AL and BNP under pressure despite outward show of strength

Awami League and BNP are both forging ahead with a display of their strength. But despite this outward show of strength, the leaders of both parties are concerned. Both the parties are under considerable pressure.

With the national parliament election ahead, BNP has concerns about its very existence. And Awami League has worries of being victim of vengeance. This was revealed in conversations  with six senior leaders of both parties.

If both sides continue in their efforts to win in the test of strength, the crisis will deepen further. Both parties feel that relenting to the slightest extent will imply defeat. Under the circumstances, Awami League, having been 15 years in power at a stretch, is worried about falling victim to vengeance. On the other hand, having been out of power for 17 years, BNP is concerned about its existence. This situation has kept both parties under considerable pressure.

The ruling Awami League is having to face two situations. On one hand, the western countries including the US are continuing in their activities to ensure an inclusive election. And on the other hand, the opposition is waging a movement. Awami League is having to tackle both these challenges, while also taking political and administrative preparation to hold the election by any cost under their government and in keeping with the constitution.

Awami League presidium member and agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque, speaking to Prothom Alo, said they are prepared to tackle any situation and hold the election in accordance to the constitution. He also said that having stayed in power for a long stretch, all sorts of expectations crop up. And then there is the global economic crisis as well. However, Awami League will go ahead, tackling all pressure and challenges.

Meanwhile, BNP is anxious over whether it will be successful in attaining its objective. There is the pressure of thousands of leaders and activists of the party all over the country facing lawsuits and awaiting the outcome of the movement. BNP claims that there are politically motivated cases against 4.3 million of their leaders and activists. Despite these adverse circumstances, the party is determined not to participate in elections under the present government and is planning to take its movement to the final stages.

BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, speaking to Prothom Alo, said that there is no alterative now but to take the movement to its culmination. The people will not accept the government's effort to hold a one-sided election. The government's stubborn stance is leading to an uncertain situation.

In the meantime, political analysts feel that the antipodal stance of the two parties and their efforts to display their power on the streets, is diminishing the change for any sort of understanding. They feel that such inflexible mindset is exacerbating the political uncertainty.

Professor Ali Riaz of the Illinois State University in the US told Prothom Alo that neither side is in a position to relent as they both fear a crisis of their existence.

BNP has been in an anti-government movement for over a year now, starting in July last year. It has been challenging for BNP to carrying on a street movement for so long, with innumerable leaders and activists of the party, from the centre to the grassroots, facing all sorts of cases. The top leadership of the party feels that the government will now crack down harder on BNP. This has been made even clearer in recent statements made by senior officials of the police and the administration. Keeping this in mind, the party is having to plan the final phases of its movement accordingly, said several senior leaders of BNP.

The ruling party's determination to hold the election by any means is also being felt as a pressure by BNP leaders. They feel that if it is possible for the government to hold a one-sided election, then the government will come down harder on BNP than ever before. BNP's very existence will be threatened them and repression of its leaders and activists around the country will increase manifold.

A leader of the policymaking level in BNP, speaking to Prothom Alo, said that given the government's behaviour and the pressure from leaders and activists of various levels within the party itself, it has become imperative to take the movement to its final phase. They feel that the US visa policy, as well as other initiatives of the West, is assisting them in their movement.

BNP wants to take its movement to fruition as there is no scope to turn back now. Today, 18 October (Wednesday) is the last programme of the present phase of the party's movement. It plans to take up hard-hitting programme from the end of this month. BNP leaders say that they will remain in the streets no matter how difficult the situation may turn. There is no way that they will join any election under the present government. Unless the government makes an announcement to this end, they will not join in any dialogue with the government either.

Awami League's target is to hold the 12th national parliament election at any cost and form the government for the fourth consecutive time. The party policymakers are not taking any other alternative into consideration. They feel that if they cannot thwart BNP's movement and hold the election in time, the consequences won't be pleasant for them.

Many of Awami League leaders feel that it will not be that easy to achieve their objective this time. Some of them are even apprehensive about the situation. They feel that BNP and the rest of the opposition will test their strength every day till the election. And fresh sanctions for the West may also loom up.

Sources in Awami League say that there had been the pressure from BNP and Jamaat in the 2014 elections, but no significant pressure from international quarters. And the Awami League government had only been five years in power at the time. This time they are heading towards the election with the achievements and failures of 15 continuous years of incumbency. That is why Awami League is facing its toughest test to carry out the election this time.

A central leader of the party, on condition of anonymity, told Prothom Alo that Awami League had undoubtedly crossed its best years. Now crises and problems will mount. They must keep this in mind as they go ahead. There is no scope to turn back.

Awami League policymakers want to convince the party leaders that the US had failed in applying its visa policy. They say that they have failed in such endeavours in other countries too. The leaders repeat such contentions in their speeches and contentions. They want to say there is no need to worry about the visa policy. This is a strategy to keep up the morale of the party activists as well as the administration and law and order forces.

However, certain leaders of Awami League feel that if fresh restrictions are imposed by the US before the election, it will be hard to dismiss these so easily. That is why they are trying to keep control of the streets by means of programmes to counter the programmes of the opposition. They have to prepare for the election at the same time.

No matter what situation may emerge, Awami League is unwilling to relent even an inch regarding the opposition demands. They refuse to enter into any dialogue or discussion regarding the election process outside of the constitution.

Many political analysts feel that if the five recommendations made by the US pre-election assessment mission that had visited Dhaka, including meaningful dialogue, are taken into consideration, then both sides can save face. Unless there is a peaceful resolution to the problem, the crisis will deepen further.

Distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, Raunaq Jahan, told Prothom Alo, "Dialogue or discussion is required for a peaceful solution. But there is no precedence in our country of big problems being resolved through dialogue. That doesn't mean that it will not be possible to reach a resolution through dialogue. Time will tell whether this will be possible."