Sunk as an ‘accomplice’ of Awami League, can Jatiya Party rise again?

Jatiya Party (JaPa) was once considered the third force in the country’s politics. In many cases, the party also played an important role in the power equation between the two major parties. But due to its long association with Awami League, participation in controversial elections, leadership crises, and repeated splits, that position has now been lost. In the changed political reality following the July mass uprising, the party has become cornered. In the 13th National Parliamentary Election, the party failed to win a single seat; even in its strongholds such as Rangpur, its influence has collapsed. As a result, the Jatiya Party now faces a major question—can it become politically relevant again?

Many political analysts, as well as former and current leaders of Jatiya Party, believe that the party’s chances of recovering in electoral and grassroots politics have become slim. According to them, the party no longer has its own activists. Its support base has also drifted toward various other parties. Nor does it have leadership capable of rebuilding the party anew. Consequently, the Jatiya Party is now being viewed as one of the country’s smaller political parties.

From the restoration of parliamentary democracy in 1991 until 2008, Jatiya Party held the position immediately after Awami League and BNP in almost all competitive elections. In the elections of 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2008, the party secured significant representation in parliament. Later, in the controversial elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024, Jatiya Party occupied the position of the main opposition party in parliament as part of seat-sharing arrangements with Awami League—or by Awami League’s grace. But that position has now completely changed. In the 13th National Parliamentary Election, despite fielding candidates in 200 constituencies, the party failed to win any seats; none of its candidates could even emerge as main contenders.

This collapse of Jatiya Party became most evident in Rangpur. Hussein Muhammad Ershad’s personal popularity and the emotional appeal of the party’s “plough” symbol had long given the party a strong base in the Rangpur region. But in the latest national election, the party chairman, GM Quader, came third in the Rangpur-3 constituency. In a region where the Jatiya Party was once the dominant political force, its candidates are no longer even the nearest competitors. The result demonstrated that the party’s traditional vote bank is no longer intact.

Military ruler HM Ershad founded the Jatiya Party in 1986 while in power. Although Ershad was overthrown in the 1990 mass uprising, the Jatiya Party survived as a political organisation. Even after the transition from military rule to democracy, the party managed to retain influence in electoral politics and power equations. But after the student-public uprising of 2024, that reality has changed. The 1990 mass uprising could not erase the party from politics, but the 2024 mass uprising has become witness to the party’s downfall.

Political analysts and many current and former party leaders point to the Jatiya Party’s long political alliance with the Awami League as the main reason behind its present collapse. According to them, this long-standing closeness with the Awami League caused the greatest political damage to the party. The Jatiya Party supported the Awami League’s return to power in 1996. Later, becoming part of the Grand Alliance in 2008, entering seat-sharing arrangements with the Awami League in three controversial elections, remaining in parliament as a “domesticated opposition party,” prioritising power-centric politics over strengthening the organisation, and relying on intelligence agencies and foreign powers—all together gradually caused the Jatiya Party to lose its independent political identity.

Alongside the burden of its relationship with the Awami League, the Jatiya Party was also weakened by a prolonged leadership crisis and repeated splits. Even during Ershad’s lifetime, there were internal struggles over leadership. After his death in 2019, the crisis became even more acute. The conflict between Rowshan Ershad and GM Quader, followed by the resignation of some top leaders and attempts to form separate Jatiya Parties, further destabilised the party’s organisational foundation.

Even before the latest national election, the Jatiya Party experienced another major split. Leaders such as Anisul Islam Mahmud, Mujibul Haque Chunnu, Ruhul Amin Hawlader, and Kazi Firoz Rashid took separate positions. Legal disputes also emerged over which faction would retain the “plough” symbol. As a result, confusion spread among party activists and supporters even before the election campaign began. Concerned individuals believe this division further deepened the party’s electoral disaster.

However, the current leadership of Jatiya Party does not want to accept the election results as a true reflection of the party’s actual political standing. The party’s secretary general, Shamim Haider Patwary, claims that there is public resentment over the party’s role in the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections, and repeated splits have also weakened the party. Nevertheless, he believes there was a deliberate plan to keep the Jatiya Party out of parliament in the last election. According to him, if a genuinely competitive election is held, the Jatiya Party will be able to rise again.

After Ershad’s fall, the Awami League’s more than fifteen-and-a-half years in power under Sheikh Hasina became known both domestically and internationally as authoritarian and repressive. Throughout that entire period, the Jatiya Party remained aligned with the Awami League. It participated in the three controversial elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 through seat-sharing arrangements with the ruling party. Later, some of its leaders joined the government cabinet and enjoyed the benefits of power.

At the same time, the party occupied the seats of the main opposition in parliament. Yet it made no real effort to hold the government accountable.

According to political analysts, had the Jatiya Party boycotted the “engineered” elections of 2014 and 2024 like the other opposition parties, it would have been difficult for the Awami League government to survive. In 2014, Ershad made some attempt to resist. After he suddenly announced a boycott of the election, then Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh arrived in Dhaka on a one-day surprise visit on 4 December, 2013. She held a meeting with Ershad and strongly urged him to participate in the election. When Ershad did not agree, intelligence agencies later picked him up and kept him admitted to CMH until the election was over. After that, Sheikh Hasina’s government gained even greater control over the Jatiya Party. In some cases, the Awami League’s top leadership or intelligence agencies even decided whom the party would nominate. For these reasons, all political parties aligned with the 2024 mass uprising came to regard the Jatiya Party almost as much an “enemy” as the Awami League itself.

Many Jatiya Party leaders believe that by legitimising the Awami League’s misrule and controversial elections, the party gradually became alienated from the people. Before the 13th parliamentary election, the Jatiya Party was already under pressure as an “accomplice” of the Awami League. There is also an assessment within the party that, despite being known as an ally of the Awami League, even Awami League voters ultimately did not stand by the Jatiya Party in this election.

