We've crossed the boundary to the point of no return. The journey has begun. Humanity is very close to creating digital super intelligence. Even so, it still doesn't feel as strange as it should.
Robots haven't started walking the streets yet. We don't speak to AI day and night. People still die from illness. We still can't travel into space whenever we want. Much of the universe is still unknown to us.
Yet, we've created some technologies that are in many ways more intelligent than humans. These can increase a user's capabilities many times over. We have already accomplished what seemed to be the most impossible task. It was very difficult to create GPT-4 and 3. But the knowledge we gained through this process is what will take us a long way.
AI will contribute to the world in many ways. But the biggest benefit will be that science will advance much faster from now on. As a result, human productivity will increase. This could lead to a better quality of life and a much brighter future. It feels good to think about how much we can achieve in the future.
What the 2030s will be like
In a sense, ChatGPT has already become more powerful than any person in history. Billions of people use it every day, and its importance is growing. Even a small new capability in AI can have a huge positive impact. On the other hand, if a small error or misconception affects billions of people, it can also have major negative consequences.
By 2025, we will have AI agents that can truly do thoughtful work. Writing computer code, in particular, will no longer be the same. Perhaps as early as 2026, we will get AI that can make new discoveries or think up new ideas. By 2027, robots may arrive that will work like humans, not just in the online world, but in the real world.
Many more people will now be able to create software and artworks. The demand for these will increase. Those who are experienced will continue to do much better work than newcomers—if they embrace these new tools. In short, by 2030, a single person will be able to do much more on their own, and this change will be noticeable. Those who understand this will reap the benefits.
On the whole, the 2030s may not feel very different. People will still love their families, express creativity, play games, and swim in lakes. But yes, in some important ways, the 2030s will be different from any other time in history. We don't know how far intelligence that surpasses humanity can go, but we are about to find out.
In the 2030s, intelligence and power—the ability to generate ideas and turn them into reality—will become essential (for humans to have). For a long time, these two things were the biggest obstacles to human progress. If we have unlimited intelligence and power (along with good governance), we can theoretically achieve anything we want.
One year of research in one month
We are already living with extraordinary digital intelligence. After the initial shock, most people have adapted to it. We now watch with wonder as AI beautifully writes a paragraph. It won't be long before it replaces 'paragraph' with ‘novel’. The ability to create a small programme amazes us today, but soon we might see AI creating entire companies.
This is the nature of 'singularity'. The amazing becomes normal in our eyes, and later, it becomes the 'minimum expectation'.
Many scientists are already saying that thanks to AI, their productivity has increased two to three times. Advanced AI is important for many reasons, but the biggest is that we can use AI to do more research on AI itself.
If we can complete a decade's worth of research in a year or a month, the pace of development is clearly going to change completely. Of course, it's not like AI is automatically updating its own code, but it can be considered an early form of a self-improvement process.
The triumph of ideas
Let's say, a million humanoid robots were created with the old method. If these robots then take over the entire supply chain—from extracting minerals from mines to driving trucks and running factories—it will be easy to create more robots, more chip factories, and more data centers. It goes without saying that the pace of progress will change completely.
Technological progress will continue to accelerate. People will adapt, just as they have shown the ability to do before. Yes, there will be some difficult things—many types of jobs will disappear completely.
But at the same time, the world will become so rich so quickly that we will be able to think about entirely new policies—ones that were unimaginable in the old society. Perhaps a new social contract won't be implemented all at once, but if we look back a few decades from now, we will understand that these gradual changes have combined to create a major transformation.
We (referring to the entire AI industry, not just Open AI) are creating a brain for the world. It will be a lot more personalised, and a lot more easy to use. Only one thing will be needed, a good idea. In the startup world, technical people used to mock those who went around with ideas. It now seems that the time has come for those 'idea people'.
If I had told you in 2020 that the world would be at this stage today, you probably would have thought I was crazy. The predictions for 2030 might not seem so unrealistic now. I hope that on this journey towards super intelligence, we can move forward smoothly, quickly, and peacefully.