Can the new political reality break the Teesta River deadlock?

For nearly four decades, Bangladesh and India have remained at loggerheads over the management of shared water resources. By controlling the upstream reaches of 54 transboundary rivers that originate in India and flow into Bangladesh, New Delhi enjoys a significant strategic advantage in regulating the flow of these rivers.

India enjoys greater leverage in negotiations over the Teesta and Ganges rivers due to its upstream position. It has increasingly used its control over shared water resources as a strategic instrument. A substantial portion of the Teesta's water is currently utilized within India. Moreover, more than 20 large dams and hydroelectric power projects have been constructed along the river, the vast majority of which are located in Indian territory. Approximately two-thirds of the Teesta River lies within India, while the remaining one-third flows through Bangladesh.

However, tensions over the Teesta River have intensified in recent years. China's proposal to invest in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project has added a new geopolitical dimension to the dispute. For Bangladesh, accepting Chinese investment presents a strategic dilemma, as India views China's expanding presence in South Asia with considerable suspicion. Consequently, Dhaka must carefully balance its development needs with its foreign policy priorities. At the same time, many analysts argue that Bangladesh should avoid excessive dependence on any single external power and instead pursue a foreign policy that safeguards its national interests while maintaining constructive relations with both India and China.

The Teesta River dispute extends far beyond water sharing. It has significant implications for Bangladesh–India relations, regional cooperation, food security, agricultural productivity, and the livelihoods of millions who depend on the river.

Teesta originates in the Eastern Himalayas and flows through the Indian state of Sikkim and West Bengal before entering Bangladesh’s Rangpur Division, ultimately draining into the Bay of Bengal. The river is approximately 414 km long in total, of which about 151 km flows through Sikkim, around 283 km through West Bengal, and roughly 121 km through Bangladesh.

The India–Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) was established in 1972, following initial discussions in the 1950s and 1960s.

A provisional understanding reached in 1983 reportedly allocated 39 per cent of Teesta waters to India and 36 per cent to Bangladesh, while 25 per cent remained unallocated. Bangladesh, however, has at times sought up to 50 per cent of the flow. The arrangement was never fully implemented.

According to the West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, set an important precedent for water-sharing cooperation In 1996 The Ganges Water Treaty. However, the Teesta issue remained unresolved. Between 1997 and 2005, several joint technical committees failed to reach a consensus, particularly regarding dry-season water availability.

A draft agreement proposed in 2011 suggested allocating 42.5 per cent of Teesta waters to India and 37.5 per cent to Bangladesh. However, it was not finalized, reportedly due to objections from the West Bengal state government, which cited concerns over state-level water security. As a result, negotiations have since remained stalled.

India has been unilaterally withdrawing water from the Teesta since 2011. The West Bengal government even took the initiative to dig two more canals upstream in 2023 to divert water, disregarding international norms regarding shared rivers.

According to The Government of West Bengal, particularly Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, has at various times expressed reservations regarding the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. She has argued that the water flow in the Teesta basin has declined significantly due to climate change, including glacial retreat and changing rainfall patterns. According to this position, releasing additional water to Bangladesh during the dry season could adversely affect irrigation in northern West Bengal and impact local farmers.

The state government has also pointed out that agricultural expansion in Bangladesh following the commissioning of the Teesta Barrage in 1998 has increased water demand downstream, which, in its view, complicates additional water allocation.

Furthermore, West Bengal has ongoing irrigation and hydropower development plans in the Teesta basin, including projects intended to generate approximately 67.6 megawatts of electricity and provide irrigation coverage for about 922,000 hectares of land. Officials argue that any significant increase in downstream allocation could affect these planned developments and water availability within the state.

In recent years, Bangladesh has expressed concern over reduced dry-season flows, while discussions on upstream water use and diversion projects in India have continued at the subnational level. The issue remains sensitive and unresolved within the broader framework of bilateral river water cooperation.

The Teesta River is a crucial transboundary river for Bangladesh,  as it is closely linked to agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods. Its importance is particularly significant, with estimates suggesting that it contributes to the irrigation of around 14 per cent of the country’s arable land, while the livelihoods of approximately 7.3 per cent of the population are directly or indirectly dependent on it.

According to Bangladesh’s position, a substantial portion of Teesta waters is utilized upstream in India, and during the dry season the flow entering Bangladesh is significantly reduced. As a result, Bangladesh has consistently sought a fair and equitable share of the river’s dry-season flow, often cited as around 50 per cent, particularly between December and May when water levels decline sharply.

Due to India's excessive water withdrawal, about 100,000 hectares of land in the Rangpur region is not suitable for winter crop cultivation, which has a major impact on agricultural production.

Millions of people across five northern districts—Rangpur, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Kurigram, and Gaibandha—depend on the Teesta River for irrigation, fishing, and seasonal employment. 750,000 hectares of land in Bangladesh depend on Teesta water for irrigation. Approximately 70 per cent of the population depends on agriculture, and the region contributes about 14 per cent of the country’s cultivable land. The Teesta Barrage Project in Bangladesh requires at least 4,500 cusecs of water during the dry season to effectively serve the region. However, recent reports suggest that the actual flow has dropped to around 400 cusecs.

In 1997, the Teesta River carried around 6,500 cusecs of water, which declined to approximately 1,348 cusecs by 2006, and further dropped to between 700 and 300 cusecs in the following decade. The Gazoldoba Barrage in West Bengal is reported to regulate and divert a significant portion of the river’s flow before it enters Bangladesh.

This deficit is not confined to official records. Water insecurity is visible in dried-up canals, empty fishing nets, and the fragile finances of char-area households, many of whom take loans against crops that may never be harvested.

The area faces severe seasonal extremes. During the monsoon, around 750,000 hectares of land are affected by flooding, while in the dry season (December to May), river flows can decline to as low as 300 cusecs. This seasonal scarcity contributes to reduced soil moisture, drying of croplands, and a reported annual decline in groundwater levels of about two feet in some areas.

These conditions exacerbate socio-economic vulnerability. According to World Bank estimates, around 40 per cent of households in the region live below the poverty line. Studies also suggest that improved irrigation could increase agricultural productivity by up to 25 per cent. In addition, the development of irrigation, transport, and industrial infrastructure linked to the basin could potentially generate employment opportunities for tens of thousands of people.

According to The Indian Constitution has given the power to enter into all kinds of communication and agreements with foreign countries to the Union Ministry of External Affairs. As a result, the central government can sign the agreement without the states. But it has political risks. And that is why neither the BJP nor the previous Congress government signed the Teesta Agreement.

Following the West Bengal elections in May 2026, a new state government took office after the change in leadership. With the transition, political constraints surrounding the Teesta water-sharing negotiations are widely seen as having shifted. However, analysts note that institutional and technical challenges in reaching a comprehensive agreement remain largely unchanged.

In this context, some observers argue that the removal of political obstacles should not be mistaken for an immediate restoration of normal river flows. While diplomatic space may have expanded, the physical reality of the Teesta has not significantly changed. A procedural breakthrough, they suggest, does not automatically translate into increased water availability downstream.

* Farzana Afroz is Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations,  Jahangirnagar University

* Tania Khatun is a student of Department of International Relations,

Jahangirnagar University

 * The views expressed here are the authors' own.