Why the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is escalating

For nearly six months, a deep conflict has been brewing – with its bouts of escalations and scaling down – between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the middle of the seesaw, an attack on a hospital for drug addicts took place on 16 March night following a resumption of the conflict on 27 February, a day before bombs were dropped on Iran.

The Af-Pak conflict did not receive the international media coverage it deserved, likely due to the overshadowing threat of a larger war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Pakistan, however, has repeatedly denied attacking the hospital, claiming instead that they targeted “at those infrastructures which are being used by the Afghan Taliban regime to support its multiple terror proxies”.

A ceasefire however has been announced due to Ramzan and Eid.

Three weeks into this flare-up, it is difficult to determine who is ‘winning’ the Af-Pak conflict, much like the uncertainty surrounding the Iran-US standoff. Consequently, it is necessary to look beyond wins and losses and analyse the narratives presented by both nations. Both sides of the conflict consist of Sunni Muslims. History shows that when external powers invaded – such as the Soviet union in 1979 or the U.S. in 2001 – Pashtuns on both sides of the border united in opposition. Yet, today, they are fighting each other.

One explanation remains constant: the dispute over the Durand Line, the contested border between the two countries. This friction fluctuates in intensity but remains a fundamental truth.

However, a bigger question arises: if the Durand Line has existed since 1893 and Pakistan was created nearly 80 years ago, why are both sides not fighting all the time in particular times in history?

In recent days in Kabul, I spoke with several analysts, military observers, former brigadier generals, and journalists. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, they all pointed to one primary cause: the United States'' policy regarding the control of Central and South Asia.

This latest round of fighting began just a day before the Iranian conflict escalated. Explaining the cause, a former Afghan Brigadier General noted that America has long desired to re-establish a base in Afghanistan.
"President Trump openly stated he wanted Bagram Airfield back because it was built entirely by the U.S. and still houses a vast amount of American weaponry. From there, monitoring and launching strikes against Iran would be much easier—which is why Trump sought to reclaim the base late last year,” he said.

Kabul, however, informed Washington in no uncertain terms that the Americans would never be allowed to build a base in their country again. Several Afghan ministers and government officials echoed this sentiment in interviews with Prothom Alo last October. The argument aligns with a March statement of the terrorist organisation Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) that said, “it is apparent that the Pakistani Army has presented itself to provide ‘services’ to the rogue American President Trump, in securing the Bagram base and retrieving (the American weapons and military equipment captured as spoils by the Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate) and returning them to America.”

Some Afghan observers argue that Washington consistently uses Pakistan’s help to create anarchy within Afghanistan. A senior journalist in Kabul told Prothom Alo: "There is a faction in Pakistan that tries to work with Afghanistan based on shared religious faith, seeking a Sharia-compliant Islamic state, like in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Pakistani state (which is not fully Sharia-based) tries to maintain good ties with the US for economic and geopolitical benefits. We are currently seeing top Pakistani leaders attempting to strengthen ties with Donald Trump. Naturally, Afghans feel Pakistan is fighting this war on behalf of America."

Pakistan sees things differently. Representatives of civil society close to the government do not believe Pakistan entered this fight in order to facilitate American grip over Afghanistan. Journalists in Peshawar, familiar with government thinking, told Prothom Alo that given the direction of events, Pakistan had no choice but to counter-attack.

Thousands – including civilians and the security personnel – have been killed in Pakistan in the last years and Pakistan accused Taliban of Afghanistan for allowing the Pakistan-based Taliban – Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – to provide a rear to launch attacks in the bordering areas inside Pakistan. The New York Times claimed in a February 26 article that Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Arif claimed on social media “our cup of patience has overflowed” and it now is an “open war between us and you.” However, the purported tweet is not available anymore.

Claiming that the Afghan Taliban is encouraging attacks, a journalist noted a "secret understanding" between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban (TTA) is an open secret in Pakistan’s north western bordering areas. “Under this understanding, the TTP supported the Afghan Taliban in their past war against US and Afghan government forces. In return, the now-governing Afghan Taliban would help the TTP establish an Islamic system in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s border districts.”

The argument had had its resonance on the Afghan side as well as a former officer of the Kabul Foreign Ministry underscored a complex reality. He noted, despite the detention of nearly 6,000 TTP fighters by the Afghan government, fully controlling the Mujhahideens is nearly impossible due to their religious ideological inspiration.

"They (TTP) want a Sharia-based state, which they have found in Afghanistan. Now they want the same in Pakistan. While the Afghan Taliban may desire a Sharia-based state, they do not always support the TTP''s specific fight in Pakistan. Yet, they are not in a position to control them either."

While traveling through Afghanistan, I met a Taliban Mujahid named Akhtar Jan, who is serving with the border force on the Iranian border. He noted that there is ethnically no difference between the border regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan. "We grew up and studied in the madrasas of Pakistan''s Quetta region," he told me.

"There were thousands of such madrasas where Afghan boys stayed during the twenty-year war against America, while crossing back into Afghanistan to fight. Now that the war is over, many have returned to Afghanistan to start families and find jobs, while others chose to stay behind. It is this group that is now in conflict with the Pakistani government,” said Jan.

Drawing on this, political analyst Moin Gul Chamkani told local Afghan media that Pakistan does not want to see a strong or independent system in Afghanistan. He believes that if the Taliban were to go to war directly against the TTP, it would contradict their own religious and political ideology, potentially leading to a mutiny or internal strife among their own fighters. Consequently, Afghanistan views the TTP as a ‘leverage tool’ against Pakistan.

Pakistani observers have also alleged Indian involvement, claiming India is assisting the Afghan Taliban to support the TTP and create chaos in Pakistan—a claim India has consistently denied.

Observers linked to the Afghan Taliban military believe these strikes are not isolated incidents. They argue Pakistan wants to keep Afghanistan within its ‘strategic depth’ to block Indian influence and integrate its regional position. Whenever TTP attacks increase within Pakistan, the military and government face immense domestic pressure. By conducting airstrikes on Afghanistan, Pakistan seeks to appease domestic public opinion and project a ‘tough stance.’

The ‘war’ between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not receiving much publicity due to the conflict in Iran. However, if one looks at the death toll, more people may have died on the Af-Pak border in the last six months. Sooner or later, the world will have to turn its gaze toward this 2,600-kilometer-long border.

* Suvojit Bagchi is Prothom Alo's Kolkata correspondent