I do not foresee any major changes in US-Bangladesh relations

The US presidential election was held at a juncture where the Democrat candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate Donald Trump projected contrasting visions. Harris's vision focused on achieving inclusive goals in alignment with the evolving global economy.

In contrast, Trump's vision was centered on distancing the United States from the outside world by upholding the principle of "America First." His approach was more inward-looking, aimed at restoring the American image during his tenure. Trump's platform exuded power and strength. Polls showed that a majority of the American public supported Trump's vision over Harris's inclusive goals.

With Donald Trump as president, the United States is poised to step away from leadership on climate change. He aims to strengthen the fossil fuel economy and revitalise US manufacturing industries to boost economic growth. Trump may pursue a form of conservationist economic policy, using quotas and tariffs to curb competition, particularly from China.

While these measures could address some domestic economic challenges in the short term, the long-term consequences of such a protectionist approach remain unclear. Trump has also proposed giving tariff exemptions to large industrialists, but the social and economic repercussions of this move are yet to be seen. Overall, his vision seems to focus on building a more conservative socio-economic system.

Polling results so far indicate that Republicans are on track to win majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. As a result, the balance of power that has largely shaped US politics could be disrupted.

With strong public support behind him, questions arise about the consequences of an all-out use of power. In the end, it will take time to determine the full impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House following the presidential election.

During his campaign, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war in a single day. Given that the war is the product of centuries of geopolitical rivalry in Europe, such a resolution within a day seems highly improbable.

It remains unclear what his stance would be on resolving the conflicts in the Middle East. One thing is certain, however: Palestinian interests are unlikely to be prioritised, given Trump's strong support for Israel.

As a result, the moral stance of the new US administration on the Middle East remains uncertain. It is still unclear what the future of US-Iran relations will be.

Amid the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, key questions will emerge about the future of an independent Palestinian state, the stability of the region, and the prospects for peace. These issues will likely come to the forefront in the days ahead.

Regarding relations with Bangladesh, I do not foresee any major changes following the shift in US leadership. In the aftermath of 5 August, the Biden administration had pledged cooperation to help Bangladesh address its economic crisis.

I believe the Trump administration would continue this commitment, maintaining the continuity of US-Bangladesh relations.

In the current context, Bangladesh’s democratic transition is likely to receive support from Donald Trump, especially in terms of the reform process.

The US administration has a vested interest in ensuring stability in Bangladesh, as any instability there could ripple across South Asia. Consequently, Washington will expect Bangladesh to maintain both democracy and stability.

US-Bangladesh relations are shaped by both regional and geopolitical factors, as well as bilateral concerns. From a Republican perspective, particularly Trump's viewpoint, and in light of the US-China relationship, the White House will likely want Bangladesh to align with the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS).

Additionally, given the evolving dynamics of Bangladesh-India relations, it remains to be seen how a change in US leadership will influence this. It is possible that the US administration will leave the issue of ties between the two neighbouring countries to the two parties themselves.

If this happens, India may exert pressure on Bangladesh over various issues. Given China’s growing influence in the region, Donald Trump may seek to ease tensions between the two South Asian neighbours and encourage their relations to move forward along a more stable and normal path.

If thorny relations between Bangladesh and India persists, it could create an opening for China to further its influence in the region.

As a result, the Trump administration may take a more proactive role in preventing China from expanding its foothold in South Asia.

* M Humayun Kabir, is a former Ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States and President, BEI.