Awami League’s contenders in the election are itself and its allies

The 12^th Jatiya Sangsad election is to take place tomorrow, Sunday. Awami League is the major party in this election. Along with Awami League, the party’s independent candidates are the main contenders. Outside of this are the partners of the ruling party-led alliance, allies, and certain close parties. Then there are a few leaders who have broken away from BNP and candidates of a few “king’s parties”. Almost all of them have joined the election having received assurances of cooperation from Awami League and various quarters associated with the government.

The latest situation of the election makes it clear that the  parliament to be formed after the 7 January voting will largely comprise Awami League leaders and the party’s supporters. The rest are also coming from among those known to be close to Awami League and the government. In order words, it is apparent that the coming parliament will be limited to the supporters of one party.

Of the 28 parties including Awami League, 266 of the candidates are nominated by Awami League. Outside of that, there are another 269 candidates associated with Awami League politics. Awami League has conceded 26 seats to the present main opposition in parliament Jatiya Party (JaPa). Awami League has withdrawn its candidates from these seats.

Partners of the 14 party alliance have been given six seats on the basis of understanding. This include three for Jasod, two for Workers Party, and one for Jatiya Party (JP). They are contesting in the election with the Awami League ‘boat’ symbol.   

Trinomool BNP, BNM and Supreme Party, the parties known as “king’s parties” which got  registration before the election, as well as a number of leaders breaking away from BNP, are contesting in the election. Also 16 leaders loyal to Jatiya Party’s chief patron Raushan Ershad, not gaining party nomination, are contesting as independent candidates. It has been learnt that certain quarters close to the government are active in the field in an effort to ensure the victory of at least 15 candidates including those from the king’s parties, BNP deserters and from the Raushan camp. Already Awami League’s local leaders and important persons have starting campaigning for them.

Awami League sources say, those from the party who are now independent candidates, are almost all holding posts of central Awami League, the party’s sub-committees or some position at the grassroots. Some are leaders of pro-Awami League professional groups and businessmen. Their activists, supporters and patrons in the election arena are also Awami League leaders and activists. In fact, central leaders, members of the cabinet and members of parliament are also working in favour of several independent candidates.

At a press briefing yesterday, Friday, when Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader was asked by the foreign press about BNP terming this election as one-sided, he replied that it is not a one-sided election, but is facing a one-sided opposition.

At the press briefing held at Awami League’s office in Tejgaon of the capital, Obaidul Quader said, “This will be a good election. If the major opposition BNP took part, the election would be more competitive. But even without BNP, it will still be competitive.”          

BNP and several other parties are boycotting this election. It had been assumed at the outset that Awami League would win in most of the seats. However, the ‘boat’ is likely to face stiff competition from Awami League’s independent candidates in around 100 seats. This analysis of Awami League hasn’t changed much even a day before the election.

Several sources from among Awami League’s policymakers say that the boat’s main contender in a least 70 seats will be Awami League’s independent candidates. In the other 30 seats, the competition will be from JaPa, partners of the 14 party alliance, BNP deserters, “king’ party” candidates and JaPa leaders of the Raushan camp who were not given party nomination. Awami League doesn’t have any significant challenge in the other 200 seats. Awami League is worried that the voter turnout may be poor in the constituencies where the contest is low. These include seats in the capital Dhaka and in other big cities.

Awami League’s assessment is that the party’s independent candidates may win more than 50 seats.

Analysis by Awami League and other quarters indicate that in the 26 seats conceded to JaPa, the JaPa candidates may be in the frontline of the contest in 15 or so seats. While the 14 party alliance has been conceded 6 seats, it is doubtful if they will be able to bag so many. And the quarters close to the government will endeavour to ensure that 10 candidates win from about the 15 seats left to the king’s parties and BNP deserters. In other words, a total of 75 seats may be bagged by Awami League’s independent candidates, JaPa, pro-Raushan candidates, 14 party allies, and candidates who have left BNP. The ‘boat’ candidates are likely to win in over 200 seats. However, several important Awami League leaders, members of the cabinet and many of those who have won several times, now are at risk due to the independent candidates. These include some from Pirojpur, Sylhet, Gazipur, Savar, Natore and Rajshahi.

Awami League leadership is not worried about this. This time their main concern is to create competition and increase the voter turnout. The independent candidates are their hope in this connection. Under the circumstances, Awami League does not feel it will be a big loss if a number of important leaders and ministers lose in the election. In fact, they can use this to promote their narrative of a credible election.

Some of Awami League’s strategies to increase voter turnout and to show a semblance of competition, is creating complications in the election arena. The ‘independent strategy’ hassled to clashes and conflict almost every day. There has been violence in several areas. At least three have died.

Awami League’s allies and partners are not comfortable with the ruling party’s independent candidates. While Awami League may have given them concessions, the party’s leaders are independent candidates in many of these seats. Given this situation, the top leader of a certain party of the 14 party alliance is repeatedly sending SMS messages to Awami League’s top leadership for help, according to Awami League and alliance sources.

It has also been heard that the second top leader of any ally had been contacting BNP for help.

JaPa sources say that may of their leaders are at risk too. It is basically the Awami League independents that have posed as a challenge to them.

It is a different scenario where independent candidates who have left BNP, king’s party leaders, and pro-Raushan candidates are concerned. It is the Awami League candidates and the independents who are under pressure in their seats.

This includes Kishoreganj-2 where Major (retd) Akhteruzzaman, who was expelled from BNP, is contesting. Local Awami League leaders and activists are backing him. Former IGP and incumbent MP Nur Mohammad was not nominated there by Awami League this time. Instead, the nomination went to former police official Abdul Kahar Akanda. He was the investigating officer of the Bangabandhu killing case and the 2009 Pilkhana killing case.

Awami League former MP Sohrab Uddin is contesting as an independent candidate from the same seat. The ‘boat’ candidate and the independent candidate are both complaining that a certain quarter is putting pressure on the local Awami League men to work in favour of Akhteruzzaman.

In Cox’s Bazar-1, Awami League’s party candidate Salah Uddin Ahmed was dropped as he was a loan defaulter. The incumbent MP Zafar Alam was the independent candidate and so the party men supported him. But now the party leaders and activists are being compelled to campaign in favour of Kalyan Party chairman Maj. Gen. (retd) Syed Muhammad Ibrahim. In fact, it s alleged that some of Zafar Alam’s workers have had to leave the area.

There are also allegations that a large section of Awami League men are being forced to lend support to the Trinomool BNP candidate in a Sylhet seat, even though the Awami League candidate there has been MP four times over.

A religious leader is contesting as independent candidate in another seat of Sylhet. Awami League leaders and activists are being used to work in his favour, it is alleged.

Speaking about the election, Awami League joint general secretary Mahbub Ul Alam Hanif told Prothom Alo, in many countries the election is among two or three parties. Over there 28 parties are contesting. Awami League is not taking into consideration who is boycotting the election and who are joining it. It is giving importance to ensuing that the voters can come and vote spontaneously.