“There will be a stiff contest between the ‘boat’ and the independent candidates”
The political arena is heated in the lead-up to the 7 January election. On one hand Awami League, Jatiya Party and several other parties are busy campaigning. One the other, BNP and like-minded parties have called for a non-cooperation movement against the government and the election. In the meantime there have been incidents of sabotage. Former vice chancellor of the National University, political scientist Dr Harun-Or-Rashid talks to Prothom Alo’s Sohrab Hassan and Sheikh Sabiha Alam about the overall political situation in the country.
How do you see the election environment? There are no visible election activities in Dhaka city.
The election environment is fine. Camps of the candidates are being set up in the various localities. The city is plastered with posters. Every evening the party activists are out with processions. There are still 14 days left for the election. As there are not many independent candidates in Dhaka city, there is not that much campaigning either. Outside Dhaka, the election campaign is on in full swing.
BNP isn’t there, so who will contest against whom in this election?
BNP made a mistake in not joining this election. They could have used this election to voice their demands before the people. In BNP’s absence, the competition will be between Awami League-nominated candidates, that is ‘boat’ candidates, and independent candidates. Then there will be contest with Jatiya Party, Trinomool and some other parties in certain places. But naturally it won’t be the same competition as it would be if BNP was in the field.
Has BNP not joined the election, or was it prevented from joining the election? After 28 October, 20,000 activists and leaders of BNP were arrested. They wouldn’t have been able to join the election even if they had wanted to.
BNP has been in the one-point movement from beforehand. BNP has said that if would not join the election unless Sheikh Hasina resigns. That means they want to be assured of victory. After 28 October, they carried out sabotage in the name of hartal (strikes) and blockades. They set fire to trains, killing mother and child. Violence and democratic politics cannot go hand in hand. BNP must adhere to democratic politics first.
Ruling party leaders and police officials blamed BNP for the acts of sabotage even before any investigations. There must be an impartial and credible investigation to identify those responsible for the violence.
The government is endeavouring to do so. BNP men have been arrested in the incident of the railway lines being severed in Gazipur.
BNP has called upon the people to reject the one-sided election and has also called for a non-cooperation movement. How do you view this matter?
BNP’s call for a non-cooperation movement is a reflection of their political bankruptcy. Their movement is not just against Awami League, but also a hit at the existence of independent Bangladesh. The people do not support this movement. It was bound to fail. BNP has said, as part of the non-cooperation movement, not to pay power, gas and water bills. Anyone with a minimum love for the country and for the people, cannot come up with such a programme. If the people had any support for BNP’s one-point demand, they could have been a mass uprising.
The general people are scared about this confrontational stance between the two sides. Will they go to vote?
I see nothing to be scared about. BNP carried out arson in 2013, 2014 and 2015 too. The people did not respond to their call. They will not do so this time either.
The independent candidates who are contesting against the candidates nominated by Awami League, themselves are Awami League leaders too. What narrative will they take to the people?
They will point out any lapses in development in their areas. They will point out if the ‘boat’ candidate has amassed wealth. They will hold up their plans before the people. I feel there will be a stiff contest between the boat and the independent candidates on the 7 January election.
The independent candidates may clinch over 30 seats. It would not be surprising if several boat candidates are defeated by the independents. Jatiya Party will come up third.
Given the manner in which the 7 January election is about to be held, do you think the crisis will clear?
A new parliament will be formed after the election. The government will be able to run the country well. There will be no problem. The friendly countries will also want to see democratic continuity in Bangladesh. They do not want hartals, blockades or sabotage either.
But if the election is held without the participation of a major political party of the country, that will not reflect public mandate, many feel. Will this not exacerbate the crisis?
Bangladesh’s political crisis is ideological. Bangladesh’s two major political parties are of two camps. Awami League is with the pro-liberation forces and BNP is moving with the anti-independence forces. This divide will remain for many more days to come.
BNP does not want to contest in elections under the Awami League government. In 1996, Awami League did not contest in the election under BNP. They launched a movement and established the caretaker government. So why do they view BNP’s demand negatively now?
It was BNP that destroyed the caretaker government system. They raised the age limit of justices. They made Iajuddin the head of the caretaker government. That is why the election could not be held on 22 January 2007.
After the one-sided election in 2014, you told Prothom Alo in an interview that rather than stay in power for five years, the government should hold mid-term elections. Will you say the same now?
No, I will not say so. The political context has changed. BNP may not have come to the election, but many other parties have. So it is not a one-sided election.
How do you foresee the voter turnout in the 7 January election, with BNP?
Even without BNP, the election will be competitive. If there is a 40 to 50 per cent voter turnout, that will be an inclusive election. Even in the election in 1991 under the Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed government, there was a 55 per cent turnout.
Thank you.
Thank you too.