Saint Martin's and the Rohingya situation: What we are to do

On the excuse of alleged attacks by ARSA on a number of security check posts in 2017, the Myanmar Army unleashed genocide on the Rohingya population in the Rakhine state. Over one million Rohingya fled into Bangladesh for shelter. Talks at various levels have been held with Myanmar for their repatriation. An agreement to this end was even signed. China, at one point of time, also entered the scene as an intermediary. But there have been no tangible results.

When the Myanmar army took over power there in 2021, the anti-junta National Unity Government led by the party of the imprisoned leader Aung San Suu Kyi was formed and civil war commenced. Visible defeat of the Myanmar army became evident last October with the onset of Operation-1027 in the Shan state. In continuation of this, the Arakan Army has ousted the Myanmar army from Buthidaung in Arakan and taken control of the town. The Arakan Army is one of the strongest non-state actors in the civil war. The fall of Maungdaw is also just a matter of time now. Both these important towns lie on the border with Bangladesh and are populated by Rohingya.

Alarm prevailed in Bangladesh settlements this side of the river Naf, with deafening sounds of gunfire and explosions rending the air as the civil war between the Arakan Army and the military troops raged. On 5 June there was firing from Myanmar on a vessel carrying election material and officials from Saint Martin's Island. The trawler was damaged but there were no casualties. After that there was also firing on a cargo trawler.

These cannot be dismissed as stray fire from the ongoing conflict. It seems also certain that the firing was aimed directly at the Bangladesh vessels. Since then the transport of goods and passengers from Teknaf to Saint Martin's Island came to a halt. With apprehensions of a food shortage on the island, the government arranged for a ship to carry food products by sea to the island.

There remains uncertainty as to whether it is the Myanmar army or the Arakan Army that is opening fire. However, a picture was published of a Myanmar warship in Naf river waters. No matter whoever is responsible for this firing, the fact remains that communication between Saint Martin's and the mainland was halted for 10 days. No immediate measures were taken at the time.

Speculations ran rife on social media that Bangladesh was losing control over Saint Martin's. Finally on 15 June the Myanmar ship moved away and some of our naval ships also patrolled the maritime boundary. Had this been done a week earlier, things wouldn't have gone so far and the other side would feel that Bangladesh places importance on its sovereignty and the security of its citizens.

In the meantime, two more significant incidents took place. The first is that the homes of Rohingya in Buthidaung and Maungdaw were set of fire. The Arakan Army and the Myanmar army blame each other for this. But it is most likely that the Arakan Army carried out this misdeed.

The second incident is that quite a large number of Rohingya youth left the camps in Bangladesh and joined the Myanmar army, according to reliable sources. It is alleged that this was done with the backing of the Bangladesh government. If that is true, we will have to pay for this wrong decision in future. In the meantime, ARSA and RSO are fighting on behalf of the Myanmar army against the Arakan Army, it is alleged. As it is, the Arakan Army was never Rohingya-friendly. This hatred will be fuelled further by some Rohingya fighting against them on behalf of the Myanmar army. It is quite possible that this is why their homes were set on fire.

Amid the civil war in Myanmar, Bangladesh's main aim is to repatriate the Rohingya refugees to their homeland. There is very little possibility of the Myanmar army being gaining absolute victory and taking back things to how they were. But it seems like Bangladesh has taken the big risk of putting all its eggs in one basket.

It can be said that even if the military junta remains in power, in future the Arakan Army will have the most important position in the Rakhine state. So in the post-civil war circumstances, no matter what agreement Bangladesh may sign with the Myanmar central government, it will not be possible to send back the Rohingya without the cooperation of the Arakan Army. That is why it is imperative in Bangladesh's interests to have functional communication and meaningful relations with the Arakan Army. It is true that the Bangladesh government cannot have official ties with a non-state actor. However, at the same time it is also true that there is precedence of a government not only to have informal contact with an armed organisation, but even proffer financial and military support if necessary. In Bangladesh's long term interests, it is imperative to immediately set up unofficial communication with the Arakan Army, if they have not already done so.

Then again, before it takes any decision, Bangladesh has to think ten times as to how India and China will react. China is the mainstay of the Myanmar military junta, but it also has good relations with the Arakan Army. And India all along has condones the misdeeds of the junta.

India did not have good relations with the Arakan Army. But after the Arakan Army took control of Paletwa in the Chin state and is making steady progress, India too set up communications with the Arakan Army and is making an effort to build up effective ties. Both the countries are doing all this in their own interests. Under such circumstances if Bangladesh sets up relations with the Arakan Army in its own interests, surely India of China can have no grievances in this regard.

* Md Touhid Hossain is a former foreign secretary

* This column appeared in the print an online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir