Trump's win won't put Bangladesh under pressure

Donald Trump has won a landslide victory in the US election. Such a victory is rare in US history. Not only has Trump returned to power for the second time, but he has also won the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. In other words, by means of this election, Trump has secured the power to exert his singular influence over US politics.

As a result, Trump will no longer have any obstacle to implement the policies which he believes in and which he projected during the election. He will uphold the 'America First' policy, holding US interests above all. On the domestic front, he will enforce strict rules on immigration. He may even force those without proper immigration papers to leave the country. He will also enforce strict measures to ensure that no immigrants can enter the US from Mexico or through any other border.

He may also bring about radical changes in the energy, environment and tax policies. Above all, US politics will be completely "Trump-ed".

Two major conflicts prevail in the present-day world -- the Russian-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war (which has now extended to Lebanon). Trump had announced from beforehand that he would bring an end to these two conflicts. He has not, however, made it clear how he will do so. It is assumed that the one-sided support that the US has been giving Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war so far, will abate somewhat. While US military assistance to Ukraine may continue to an extent, there will be a drop in financial support.

Trump will want the European countries to extended financial assistance to Ukraine. Many apprehend that Trump may put pressure on for a peace accord, accepting the reality of the prevailing military presence in Ukraine territory. In that case, much of Ukraine's occupied territory will go over to Russian hands.

US support for Israel in the Hamas-Israel war will not only continue in Trump's second term, but will increase further. In Trump's first term we saw he had very close ties with Israel. Trump may put pressure on Hamas for a peace accord as directed. But Trump will make an effort to ensure that the Middle East war does not spread further.

Trump's attitude and policy towards Iran may become extremely stern. Trump firmly believes that Iran is the main reason behind the instability and the disruption of peace in the Middle East. Fresh military, economic and diplomatic pressure will come upon Iran.

The US Middle East policy may be revamped in light of the Trump policy. The Abraham Accords signed during Trump's term, which were placed somewhat on the backburner, may be revived. The Trump administration may use pressure or persuasion to make Israel more acceptable to the Middle East countries.

In his first term, Trump had a tough stance regarding China. That will be even tougher in his second term. He will increase pressure on China particularly in the area of trade. Fresh tariff will be imposed on products exported by China to the US. China will face major obstacles to its exports of electric vehicles, solar products and mobile phone technology to the US market. The US may enter into a technology war with China.

The US will also keep a sharp watch on China, militarily speaking. The US will be prepared to ensure that China cannot create any pressure on Taiwan. The US will also want Taiwan to take initiative for its own defence. Presently Taiwan spends 3 per cent of its budget on defence. Trump will want Taiwan to increase this considerably.

The US has been attaching much importance to its regional strategic polices such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy. This will continue during Trump's term, and its importance will even increase further in some instances. During the Biden administration we saw after the advent of AUKUS (the trilateral security partnership between the US, Australia and the UK), the importance of Quad (the security grouping of the US, India, Australia and Japan) decreased to a degree. That is because AUKUS included hard security power components. Traditional security will gain precedence over non-traditional security during the Trump term.

The US has strategic partnership with our neighbour India. India is important to the US as part of its strategy to thwart China. This strategy will continue and not undergo any change during Trump's second term.
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has personal ties with Trump, but this is often over exaggerated. Personal relations or sentiment hardly have any place in foreign relations, particularly when it comes to a superpower's relations with any country. Realpolitik is all that matters. Pragmatically speaking, the US will do whatever it needs to do in its own national interests. Personal friendship does not factor in.

The stable relationship that the US has with India will continue to be stable. But the US has adopted an expanded view regarding its future sphere of influence. This will stand to be a bone of contention for India in many areas. India can use its clout now to enter many areas easily. In the future it may not have that scope. The US will adopt a stern stance in this regard.  

Bangladesh enjoys good relations with the US. That will continue in Trump's second term. This will not face any major challenge. We must keep in mind that many countries are considerably higher up than Bangladesh on the US list of countries with which it has foreign relations. Bangladesh does not loom very large in US' national interest considerations.

Much of Indian media has exaggerated issues pertaining to the direction of Bangladesh-US relations. They are trying to create a scare. That is not at all realistic.

It is both baseless and unrealistic to imagine that Trump's win will create any form of pressure on Bangladesh's interim government. The interim government is working towards restoring democracy in Bangladesh. This is in keeping with US policy. The US wants true democracy in Bangladesh. The US and Trump will continue to support the process for election and restoration of democracy in Bangladesh within a realistic timeframe.
Many on social media have expressed their view that Bangladesh will be in a difficult position with Trump back at the helm. This is nothing but unrealistic ideas. Some quarters may deliberately be touting such ideas to invigorate their activists and supports. But this is nothing but absurdity.

* Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd) is President, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.      
* This column appeared in the print an online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir