Awami League looks to its grassroots for a comeback

Awami League, having lost power due to a mass uprising, is making efforts to regain its foothold in Bangladesh's political landscape.

In this quest for revival, the party, whose activities are now banned, is attempting to reactivate grassroots leaders organisationally, carry out sporadic street programmes, and intensify online campaigns questioning the 2024 uprising and the government.

However, the Awami League has not yet adapted to the political realities or engaged in self-criticism over past mistakes.

After being ousted in a student-people's uprising on 5 August 2024, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina fled to India, where she remains. She has already been sentenced to death in a war crimes trial.

Since taking asylum in India, Sheikh Hasina has maintained regular online communication with party leaders and activists at home and abroad, even if indirectly. She has held virtual meetings with leaders from districts, sub-districts, and various affiliate organisations, providing them with various guidelines.

For the first time last month, Sheikh Hasina announced that she would return to the country in December and face trial. At the same time, she called for other leaders in hiding to return as well.

According to party sources, this announcement of her possible return is prompting various activities at the grassroots to organise the party. Key focuses include announcing new committees and redistributing responsibilities at various levels.

After being ousted, Awami League essentially had two paths: one was to explore why such a situation arose and pursue organisational and political reforms, and the other was to keep the organisational network intact by largely preserving the previous structure and waiting for favourable political opportunities. So far, the party's actions seem to reflect more of the latter path.

The term of the party’s central committee ended last December. Discussions regarding bringing new leadership to the forefront and organisational reforms were ongoing after the ouster. However, there are no visible initiatives on this front anymore. The emphasis, according to senior leaders, is on forming new committees at the grassroots, strengthening online communication, and keeping field-level workers active while keeping the central leadership unchanged.

At least 17 districts have reported news of new committee formations or redistribution of responsibilities at the sub-district, police station, union, and ward levels. In some places, old committees have been dissolved to form convener committees, while in others, leadership is provided under the designation of ‘coordinator’ or ‘responsible.’ Most of these committees have been approved or announced virtually or online.

The question is, why the strategy of reorganising the grassroots while keeping the central leadership unchanged? Usually, when a political party faces a significant setback, it changes its central leadership and policies.

However, Awami League has been taking the opposite approach so far.
Why new committees at the grassroots?

According to Awami League sources, it is impossible to organise a central conference in the country unless the ban on the party's activities is lifted.

Organising the conference from abroad is not feasible either. However, to maintain the organisational network even without the prospect of a central conference, committee restructuring and redistribution of responsibilities are underway at the grassroots level, especially at the thana, union, and ward levels.

In early July, the Mohammadpur, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Adabor, and Kafrul police station convener committees, under Dhaka City North Awami League, were announced. Beyond that, committees have been established in 23 wards in the north.

On 17 July, the committee for Government Titumir College’s Chhatra League was announced online for one year. On 12 July, the old committee of Pabna district’s Chhatra League was dissolved and a new committee was announced for three months. Sirajganj district’s Chhatra League committee was announced in May. Recently, the Swechhasebak League also announced committees at various units and district levels in Dhaka City South.

Awami League leaders claim that committees have been announced in various sub-districts or unions of at least 17 districts across the country.

Some old committees have been dissolved to make room for new faces.

Compared to the district or city levels, there has been more redistribution of responsibilities at the union, ward, and sub-district levels.

In many cases, instead of officially announcing a committee, designations like ‘responsible’ or ‘coordinator’ have been given. The tenure of some committees has been set at three months or one year.

According to Awami League leaders, four main considerations are taken into account when selecting leaders for new committees. First, those who have been active in organisational activities after being released on bail from jail. Second, party members who can remain in the area due to familial or friendly ties with local BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami leaders. Third, influential persons in the area. Fourth, some leaders, whether imprisoned or abroad, are included in the committees based on their ability to provide financial support.

Awami League sources say that the capability to carry out flash processions, activity in online campaigns, and regular participation in virtual communications are now essential criteria for the organisational evaluation of leaders and activists. Although some new faces have emerged in grassroots committees, there is little indication of a shift in the party’s political outlook and culture.

According to party sources, Sheikh Hasina has instructed leaders that new committees must be formed with those who remain active during the party's difficult times. This means individuals who participate in flash processions separately in the country and demonstrate activity online by connecting with Sheikh Hasina are given more importance in leadership selection.

Another major change in the Awami League’s organisational structure is in communication. Many relatively less known grassroots leaders have established direct contact with Sheikh Hasina through platforms like Telegram, among others. Former ministers, members of parliament, and central leaders have also joined these platforms.

According to party sources, this has resulted in the weakening of the traditional organisational hierarchy and leadership stages. Some who were previously outside the decision-making process now have the opportunity to communicate directly with the top leadership. While some new faces have emerged as a result, unrest has developed within the party as many are able to increase their influence without following established organisational steps.

An Awami League leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Prothom Alo that now lesser-known leaders at the thana and union levels can connect with Sheikh Hasina online. As a result, in many cases, they do not want to give importance to the leaders at the district, metropolitan, or central levels.

Party sources indicate that alongside Sheikh Hasina, influential leaders like Jahangir Kabir Nanak, Mofazzal Hossain Chowdhury Maya, AFM Bahauddin Nasim, and Mirza Azam, who are known as supporters of the party's tough stance, have a greater influence in grassroots committee formation and responsibility redistribution.

Multiple responsible Awami League leaders told Prothom Alo on the condition of anonymity that the party's current strategy is mainly focused on survival, maintaining the organisational network, and waiting for a favourable political situation.

According to them, Sheikh Hasina’s announcement to return in December is also being used as a strategy to invigorate grassroots leaders and activists.

Party sources claim that over three hundred individuals, including former ministers, state ministers, and members of parliament associated with the Awami League government, are in prison.

Some members of the party's advisory council have been arrested. Many former representatives of local governments supported by the Awami League are in hiding, and some are also in prison. A large portion of important leaders are staying outside the country. Many of them face lawsuits, and legal proceedings are ongoing for some.

Given these circumstances, there remains a question of how much the Awami League can regain its footing based solely on forming some grassroots committees, sporadic flash processions, and online campaigns.

It is also unclear how effective this strategy of grassroots reconstruction, while keeping the central leadership unchanged, will be.

Similarly, the long-term organisational capability is questioned if loyalty and activity become the main criteria for leadership selection. The biggest question remains whether the party can regain public trust without self-criticism of past actions and political or organisational reform, merely through committee reshuffling, and this remains unclear to many Awami League leaders.

Thus, the current reconstruction of the Awami League, spanning over seven decades, appears more as a strategy to keep the organisation operational rather than a change in political philosophy.

Even if this strategy helps maintain its existence, to effectively return to the political stage, the party will eventually have to face tough questions regarding past politics and the causes behind the 2024 mass uprising. How the party responds to such questions will largely determine the future of the Awami League in Bangladesh.