Voter turnout is the main challenge
Increasing voter turnout in the 12th parliamentary election is the main concern for ruling Awami League (AL) as BNP and the opposition parties are boycotting the election.
The ruling party wants over 50 per cent turnout and fixed some strategies to ensure that. But it remains to be seen how successful the plan of the ruling party to increase the turnout will become.
The 12th general election will start at 8:00am and continue till 4:00pm on Sunday, 7 January. Awami League’s main opponent BNP and several other parties are boycotting the election. They had launched a mass campaign for 10 days throughout the country urging voters not to go to the polling centers. BNP has enforced hartal on the voting day.
Given the situation, turnout of voters remains a concern. Moreover, big cities like Dhaka and Chattogram usually see low turnout and many voters might have gone to village homes during the three day holiday.
BNP boycotted the tenth parliament election in 2014. The election commission (EC) said 40 per cent vote was cast in that election. Although all registered parties including BNP joined the 11th parliament election in 2018, there were widespread allegations over the election. As per the EC, turnout was 80 per cent in the election.
These teams prepared lists of campaigners consisting of leaders-activists of Awami League and associate bodies who were trained to bring the voters. Yet a section close to the government has apprehension as to how many voters can be drawn despite such endeavors.
BNP got 25 to 30 per cent of total votes in the seventh parliamentary election in 1996, eighth parliamentary election in 2001 and ninth parliamentary election in 2008. Awami League got 28 to 41 per cent of votes in these three elections. Taking these statistics into account, it can be said that BNP enjoys support of at least 25 to 30 per cent voters of the country. Besides, a section of general voters might not be interested to go to polling stations considering the overall political situation.
Of the total of 300 seats, more or less 130 might see a competitive election. Many central Awami League leaders think turnout would be better in these 130 seats. But taking voters to the polling centers would be difficult in the constituencies where competition is unlikely.
Turnout is usually low in big cities. Despite participation of BNP, turnout was 25.3 per cent in Dhaka north city corporation and 29 per cent in south city corporation in the elections held in 2020.
BNP boycotted city corporation elections of Gazipur, Khulna, Barishal, Sylhet and Rajshahi. Turnouts ranged between 47 per cent and 58 per cent in these elections. It can be noted that councilor candidates play a major role in increasing turnout in local government elections.
Awami League and its allies won uncontested in 153 seats in the 2014 election boycotted by BNP and all other opposition parties. As that election was controversial, Awami League was careful from the beginning this time to prevent a recurrence of the 2014 election.
Awami League usually does not allow any ‘rebel’ candidates contesting in the elections against the party-nominated ones. The party even suspends those who challenge the party’s decision. But this norm was not followed in the upcoming election. The ruling party rather encouraged the party leaders to contest as independent candidates against the party nominated candidates. This strategy was taken for two reasons. Firstly, to give the election a competitive look and secondly to increase turnout as Awami League leaders think the presence of powerful independent candidates would increase the number of votes. AL sources said the ruling party has taken up some more strategies to increase the turnout.
Polling station-based committees will work to ensure voter turnout. The ruling party has trained several lakhs workers to bring the voters to the polling stations. In September, Awami League formed 12 teams in the country consisting of former Chhatra League leaders. Each team was given charge of five to seven organizational districts. These teams prepared lists of campaigners consisting of leaders-activists of Awami League and associate bodies who were trained to bring the voters.
Yet a section close to the government has apprehension as to how many voters can be drawn despite such endeavors.
A senior AL leader told Prothom Alo that a voter turnout would be fairly good this time as enthusiasm can be seen among the voters.
The AL leader said the party expects better turnout than in 2014.
Other than the strategy of AL, there were some more initiatives to increase the turnout. Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) on 25 December held a view exchange meeting with councilors of two city corporations. The meeting decided that councilors will work to bring the voters to the polling stations. Police will ensure the safety of voters. Legal action would be taken against those who try to bar the voters from going to polling stations. The election commission (EC) has also launched various awareness programmes on media and social media. The EC, however, said increasing turnout is not its duty.
Election commissioner Md Ahsan Habib Khan told Prothom Alo, “The turnout is surely a challenge as some parties have boycotted the election. It is not the election commission’s duty to bring the voters to polling centers. Our duty is to ensure a conducive atmosphere so that voters can cast their vote without any problem. The commission has taken all the necessary steps in this end.”