The closeness between the Awami League and the Jatiya Party is neither new nor isolated. In the election arranged by autocratic ruler Ershad in 1986, the BNP boycotted the polls, but the Awami League participated. From that point onward, a kind of political relationship developed between the two parties. In 1996, the Awami League returned to power after 21 years with the support of the Jatiya Party. In 2006 as well, the Jatiya Party stood alongside the Awami League in movements against the BNP-Jamaat alliance government. In 2008, the two parties contested the election through mutual understanding, and the Jatiya Party became a partner in government.

An analysis of the Jatiya Party’s electoral history shows that in the 1991 election, the party won 35 seats and secured nearly 12 per cent of the vote. Even while in prison, Ershad won in five constituencies in the Rangpur region. In the 12 June, 1996 election, the Jatiya Party won 32 seats with nearly 16 per cent of the vote. As the Awami League failed to secure an outright majority at the time, it formed the government with the support of the Jatiya Party.

In 2001, the Jatiya Party’s seat count dropped to 14, while its vote share fell to 7 per cent. In 2008, as part of the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, the party won 28 seats with nearly 7 per cent of the vote. In that election, a rule limiting candidates to contesting a maximum of three constituencies was introduced, and Ershad contested in Dhaka and Rangpur, winning all three seats.

In the 2014 election, the BNP, Jamaat, and other opposition parties boycotted the polls. In most constituencies, members of parliament were elected unopposed. In that one-sided election, the Jatiya Party won 34 seats and became the main opposition party in parliament. Simultaneously, party leaders also joined the government cabinet.

In 2018, in the controversial election widely known as the “night-time vote,” the Jatiya Party obtained 22 seats. In the 2024 election, the party won 11 seats with around 3 per cent of the vote.

After many years, the people of the country got the opportunity to vote freely in the 13th parliamentary election held on 12 February, 2026. In that election, the Jatiya Party failed to win a single seat. In regions such as Rangpur, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, and Nilphamari—areas where the party had long maintained strong positions—that foundation also collapsed.

Splits are not new in Jatiya Party politics. In 1996, a faction led by Anwar Hossain Manju broke away to form Jatiya Party–JP. In 2000, Bangladesh Jatiya Party–BJP was formed under the leadership of Naziur Rahman Manzur, once a minister under Ershad. Since then, leaders and activists have repeatedly left the Jatiya Party to form new parties or separate factions.

Even before the latest 13th parliamentary election, the party again experienced a major split. Leaders such as Anisul Islam Mahmud, Mujibul Haque Chunnu, Ruhul Amin Hawlader, and Kazi Firoz Rashid announced a separate Jatiya Party. Former Jatiya Party leaders also formed an alliance called the National Democratic Front (NDF). However, due to disputes over election symbols, they could not participate in the election. These developments further exposed the party’s organisational weakness. Cases are still ongoing over which faction will retain the “plough” symbol.

This division at the top level of the party has created confusion among activists and supporters and weakened the organization further. Many political analysts believe this continuity of leadership crisis and fragmentation deepened the party’s electoral collapse.

H M Ershad died in 2019. Even during his lifetime, there had been tension between Rowshan Ershad and GM Quader over leadership of the party. Ershad used to run the party by balancing relations between his wife Rowshan Ershad and his younger brother GM Quader. But after his death, that coordination disappeared. Although Rowshan Ershad is ill, another faction of the Jatiya Party still exists under her leadership. In the 2024 election, however, the Awami League embraced GM Quader as the main leader of the Jatiya Party, pushing Rowshan largely into the background.

Apart from current chairman GM Quader, the main Jatiya Party has no nationally recognised leader. The party’s second most important figure, Secretary General Shamim Haider Patwary, himself failed to win the Gaibandha-1 constituency. He received close to 34,000 votes there, while the winning Jamaat-e-Islami candidate, Md Majedur Rahman, secured 140,726 votes. BNP candidate Khandakar Ziaul Islam Mohammad Ali came second with 37,997 votes.

There appears little possibility that leaders who left the party before the last election will return under GM Quader’s leadership. As a result, political analysts do not believe that even if the court awards the “plough” symbol to GM Quader’s faction, they will be able to exert meaningful influence in future politics.

The party’s former secretary general and current executive chairman of the new Jatiya Party, Mujibul Haque Chunnu, told Prothom Alo that there is no possibility of the Jatiya Party recovering under G M Quader’s leadership.

Mujibul Haque Chunnu acknowledged that had the Jatiya Party not become part of the Awami League’s misrule, it would not have fallen into today’s crisis. He claimed the party could have become stronger had it remained a genuine opposition force. He also said efforts are underway to unite all factions and strengthen the party.

After the July uprising, the Jatiya Party’s central office in Kakrail was vandalised and set on fire several times. At the same time, some parties—including the National Citizen Party (NCP) and Jamaat-e-Islami—demanded a ban on the Jatiya Party. Multiple cases have been filed against party chairman GM Quader and other leaders. Some former MPs and leaders have also been arrested. These developments further weakened the party’s political standing.

After the interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus took office, it held a series of meetings with political parties. But no faction of the Jatiya Party was invited. The National Consensus Commission, which held discussions with 30 political parties regarding reforms under the July Charter, also excluded the Jatiya Party. Ahead of the election, the party’s media coverage also lost importance compared to the past.

Burdened by its long political relationship with the Awami League, organisational fragmentation, leadership crises, and erosion of its vote bank, the Jatiya Party now faces an existential crisis. Whether the party can once again become relevant in electoral politics remains the central question.