About 30 to 35 per cent of the country's people live in cities or municipal areas. They are the ones who shape the nation's politics, economy, and culture. There is hardly any example of them ever reaching agreement on an issue. We often hear the phrase “national consensus.” This is simply an elusive fantasy. If five people gather to discuss a topic, six opinions emerge. Five people, five different views. After hearing everyone else, the first person changes their own opinion as well.
Yet we continue to talk about consensus. We have to. Otherwise, politics cannot function. Still, we know that it is little more than a wishful construct. We keep expressing our views, and while doing so we say, “the people want this.” But “the people” are not a single, indivisible entity. They are divided into many groups. Each group has its own opinions, perspectives, and behaviour. It is clear that there is not even one hundred per cent consensus on the issue of banning the activities of the Awami League.
We often say that the nation was united in 1971. It sounds good. In reality, it is a myth. We were not united. Many of us wanted independence; many did not. Some simply went with the tide, and some remained silent. Eventually, the country became free of Pakistan. Then each of us began constructing our own narrative. These narratives do not match one another. Some of them are, in fact, outright contradictory.
The interim government banned the activities of the Awami League through an executive order. There are allegations that members of the party are plunderers, authoritarian rulers, and fascists. From 2009 to 2024, under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, the party established what many describe as a dynastic rule. All of this may be true. But has there been any case filed against the Awami League as a party?
Many of the party’s leaders and activists face cases in court. Many have been arrested. Many are in hiding. Many have left the country. Broad murder charges have been filed against many of them. During the mass uprising of 2024, countless people were shot dead in various places by state security forces. In connection with these incidents, each case may have as many as a thousand or more accused persons. It is said that in many places, overzealous and opportunistic individuals inserted names at will. The police accepted these cases.
Because murder charges have been filed so indiscriminately, these cases are unlikely to withstand scrutiny in court. Under military rule, authorities can do as they please; there is no appeal against martial law. But when a country has a civilian government, it is required to follow the law. As a result, it may turn out that most of those accused in these murder cases will ultimately be acquitted. One wonders whether the cases were structured this way precisely to make it easier for them to be released. Instead, cases could have been brought on the basis of specific allegations of corruption and abuse of power.
The issue of banning the Awami League’s activities was problematic from the outset. Under the slogan that “the people want this,” the interim government first prohibited the party’s activities after a small group of activists from a minor political party staged demonstrations. The Election Commission then canceled the Awami League’s registration. Was this done on the basis of a court order or verdict? I have not heard of any such ruling. It appears that the Election Commission acted in accordance with the government’s wishes.
No matter how much the Commission now claims to be independent, that claim is unlikely to carry much weight. The government could instead have taken Awami League, as a party, to court. Subsequently, the current BNP government converted into law the ordinance issued during the interim government’s tenure that had banned the Awami League’s activities.
What does public opinion in this country actually say? Can public opinion be determined simply by reading newspaper reports or listening to politicians’ claims? Has there been any survey on the matter? The only way to determine whether the public wants or rejects a political party is through an election. Through elections, citizens either accept or reject political parties. That is a sovereign right of the citizen. The government has taken away that right.
Therefore, Awami League can legitimately argue that the people have not rejected them. Rather, the government, driven by political vengeance, has kept them out of the electoral process. Two examples are worth mentioning here. First, on 26 March 1971, the military government of Yahya Khan banned Awami League. Second, in late July 2024, the “elected” government of Sheikh Hasina banned Jamaat-e-Islami. Everyone knows how those episodes ended.
The government has banned Awami League’s activities. Newspapers routinely report arrests of certain leaders of “Awami League, whose activities have been banned.” Officially, Awami League does not exist. Yet, in reality, it still does.
Bangladesh is a small country, with an area of less than 150,000 square kilometers. Yet it is densely populated. How many people live here? Some say 170 million; others say 180 million. Another census will be held in five years, by which time the population may approach 200 million. Do we know how many of these people support Awami League?
Hasina will not return voluntarily. No matter how many people challenge her with slogans such as “Come back if you have courage,” she will not come. No one returns without a guarantee of complete security
Can a party that has been active in politics for so many years and has governed the country for a long time, simply be erased through legislation? Voters themselves might have rejected the Awami League in an election. In fact, immediately after August 2024, the political atmosphere suggested that possibility. But by delaying elections for a year and a half through various excuses, the interim government has allowed the Awami League to regain much of its political vitality. How long can the party be contained through police measures alone?
Now let us turn to another issue. Does Awami League genuinely want to return to politics? Judging by its behaviour, that does not seem to be the case. The party’s president, Sheikh Hasina, appears to regard herself as the owner of the party. Countless party leaders and activists view her as a saviour, a messiah. They believe the party has no future without her. The cult of personality and dynasty devotion has reached such a level that they cannot even imagine an Awami League without Hasina. Hasina knows this well. It was she who cultivated this mindset within the party.
From time to time, people speak of a “refined Awami League.” Various names circulate as potential leaders. The problem is that Sheikh Hasina will not relinquish the party presidency. She understands perfectly well that this position is the source of her power. Once she gives it up, she has little concern for what happens to the party. But she also knows that if she loses the post, she herself will have nowhere left to stand politically. That is why, if Awami League returns, it will try to return with Hasina at its center.
Under the current circumstances, however, that appears impossible.
Sheikh Hasina is a convicted defendant facing the death penalty. The notion that she would willingly return to face execution is pure fantasy. Everyone knows that she values herself and her family more than the country or the party. If she had not anticipated the need to leave the country, how was she able to arrange for her family members and relatives to go abroad beforehand? Such devotion to one’s relatives will remain an example for years to come. The only relative who stayed behind and was caught was Amir Hossain Amu. Having once aligned himself with the so-called “reformists,” he had fallen out of Hasina’s favour. Many party leaders and activists also remained behind, people for whom the Awami League is almost a religion.
Hasina will not return voluntarily. No matter how many people challenge her with slogans such as “Come back if you have courage,” she will not come. No one returns without a guarantee of complete security.
No one knows exactly what is in Hasina’s mind. However, many within the Awami League believe that some external force will once again restore them to power. Keeping that hope alive, they occasionally raise the slogan “Joy Bangla” and make their presence known.
* Mohiuddin Ahmad is a writer and researcher
* The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author
* This column appeared in Bangla in Prothom Alo print and online and has been translated by Ayesha Kabir for Prothom Alo English Online.