the dollar rate or provided incentive. The government didn't change the dollar rate significantly. Even now, the dollar rate is higher in the 'hundi' channels. Yet we have almost achieved the 3 billion dollar target (we'll know after the full data comes in on 31 March). And all credit goes to our expatriate brothers and sisters.
I find our expatriate brothers and sisters almost everywhere when I go abroad, be it in Europe or at any shop in Thailand. When they hear us speak in Bangla, they get so emotional. Many of them cannot even express their feelings. They just stare in silence.
For example, when I was had a meal of biriyani in the Netherlands, the bill came with a 50 per cent discount. A brother from Chattogram had been serving. Or when I was speaking on the phone in Bangla while buying mangoes in Thailand, the Sylheti shop assistant loaded a full basket of the best mangoes for me and slashed the price. I often receive such love and care when I go abroad on a visit or for work.
One of the most poignant expressions of patriotism is the expatriates' remittance boycott during the July mass uprising. In the recent political history of our country, remittance fell to an all-time low in July last year. The Awami League government was in such a panic that they began a campaign through the diplomatic missions.
Expatriates demonstrating in the UAE were even arrested. They were faced with extended prison sentences. The Awami League government did not stand by their side. Then the government collapsed. It was only after the interim government of Professor Muhammad Yunus took over responsibility and made the effort, that those brothers in UAE were finally released from jail.
At a juncture when the new government was under pressure of the reserves, external loans were not coming in and investment had ground to a halt, it was the expatriates than once again loomed up as saviours. During the budget proposal for this year, the World Bank predicted it would be 24 billion dollars in one year. But the people of Bangladesh do not fall into line with such theories. They spurned the temptations of immediate gratification and instead started to send in their money through the banking channels. Thus this milestone.
Now the thing is, do these remittance warriors receive due respect from us? From 2019 to 2023, a total of 19,387 expatriates returned to the country as corpses. There are over 10 million expatriates who are bereft of voting rights. Most of the time, they do not get due services and facilities from our diplomatic missions. They live inhuman lives, sending their hard-earned money back home.
Then there are the agents or middlemen who devour a large chunk of their money. We have seen this in the case of their airline tickets. Many are leaving for their expatriate jobs without even minimum training. Some of them hardly know how they can communicate there. Then there are those going through illegal routes and meet their death. Even their bodies do not return. And there are innumerable cases of those being cheated once they go overseas.
Once I met a Bangladeshi brother who had arrived on an Air India flight in the Middle East. He was literally sobbing in hunger. He had no money to even buy food. I was the only Bangladeshi there. I managed to help him out then, but what about the other times? There are inordinately long queues for Biman tickets at Dubai.
The laudable efforts of the finance ministry and Bangladesh Bank have given us hope. They efforts will meet with even greater success if they can bring back the money siphoned out of the country. If they can, then we will not have to turn to anyone for loans
First the people are segregated on the basis of their clothes and appearances. The workers' lines are long and their checking is tedious. They are always mistreated at the airports. It is true that many of them are quite ignorant about many things, but has there been any effort to teach or train them?
Up until 2020 even Pakistan's remittance was less than that of Bangladesh. Now they have crossed 30 billion? What about us? There will be lower remittance next month, has the government taken any preparation? If our remittance is to be stepped up, we must definitely sent people on white collar jobs. That calls for education, training and long-term planning.
The expatriates must be provided with security and facilities. It is not impossible for 35 billion dollars in remittance to come in through this sector. But the government must make the effort. The expatriate welfare ministry is making an efforts, airfare has been lessened, the state of the airport is better than before. Work is on to devise training plans and policies. There may be further changes ahead.
Now let's come to another bit of good news. Before the end of the month, the reserves in the country have crossed 25 billion dollars. According to the central bank, on Thursday (27 March) reserves had increased to 25.44 billion dollars. In the meantime, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), based on the BPM-6 methodology the reserves in the country are 20.29 dollars. IMF loans haven't come in and there are no other big loans in the pipeline. There is talk of big investments, but that hasn't really materialised as yet. Yet despite all that, we have managed to prevent any dip in our reserves. In fact, the reserves are climbing.
The government is making LC payments, is repaying interest on loans. Not only that, they are also repaying the long overdue payments in the power and energy sectors. That is why the increase in reserves perhaps relatively low despite so much remittance. But these payments have brought much stability to the economy.
It was exactly around the same time last year that I was writing about despair. Even at the outset of this government I did not have such high hopes. But the laudable efforts of the finance ministry and Bangladesh Bank have given us hope. They efforts will meet with even greater success if they can bring back the money siphoned out of the country. If they can, then we will not have to turn to anyone for loans. The whole nation looks towards those good times.
* Subail Bin Alam is a columnist on sustainable development issues. He may be contacted at contact@subail.com
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir