The ruling Awami League is set to embark on the final phase of the electoral journey today by bringing almost all the parties represented in the current parliament on board as partners and allies.
Initially, the ruling party had announced that the partners of the 14-party alliance would be allocated 7 seats, but at the last moment, there may be a reduction of 1 seat from that allocation. On the other hand, the Awami League has finalised the concession of 26 seats to the ally Jatiya Party (JaPa).
Today, Sunday, is the last day to withdraw nomination papers, marking the crucial moment when it will be decided who will run under the boat symbol and who will step aside.
According to sources within the Awami League, members of the 14 parties will be assigned the boat symbol on the seats allotted to them. The final nomination letter signed by party chief Sheikh Hasina will be issued today, Sunday.
Once submitted, the candidature of Awami League candidates in these constituencies will be canceled, and instructions will be given to withdraw the nominations of party candidates in the seats allocated to JaPa.
Thus far, the candidature of five candidates nominated by Awami League has been canceled. However, these candidates have the opportunity to appeal to the court. In case the candidacy is not reinstated even after the appeal, Awami League might support allies in some of these constituencies. Additionally, independent candidates of Awami League may receive party support in some other seats.
Awami League is inclined not to allocate more seats beyond the agreed-upon 7 seats with the 14-party alliance members. While the Workers' Party is assured of 3 seats, there might be a last-minute change resulting in the loss of one seat.
In this situation, the members of the 14 parties are attempting to meet with the Prime Minister. However, she is not willing to meet with them before the deadline for withdrawing nominations, indicating that no new seats are likely to be allocated to the alliance.
Among the members, Tariqat Federation Chairman Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari is striving to secure the Chattogram-2 seat again. His cousin's son, Supreme Party Chairman Syed Saifuddin Ahmed, is also vying for the same seat.
Saifuddin Ahmed recently met with General Secretary Obaidul Quader at Awami League's Dhanmondi office on Saturday and expressed optimism about receiving positive signals regarding his candidacy.
According to party sources, partners and allies of the Awami League have devised a plan to provide formal and informal concessions in all 40 seats. The discomfort of partners and allies with independent candidates has become apparent. However, until yesterday, the Awami League had not agreed to remove the independent candidates.
Leaders within the Awami League believe that after conceding 40 seats through compromise, it would be challenging for them to attract voters in the seats where partners and allies will have more candidates.
In such a scenario, it is possible to garner support for the candidates of Awami League and the party leaders who have become independent candidates.
Therefore, the election might not be as festive if independent candidates withdraw. Some policymakers within the Awami League believe that it would not be surprising if independent candidates win in 35-40 seats.
JaPa on last-minute bargains
According to sources from both Awami League and Jatiya Party (JaPa), during the recent negotiations, Jatiya Party initially sought 50 seats. This number was later negotiated down to 40 and finally to 35 seats in the meeting on Friday night. In that meeting, Awami League ultimately assured to allocate 26 seats to JaPa, marking the final decision so far.
Awami League's general secretary, Obaidul Quader, held two rounds of meetings with central leaders at the party's Dhanmondi office yesterday evening. Following the meeting, Quader spoke to the Prime Minister on the phone.
On the other hand, JaPa leaders made efforts yesterday to secure 9 more seats. These included the seats of JaPa co-chairman Ruhul Amin Howladar (Patuakhali-1), Salma Islam (Dhaka-17), GM Quader's wife and presidium member Sherifa Quader (Dhaka-18), Rezaul Islam Bhuiyan (Brahmanbaria-4), Zahirul Alam (Manikganj-1 or 3), Mostafa Al Mahmud (Jamalpur-2), Shafiqul Islam (Dhaka-13 or 14), Jasim Uddin Bhuiyan (Netrakona-3), and Zahirul Islam (Tangail-7) seat. Awami League has agreed to concede Ruhul Amin Howlader's seat, but it has reversed its position on the seat of his wife, Nasreen Jahan (Barishal-6), despite a previous agreement.
Attempts by JaPa continued until the latest news last night. Around 9:00 pm, the co-chairman of the party, Kazi Firoz Rashid, told Prothom Alo that the situation had not yet cleared regarding the seat agreement.
Meanwhile, supporters of some leaders who were not nominated and were not part of the negotiations, marched in front of the JaPa chairman's Banani office yesterday afternoon. At that time, no top-level leader of the party was in the office.
JaPa could not be sure about two seats in Dhaka until yesterday evening. The two seats are Dhaka-6 of Kazi Firoz Rashid and Dhaka-4 of Syed Abu Hossain.
Awami League sources say that although there is speculation that JaPa will get the two seats, they have not confirmed the concession on the seats. The top leadership of the party is not willing to share seats with partners and allies in Dhaka. For this reason, Rashed Khan Menon, president of the Workers' Party, was not allocated his three-term seat in Dhaka-8. This time he has been given Barishal-2 seat.
A central leader of Awami League told Prothom Alo on condition of anonymity that Dhaka is the focal point of any movement or struggle. Therefore, the top leadership of Awami League wants to keep their party's parliament members in all seats in Dhaka.
Focus on five seats
The Election Commission has rejected the candidacy of five individuals nominated by Awami League, citing reasons such as defaulting on debt, dual citizenship, and incomplete case information in their affidavits. The affected candidates are Shammi Ahmed (Barishal-4), Salah Uddin Ahmed (Cox's Bazar-1), Enamul Haque (Jashore-4), Abdus Salam (Mymensingh-9), and Shamim Haque (Faridpur-3). However, there is still an opportunity for them to appeal to the court.
Party sources indicate that independent candidates from the Awami League might receive support in three of these seats. Additionally, there are discussions within the Awami League leadership about supporting allies in two of the affected seats.
The party is considering supporting Kalyan Party Chairman Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, who left the BNP alliance and is nominated for the Cox's Bazar-1 seat. In Faridpur-3, industrialist AK Azad, who did not secure the party's nomination, also stands a chance. In Jashore-4, where BNM's Sukriti Kumar Mondal and Trinomool BNP's M Shabbir Ahmed are competing, there is speculation that one of them may receive the concession for the seat.
However, Ranjit Kumar Roy, the current Awami League member of parliament, has also become an independent candidate for this seat.
Party sources indicate that by this afternoon, the matter of seat compromise will be mostly clarified. The official election campaign is set to commence tomorrow, Monday, following the allocation of symbols.
Awami League Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim stated to Prothom Alo yesterday that the seat agreement is nearly finalised, and official notifications will be sent to the partners Sunday, marking the commencement of the final phase towards a fair election.