The chief advisor on many occasions and at various events has said that the election will be held in December this year. The election commission has also said they are preparing for the election with December in view. However, neither of them has issued any official announcement to this end. We can conjecture that the election will be held in December.
However, nothing can be said with absolute certainty. A number of political parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in particular, have demanded that the election be held in December. BNP leaders have every day repeated this demand in their speeches and statements. It is clear that they are putting pressure on the government for the election to be held soon.
BNP has made it clear that they want the Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) election to be held first. They will not accept any other election before the parliamentary election. By “any other election”, they are meaning the local government elections. A certain BNP leader said that a minor issue like local government elections should not be given priority.
Are the local government elections anything to be trivialised? Perhaps to the general people, the national election is not quite that relevant as the local government elections. The people approach the government for services. Most of these services are availed through the local government.
If we could rewind and listen to what has been said at the Jatiya Sangsad over the past five decades, many would cover their ears. The members of parliament have used the Jatiya Sangsad as a forum for abusive language, vitriol, personal attack and ridicule. It would be nice if they moved away from that soon, but there is little chance. The question hangs in the air as to what another parliament will give us. The old faces surface again and again.
And now there is a new problem. The leaders of the anti-discrimination movement have formed a new political party. They have called this National Citizen Party (NCP) or Jatiya Nagorik Party which we can call NCP for short. They are gradually heading towards politics centered on state power. This is causing discomfort for many.
Who will be the trump card in the equations among the political sides in the coming election, is the million dollar question -- NCP, Jamaat or anyone else? Jatiya Party can't be discarded either
NCP has come up with two clear proposals or statements. They speak of a second republic and they want a new constitution. That is why they have proposed a constituent assembly to be formed by means of an election. They have also said that the constituent assembly election and the national parliament election can be held at the same time. This is not clear.
Are they talking about two separate forums? One is the constituent assembly and the other the Jatiya Sangsad? I think what they want to say is that if there is a national election, then the elected members will first form a constituent assembly. Once the constituent assembly comes up with a new constitution, it will automatically become the national parliament.
That is where the problem lies. BNP is in favour reviving the mutilated 1972 constitution with its 16 amendments. NCP wants the 1972 constitution to be abolished and a new constitution to be drawn up. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has now more or less reached maturity in politics of power. They want to move away from BNP's patronage and spread their own wings. They want a new constitution too.
The other small parties may be old but they haven't been able to cross the stage of crawling along the slippery slope of politics. They have three alternatives - one, forming an alliance with BNP; two, forming an alliance with NCP; and, three, forming an alliance among themselves and advancing on their own strength. They are many in number. The leaders have been waiting for a long time. They now want to enter the 10-storey building on Manik Miah Avenue. If they are given a few seats, they will go under the BNP or the NCP umbrella.
Even if they contest in the election as a separate alliance, they will have a behind-the-scenes understanding with one of the two parties, as Jamaat did with BNP in 1991.
We will see all sorts of equations regarding the election in the days to come. In the politics of understanding or compromise, the politicians often chant the mantra -- “there is no last word in politics”. We often talk about “somersaulting politics”.
That was about the national election. Then there are demands concerning the local government elections too. It is clear that there will be “for” and “against” quarters in this connection. BNP is not against local government elections, they want the national election first. The question is, why?
To the BNP, the national parliament election is the most important. They fear that if the local government election is held first, the focus will shift away from the “main election”. They also contend, the present “unelected government” wants to remain in power for an extended span of time and so is dilly-dallying over the local government elections and the national parliament polls.
Certain critics say that there are several reasons why BNP is not in favour of holding the local government elections first. Firstly, this will lead to a “resurrection” of Awami League elements at the local level. Secondly, the leaders elected in the local government elections will influence voters at the national election. Thirdly, if the national elections are held first, the MPs can dabble in nomination trade at the local government elections, which will not be possible if the local polls are held first.
Is the matter of the constituent assembly election versus the national parliament election actually a conflicting one? For example, if a constituent assembly is in place, the matter of the constitution is settled and then the national parliament commences, what is the problem? If any party wants the previous constitution to remain intact, they can decide upon that as a majority in the constituent assembly.
And those who want a new constitution can seek the mandate of their proposed constitution and contest in the election. If they are elected, they can draw up the new constitution. There is no point in squabbling over the issue. Everyone should highlight their proposals or manifestos and let the people decide. See whose side they take.
Who will be the trump card in the equations among the political sides in the coming election, is the million dollar question -- NCP, Jamaat or anyone else? Jatiya Party can't be discarded either. It is registered with the election commission, despite carrying the stigma of being “collaborators” of the autocrats. And Awami League? Will they contest openly or join hands within any other party behind the scenes? That is food for thought too.
Meanwhile, a NCP leader has come up with a rather explosive statement. He has said that such a big uprising wasn't held simply for an election. He said, forget about any election before Sheikh Hasina is tried. That is very significant. His words indicate a fear that if an elected government comes to power, the trial process pertaining to the killings of the July uprising may be delayed.
Coming to the issue of a constituent assembly, will the decision be based on general majority or voters of a minimum two-thirds of the members? We recall the 1970 constituent assembly election of Pakistan was held on the basis of a “legal framework order” with three major conditions: the constitution must be compiled within 120 days, this will be passed on the basis of general majority, and the constituent assembly will be dissolved if the president does not approve of this. Therein lay the seeds that led to the split of Pakistan.
Whatever the case may be, without political consensus a new constitution cannot be taken up nor can the old one remain in place. Given the disunity among the political parties, the venom being spewed out against each other, the conflicts and contentions, it will be difficult to reach a national consensus on the question of the constitution.
* Mohiuddin Ahmad is a writer and researcher
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir